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I am trying to figure out if this calculation is correct.

Villain is a loose passive player. I think he views my at semi-LAG'ish


HU SnG, 1000$, iPoker

Stacks:
Villain got 1200
I got 1800

I raise pre-flop to 60 with Q9
Villain calls

Flop: J Q 4 Pot: 120
Villain checks
I bet 90
Villain calls

Turn: 9 Pot: 300
Villain checks
I bet 250
Villain check-raises all-in for 1050 – 800 more to me


My calculation:
I got 33% in pot odds. I need to be good 1/3 of the time to make a breakeven call.

Number of combinations that beats me:
KT, both suited and offsuited = 16 combinations – I suppouse villain plays all of he's KT like this as he is a loose/passive player.

T8 is also 16 combinations. But I discount ¾ of them because I suppouse he folds a lot of them on the flop. = 4 combinations

QJ is 6 combinations but I suppouse we check-raises almost always on the flop so I just him 1 combination of this

44 is 3 combinations but I will also only give him 1 combination of this because I think he is most likely to check-raise these on the flop

I will give him 0 combinations of QQ. There is only 1 combination left due to the blockers and I think he eiter 3-bets this pre-flop og check-raises of the flop.
I will also give him 0 combinations of JJ because of the same reason

In total that is: 22 combinations that beats me.

Because I need to be good at least 1/3 of the time to make a +EV due to me pot-odds I need to find 22/3 combinations that I beat = 7.3 combinations

I suppouse he always plays J9 like this which is 6 combinations due to the blockers. Occasionally he will also play KQ like this. I will be conservative and just give him 1 combination of this.

He proberly also sometimes got a WTF combination like for example QT.. I will give him just one WTF combination.

Combinations that I beat = 8 combinations.

With these calculations I just a very thin +EV call.

Do you agree with my calculations?

Do you agree with my calculations?

For the purpose of discussion:
I think you leave out 4xQ9 for the split, at the least.

And there are no flush draws mentioned, which are favourable to you.

We don't know his 3bet percentage. Is he 3betting AQ/AJ preflop? Oh, and can we really eliminate slow-playing sets in the play of a loose-passive villain?

Rhino,
So glad the term "WTF combo" is catching on .

You made two mistakes in your calculations:

1) You completely ignored the fact that you have 4 outs when he has KT and he has 2 outs when he has J9, etc. This isn't a huge huge deal given the that the range you gave him doesn't include many hands where he has many outs when behind, so if you think these ranges are right, you might ignore it in-game. But away from the table you should look into how

2) If you need to be good 1/3 of the time, then you're beat 2/3 of the time. So you have to be ahead HALF as often as you're behind, not 1/3. So in this case you need 11 combos that beat you, not 7.3. This is a pretty common mistake. Maybe it'll be easier if you think that you're getting 2:1 and therefore need to beat half as many combos as beat you.

Cool that you're doing this. Keep working at it.

Thank you! Very valueable

@Slowjoe
Good point about the Q9's - I forgot to think about that. And I actually don't think that this particular player will 3-bet AJ and AQ... Maybe AQ half of the time, but I am not sure

@Noah
I have tried to pokerstove our ranges.

When I get it all-in against the range I have mentioned that I am behind I got 9% equity to win the pot.

When villain gets it all-in with the range I have mentioned that I am a favorite against he got 18% equity to win the pot.

In total there are 30 combinations of hands in my range estimation.

He got 22 combinations that beat me.
Therefore: When I call I will get my money in as an 9:91 underdog (22/30*100) = 73% of the time.

There is 8 combination that I beat. When villain is an underdog he got 18% to win the pot.
Therefore: When I call villain will, (8/30*100) 27% of the time have 18% equity to win the pot.

Can you please tell me if this is calculated correct?
And how do I proceed from here? What shall I do with these numbers?

I of course understand that this calculation is making my call even more -EV