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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (Mid Stakes)

Time Link to 00:04:07

BTN left:
From what you have seen so far, what is the Bottom of your calling range against his Check-Shove?

Time Link to 00:09:45

BTN Right:
I think this is kinda interesting, when saibot turns FD+GS.
Is raising the turn a viable option?

What do you expect him to X-Raise the Flop with? Ax? 8x? 76? There arent many TwoPair combos possible, because he 3-bets some Ax hands and maybe he dont even has a lot of FD-Combos since he 3-Bets some of KcXc, QcXc, JcXc too.

Time Link to 00:16:18

Very interesting hand. I took the time to really break it down. Let me know what u thought


His fcb was ~ 83%
In that 83% Im convincved that there is not much pure air that would go ahead and 3 barrel without any picked up equity on the turn.
Because of that, the only bluffing combos I would give him are
Js2,Js3,Js4,Js5,Js6, K8 (24 combos)

You think there are more like 45s, 82o?
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River checking back range: Q2,Q3,Q4,Q5,Q6,Q8 (72 combos)
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River valuebetting range:
QK, KK, As2,As3,As4,As5,As6,As8,As9,AJ,AK | T9,Q7,QT,Q9,AsT,AQ | 77,TT,QQ,AA | 86,J8,KJ Js7s,Js6s,Js5s,Js4s,Js3s,Js2s,7s6s,7s5s,7s4s,7s3s,7s2s,6s5s,6s4s,6s3s,6s2s,5s4s,5s3s,5s2s,4s3s,4s2s,3s2s | AsJs,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s (191 combos)

If he is bluffcatching with AT, much because of the line we took. He might also call with worse hands like:
QK, KK, As2,As3,As4,As5,As6,As8,As9,AJ,AK (59)
Maybe abit more likely: T9,Q7,QT,Q9,AsT,AQ (48)
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Calls 100%: 77,TT,QQ,AA, 86,J8,KJ (56), Js7s,Js6s,Js5s,Js4s,Js3s,Js2s,7s6s,7s5s,7s4s,7s3s,7s2s,6s5s,6s4s,6s3s,6s2s,5s4s,5s3s,5s2s,4s3s,4s2s,3s2s (21)
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Raises: AsJs,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s (7)


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Our flop, and turn check-calling range that we might turn into bluffs on the river: KT,JT,T8,T6s,T5s,T4s,T3s,T2s, 88, 78,98,J9,J7 (105 combos)

Value: Ks8s,Ks7s,Ks6s,Ks5s,Ks4s,Ks3s,Ks2s,Js7s,Js6s,Js5s,Js4s,Js3s,Js2s,8s7s,8s6s,8s5s,8s4s,7s6s,7s5s,7s4s,6s5s,6s4s,6s3s,5s4s,5s3s,4s3s (26 combos) + mby J8ss

131 total
26/131=19,8% value


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So in other words. 25% of the time he checks back the river with his weak Qx and we win the pot. The other 75% of the time he bets with his valuerange. Then its 29-56% chance that he is bluffcatching from anything from QK to AA. Since he only needs 31,1% equity to call, and he has 80,2% equity against our river raising range, he should call.
3% of the time we lose when he 3bets with Asxs

We could also take this line for value with J8,KJ and 68 because of how wide his calling raise should be.

Time Link to 00:08:38

VS his flop call, turn checking range, river checking range: 34s,35s (6) - 22,44,55,77,88 (30)
VS betting range: AJ,A9,A8s,A7s,A5s,A4s,A3s,A2s (41) (and mby some Tx that he checked on the turn, that he is now betfolding like T8s,T7s
I really like the check-raise on the river, but if he is not calling with AJ he is obv not calling with the worse Ax. So what about minraising, or overbet leading the river to try and extract some extra value?

Time Link to 00:22:14

Would you really give him that many Tx that he does not checkraise the turn with, thinking of how many Ax we can have? Or J9,Q9,QJ that he does not lead out the turn with?

When i broke down the hand this is what i came up with, and please comment if there is anything i could add, or forgot or anything at all

His river bluff-raising range in that spot Kd7d,Kd6d,Kd4d,Kd3d,Kd2d,Qd7d,Qd6d,Qd4d,Qd3d,Qd2d,Jd6d,Jd4d,Jd3d,Jd2d,9d4d,9d3d,7d4d,7d3d,6d4d,6d3d,4d3d,4d2d (22 combos)
Value: T8,88,AT,55 (18 combos)
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A) A small 3bet is good if he is the type of player that does not 4bet jam over us with his air, even though he realizes that we rep only pocket fives. Whats interesting though, is that if we only calculate for the missed diamonds, and not the 97s,J9,Q9,QJ we find out that its exactly break even if we make it 92$ over his 46$, in the 75$ pot. He must fold 55% of the time, and 22/40 is exactly 55%. Which means that a bet less than that is +EV, or if he has any combo at all except for the diaomonds. So if we then add the 79s,J9,Q9,QJ (52 combos) aswell then its obviously a very easy 3bet. Once again, IF he is the guy who does not jam over with air

B)
If he is capable of 4bet jamming over with air, and if he has the 79s,J9,Q9,QJ, then its more profitable for us to be 3bet jamming. 203,92$ to win 75,5$, he only needs to fold 73% of the time. 18/92 (52+22+18) gives us 80,5% fold equity if we jam. And we obviously are not getting the right price if he only has the missed diamonds.

Whats really crucial about this hand though, is knowing what he is doing what with

BTN left:
From what you have seen so far, what is the Bottom of your calling range against his Check-Shove?

Without seeing the hole cards of some of the hands, we're probably only bet/calling flushes, but given that we've seen he's tricky and we can have a good number of Jx, overpairs, 3x, that might be inclined to bet/fold when he checkraises, we might need to be bet/calling some of those showdownable hands. I guess we'd be a little happier to bet/call 3x than Jx simply because with Jx we'd block some of the hands he might want to turn into bluff, but it's probably a small consideration considering people who like to c/r rivers like that tend to be the type who do it too much anyway. Basically, a guy who has that play in his bag of tricks is usually the same guy who pulls it out of his bag too often, so all of the showdown value becomes basically the same in terms of bluff catching.

BTN Right:
I think this is kinda interesting, when saibot turns FD+GS.
Is raising the turn a viable option?

What do you expect him to X-Raise the Flop with? Ax? 8x? 76? There arent many TwoPair combos possible, because he 3-bets some Ax hands and maybe he dont even has a lot of FD-Combos since he 3-Bets some of KcXc, QcXc, JcXc too.

Interesting thoughts, I agree somewhat, it could be a viable option. Calling is reasonable too because we have good implied odds on our outs when he is bluffing. If he's not bluffing we don't have much fold equity on this turn. If we knew he had more bare top pairs in his range then I like raising better, if instead it's just 2pair/straight/set/air then I think we do better by calling with our equity + implied odds.

Very interesting hand. I took the time to really break it down. Let me know what u thought


His fcb was ~ 83%
In that 83% Im convincved that there is not much pure air that would go ahead and 3 barrel without any picked up equity on the turn.
Because of that, the only bluffing combos I would give him are
Js2,Js3,Js4,Js5,Js6, K8 (24 combos)

You think there are more like 45s, 82o?
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River checking back range: Q2,Q3,Q4,Q5,Q6,Q8 (72 combos)
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River valuebetting range:
QK, KK, As2,As3,As4,As5,As6,As8,As9,AJ,AK | T9,Q7,QT,Q9,AsT,AQ | 77,TT,QQ,AA | 86,J8,KJ Js7s,Js6s,Js5s,Js4s,Js3s,Js2s,7s6s,7s5s,7s4s,7s3s,7s2s,6s5s,6s4s,6s3s,6s2s,5s4s,5s3s,5s2s,4s3s,4s2s,3s2s | AsJs,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s (191 combos)

If he is bluffcatching with AT, much because of the line we took. He might also call with worse hands like:
QK, KK, As2,As3,As4,As5,As6,As8,As9,AJ,AK (59)
Maybe abit more likely: T9,Q7,QT,Q9,AsT,AQ (48)
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Calls 100%: 77,TT,QQ,AA, 86,J8,KJ (56), Js7s,Js6s,Js5s,Js4s,Js3s,Js2s,7s6s,7s5s,7s4s,7s3s,7s2s,6s5s,6s4s,6s3s,6s2s,5s4s,5s3s,5s2s,4s3s,4s2s,3s2s (21)
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Raises: AsJs,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s (7)


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Our flop, and turn check-calling range that we might turn into bluffs on the river: KT,JT,T8,T6s,T5s,T4s,T3s,T2s, 88, 78,98,J9,J7 (105 combos)

Value: Ks8s,Ks7s,Ks6s,Ks5s,Ks4s,Ks3s,Ks2s,Js7s,Js6s,Js5s,Js4s,Js3s,Js2s,8s7s,8s6s,8s5s,8s4s,7s6s,7s5s,7s4s,6s5s,6s4s,6s3s,5s4s,5s3s,4s3s (26 combos) + mby J8ss

131 total
26/131=19,8% value


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So in other words. 25% of the time he checks back the river with his weak Qx and we win the pot. The other 75% of the time he bets with his valuerange. Then its 29-56% chance that he is bluffcatching from anything from QK to AA. Since he only needs 31,1% equity to call, and he has 80,2% equity against our river raising range, he should call.
3% of the time we lose when he 3bets with Asxs

We could also take this line for value with J8,KJ and 68 because of how wide his calling raise should be.

I don't think it's unreasonable to give him some more hands liek 98, 78, T8 on the turn/river bluffing range. I think with the pair he will check sometimes but villain has shown that he is smart/tricky and probably realizes that hands like 98/78/T8 dont really have that much showdown value.

VS his flop call, turn checking range, river checking range: 34s,35s (6) - 22,44,55,77,88 (30)
VS betting range: AJ,A9,A8s,A7s,A5s,A4s,A3s,A2s (41) (and mby some Tx that he checked on the turn, that he is now betfolding like T8s,T7s
I really like the check-raise on the river, but if he is not calling with AJ he is obv not calling with the worse Ax. So what about minraising, or overbet leading the river to try and extract some extra value?

i'm not sure i would give him so many Ax hands for peeling the flop, but if he wont bluff catch lighter than Tx then maybe it doesn't matter too much (and we discount Tx also because of the lack of turn bet). so it could be a spot where we just expect him to fold very often when we bet but every now and then he will have an A that can bet/call or level himself with Tx.

I think overbet leading looks kind of strong, but again you might be able to level some hand like 88 into calling, so i don't mind trying it sometime. Check minraise is interesting, can't really say that it is for sure better or worse than just leading yourself since the line in and of itself seems kind of silly to take as a bluff. I think once hero checks the A, it also looks like he has showdown value since air might bluff that card a lot since it's very consistent with how we would play a lot of our big Ax combos preflop/flop/turn

Would you really give him that many Tx that he does not checkraise the turn with, thinking of how many Ax we can have? Or J9,Q9,QJ that he does not lead out the turn with?

When i broke down the hand this is what i came up with, and please comment if there is anything i could add, or forgot or anything at all

His river bluff-raising range in that spot Kd7d,Kd6d,Kd4d,Kd3d,Kd2d,Qd7d,Qd6d,Qd4d,Qd3d,Qd2d,Jd6d,Jd4d,Jd3d,Jd2d,9d4d,9d3d,7d4d,7d3d,6d4d,6d3d,4d3d,4d2d (22 combos)
Value: T8,88,AT,55 (18 combos)
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A) A small 3bet is good if he is the type of player that does not 4bet jam over us with his air, even though he realizes that we rep only pocket fives. Whats interesting though, is that if we only calculate for the missed diamonds, and not the 97s,J9,Q9,QJ we find out that its exactly break even if we make it 92$ over his 46$, in the 75$ pot. He must fold 55% of the time, and 22/40 is exactly 55%. Which means that a bet less than that is +EV, or if he has any combo at all except for the diaomonds. So if we then add the 79s,J9,Q9,QJ (52 combos) aswell then its obviously a very easy 3bet. Once again, IF he is the guy who does not jam over with air

B)
If he is capable of 4bet jamming over with air, and if he has the 79s,J9,Q9,QJ, then its more profitable for us to be 3bet jamming. 203,92$ to win 75,5$, he only needs to fold 73% of the time. 18/92 (52+22+18) gives us 80,5% fold equity if we jam. And we obviously are not getting the right price if he only has the missed diamonds.

Whats really crucial about this hand though, is knowing what he is doing what with

good post and I agree. It is tough for us to know how often he takes those value hands on the turn and how often he would delay them to the river. Same with his draws, many people just lead their draws on the turn, despite the A hitting which is pretty good for hero's range.

9:18

Table nr 1: T6 @ T36 6 = is this check that good at all ?

his range:
mhs : AT KT QT JT T9 T8s (77 + 88 half of the time because he might 4bet pre)
draws: 78s 79s 98s
floats: KQ KJ QJ AJs A9 A8 A7 (for combo reasons he might 4bet pre more often than not?)
= 124 combos

if we bet he is going to continue with (at least he should): 90 combos of hands ?
KQ might call for sdv vs draws
QJ is going to call/ship w/fd
Ax is never going to fold on this card if he peeled T63

so
EV(bet) is 90/124 * (145.5 * 99.9% - 40) = + 76 ( estimation is only for villain call), so we could add light ship with draws sometimes = boost for our EV

problem with check:

he might checkback those float hands + draws to represent dont-wanna-call-check-ship-turn hand and we are loosing our value.

when we bet he might call KQ KJ again for sdv as I said in order to make advanced delayed float to represent Tx.

why check is good ? I dont know

IMO it is easier to induce 'advanced stuff' by bet than by check because he is going to pot control superwide and by bet we are able to force him to make some mistake (ship or call with draw or delayed float to represent Tx)

22:19

25 @ 94T vs ~57% vpip oop - 13% 3b = it is cool cbet spot, because he is going to fold Ax on the flop + U have some good equityboost cards on the turn + we can barrel like Q or J sometimes because due to his xr flop we expect him to XR Qx Jx hands more often than xr

problem with check:

he might checkback those float hands + draws to represent dont-wanna-call-check-ship-turn hand and we are loosing our value.

when we bet he might call KQ KJ again for sdv as I said in order to make advanced delayed float to represent Tx.

why check is good ? I dont know

IMO it is easier to induce 'advanced stuff' by bet than by check because he is going to pot control superwide and by bet we are able to force him to make some mistake (ship or call with draw or delayed float to represent Tx)

bet is clearly fine/good but check could be good/better depending on assumptions. I mean I don't think we should be too worried about him checking hands like KQ and QJ or Tx, i mean sure some people do on occasion but I'd expect betting turn to be the standard by far.

not sure why you think he will pot control super wide. was there something else in the video that would lead you to think this?

22:19

25 @ 94T vs ~57% vpip oop - 13% 3b = it is cool cbet spot, because he is going to fold Ax on the flop + U have some good equityboost cards on the turn + we can barrel like Q or J sometimes because due to his xr flop we expect him to XR Qx Jx hands more often than xr

good catch