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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (High Stakes)

Time Link to 00:38:21

Nice vid Wilt, the 6-2 hand where hero gets c/r on the Q-3-2dd flop,...in villians shoes...would you consider losing out on some value on the river by checking a set or good top pair when the dimond draw misses to kinda bluff catch vs hero's missed dimond draws...or do you think you just miss out on value vs hero's overall range doing this as when the dimond draw misses hero can possibly make lighter calls??

might not be worth thinking of i dunno, just seems like it would be nice to have some frequency of letting hero make a huge mistake on the river betting his missed fld.

Steve

Nice vid Wilt, the 6-2 hand where hero gets c/r on the Q-3-2dd flop,...in villians shoes...would you consider losing out on some value on the river by checking a set or good top pair when the dimond draw misses to kinda bluff catch vs hero's missed dimond draws...or do you think you just miss out on value vs hero's overall range doing this as when the dimond draw misses hero can possibly make lighter calls??

might not be worth thinking of i dunno, just seems like it would be nice to have some frequency of letting hero make a huge mistake on the river betting his missed fld.

Steve

Hi Steve - great question.

Yea, i've thought about these spots a lot and I'm still not convinced that I like checking much of my value range in spots like these against MOST opponents. I think against expert opponents it is much better as they can have many more hands turned into bluff, especially if BB is regularly checkraising top pair (and therefore more incentive to bluff instead of show down something weak). Here, in this match against this guy, I don't think we can expect BB to have top pair given what we've seen here (we don't know for sure) therefore the incentive for button to turn some weak showdown into bluff goes way down*** and if this is true, a river check from BB with a hand he could value bet is then only making money vs busted diamond draws and I'm not sure there are enough of those given we can discount SOME combos because button a) didn't 3bet flop + b) did call turn + c) doesn't have a pair to show down.

That doesn't mean he can't still have some busted draw bluffs here, of course, but it does question how many - which is very important when considering the large number of Qx combos button can get to the river with, and therefore have the opportunity to bluff catch with.

Another consideration could be that instead of using a set, BB might want to instead bluff catch with like Q3 or Q2 instead since it reduces top pair combos and makes it a little more likely that button has the busted draw, whereas if BB has 22 there are more Qx combos for him to consider bluff catching wtih.

Granted, it is all very nebulous and hard to know what is best because there are a lot of assumptions to be made about how both players view each other and for BB to want to check a value hand on the river to induce, he has to be pretty sure that a) he knows what has been shown down previously and b) he can count on button noticing it and c) that button can make the correct adjustment to the information shown. These types of multi-level assumptions about what the other guy understands and how he can adjust have gotten me into trouble before -- i'm sure you can see why.

Hope that helps

WoT

*** obviously this is also a counter argument for wanting to value bet the 62 in the actual hand... but since we don't know and it's pretty likely we are in a free roll then I still like betting without some other incentive to see villain's hole cards here.

Time Link to 00:12:26

What is the river plan if villan calls our cr ? Good spot to bluff shove blanks ?

Time Link to 00:22:03

These are the hands we expect him to bluff 3x. KQ/KJ/QJ/98/97. 75 combos of air. This is enough combos to justify cc 3x ? We don't need to consider other random Kx/Qx/Jx etc air ?

Thanks Wilt, Yea has helped tons , Nice 1.


Steve

What are your thoughts about starting a donking dynamic vs. this villain? It seems like it might not be a bad idea since he likes to check back so often on the flop.

What is the river plan if villan calls our cr ? Good spot to bluff shove blanks ?

yep, i'd def bluff river here

These are the hands we expect him to bluff 3x. KQ/KJ/QJ/98/97. 75 combos of air. This is enough combos to justify cc 3x ? We don't need to consider other random Kx/Qx/Jx etc air ?

I haven't counted up all of the combos, but given what his river range is for value betting, i think those 75 air combos would make a river call a fist pump here.

Then of course we find out he actually has way more than that, given that he shows the Q5o

What are your thoughts about starting a donking dynamic vs. this villain? It seems like it might not be a bad idea since he likes to check back so often on the flop.

Yea totally reasonable. I usually start mixing in more donk bets once the guy gets to 50-55% cbet

Time Link to 00:22:48

this is a very good explanation

we see this check and we cannot immediately conclude what his thinking was to produce a check. we kick some ideas around and wait for further info to support one or more.

this is a very good explanation

we see this check and we cannot immediately conclude what his thinking was to produce a check. we kick some ideas around and wait for further info to support one or more.

thanks

btw we never made it out to wine country. we still want to do that and meet up sometime.

Hi, In the 78s hand when hero c/r the turn (about 12 min in) I instantly think that hero's valuerange for c/r the turn here both should, and could, be much wider.

Given that villain don't valuebet the turn a lot, his range for getting it in for value would also be very tight. Still, wouldn't this be making his 3b-shippingrange very semibluffheavy?

Since hero can't rep a whole lot of valuehands himself, my thought is that any Ax combo is viable for c/r calling the turn. For the same reason I don't think I like a riverbluff in this spot.

Could you please give a short explanation why you think this is a good river bluff-spot? And is my thoughtprocess ok, or is this just way to fps?
It would definitely make for a fun dynamic if he sees you c/r calling A4s on the turn =D

I might add that I am not a good HU player, but I find these discussions much more interesting and educational. Thanks in advance!

Hi, In the 78s hand when hero c/r the turn (about 12 min in) I instantly think that hero's valuerange for c/r the turn here both should, and could, be much wider.

Given that villain don't valuebet the turn a lot, his range for getting it in for value would also be very tight. Still, wouldn't this be making his 3b-shippingrange very semibluffheavy?

Since hero can't rep a whole lot of valuehands himself, my thought is that any Ax combo is viable for c/r calling the turn. For the same reason I don't think I like a riverbluff in this spot.

Could you please give a short explanation why you think this is a good river bluff-spot? And is my thoughtprocess ok, or is this just way to fps?
It would definitely make for a fun dynamic if he sees you c/r calling A4s on the turn =D

I might add that I am not a good HU player, but I find these discussions much more interesting and educational. Thanks in advance!

its kind of hard to comment on since it really is just an exercise in "well if he knows that I know that he knows that I know..." etc and in my experience the more and deep assumptions you make about a guy without solid evidence that leads you to make those assumptions, then it is a recipe for levelling yourself.

I know because I do it all the time

Hi, in the JJ hand where he C -bet 220 you said you would have preferred him to bet 120 on a Q high board wouldn't a 120 bet look weak or super strong if weak make him raise you and barrel bluff turn river?