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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (Micro/Small Stakes)

Time Link to 00:20:17

Also, betting a little smaller on this turn so that our river bet has enough fold equity to ensure folds from 97s and possibly even some T8s type stuff is good. Not a spot where we want to only have 3/4 pot behind on the river.

Time Link to 00:41:42

Ever flat the 4bet ? Because when we get called we are always againts AK/JJ+. By flatting we keep his A6o/K8o/T8o in or whatever he 4bet bluffs with. Or is the dead money we pick up so often so good that we can't make any more by flatting ?

Ever flat the 4bet ? Because when we get called we are always againts AK/JJ+. By flatting we keep his A6o/K8o/T8o in or whatever he 4bet bluffs with. Or is the dead money we pick up so often so good that we can't make any more by flatting ?

no, i wouldnt flat AQ to a 4bet here. AQ is good enough vs almost all opponents to play for stacks pre at 100bb in almost all situations. It's not inconceivable for him to have AJ here some % of the time (probably low from this guy) but he can also have 88-JJ, so I think assuming he has AK/JJ+ is a little extreme. More than that though, we just win the dead money a ton of the time given the flow of the match

Hey WiltOnTilt, thank you very much for your videos, I'm so in love with your train of thoughts about all the situations, it is incredibly valuable to build a thinking process about hu play.

Wanted to ask if you or anyone could help me getting that precise hud for HU (would consider paying for it). I am a 6max player and I spilled some blood to get a nice 6max hud working, the idea of wasting days on the HU one is tilting me ferociously.
Ty!

nevermind, I got myself onto it

cool

Hi Aaron

22:16

what is our thin valuebeting range on this 678r 4 3 board? are we going to ship here hands like A8 and 99 TT (in this spot TT seems

to be like AA) ? if we expect villain to fold 90% of his TPs here valueshipping less than 2 pair is not super hot from theoretical

point of view

with 99 it looks like SNAPJAM because we have the best hand a decent portion of the time, but are we superhappy when we get called

here?

his on the river looks like

Fat hands: T9, slowplayed 5x (65s,85s,75s,A5s)

are we expecting villan to fastplay 67 and 86 good portion of the time ? lets say 75% of the time YES, what about sets ? Are U

expecting him to fastplay set ? lets say 1 in 3 times Yes

Fat hands part2:88,66

Semi:fat hands 8h6h,8s6s,7h6h,7s6s
Pair hands = 69s,79s,89s,T7s, T8s, J8s, Q8s, K8s, A8x

Blufff hands: J9, K9, A9


so...
88,66,A9s-A8s,K9s-K8s,Q9s-Q8s,J9s-J8s,T7s+,96s+,85s,75s,65s,8h6h,8s6s,7h6h,7s6s,A9o-A8o,T9o,98o - his range

our = TT,99

against hole range we have 70% eq.

EV(ship)-> Hole range = 132 hands, calling range: 56 hands (88, 66, A8s, K8s, T9s, 98s, 85s, 75s, 65s, 8h6h, 8s6s, 7h6h, 7s6s, T9o)

our EQ against his range = 24%

lets do the math

292*(76/132) * + (56/132)(826*24%-267) =
168,121212 - 29,17 = 138,95121212 so due the fold equity our jam is +EV, decend amount of profit is comming from avoiding bluffs from

9x hands


EV(CHECK + villan checkback) = 62/132 * 292 = + 137 USD
EV(check/call) -> betting range = 88,66,A9s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,85s,75s,65s,8h6h,8s6s,7h6h,7s6s,A9o,T9o. agains this range we have 45%

EV(XC) = 826*45% - 267 = 104,7 * 70/132 = +55 USD


so overall EV of check with intention of calling his bet = EV(check + villan checks back) + EV(we check vilan bets we call) = 137USD

+ 55USD = +192USD.


If we remove hands like 76 and 86 from his range (according to leaking in valubets) our EQ goes up to 48% and our check/call is even

more powerfull.


what do You think about this stuff?