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Anon table. We haven't been playing too long. Villain seems to be very solid and probably good postflop. He has been 3betting little, only about 10%. I have also played pretty solid. He has caught me once donking 3 streets as a bluff in single raised pot and he once 3bet my turn c-r to take the pot down. I think he's capable of making little bit nonstandard plays and might be little bit FPSsy, but in a good way.

On the turn I barrel because I would do it with all my bluffs, Kx doesn't hit his range too hard and I doubt he's gonna fold anything he called on the flop. When he raises I think he'll have some 2p hands, weakish draws and maybe even pairs turned into a bluff. He can definitely have some sets also but I still think this turn raise is a call and his bluff frequency is pretty high. He must realize that my range is often FOS in this spot and he shouldn't get too much value by check-raising the turn.

River completes 5x straight and flush. He bets just little bit over half pot. I think he could definitely have 5x here, also with 2p/sets. Flush could be possible, but I doubt he'd raise many of FDs on the turn. Maybe only like KhXh and some of the combos probably c-r the flop anyways with overs + fd.

I think there are two options to consider on the river: fold or shove. We have decent stacks to shove, but there's also possibility that he has a flush or straight. What you guys think in this spot?

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Foukus (BTN) ($441.40)
BB ($678.60)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 2 players) Foukus is BTN 9 9
Foukus raises to $8, BB calls $8

Flop: 6 3 2 ($18, 2 players)
BB checks, Foukus bets $12, BB calls $12

Turn: K ($42, 2 players)
BB checks, Foukus bets $30, BB raises to $76, Foukus calls $76

River: 4 ($194, 2 players)
BB bets $116, $116 to Foukus ($315.4)?

Let me preface this reply by saying I play 50nl hu, so may well be out of touch with the thinking at 400nl. Having said that:

It would be useful to know your steal percentage and his VPBB. However as you min raise his preflop calling range is likely relatively wide (assume between 45 and 50?). We don't have any information on the types of hands he c/r on flop or on turn.

You say that you don't think he would raise his flush draws on the turn, however if he is a thinking reg then I ask why not? By check calling the flop and check raising the turn with his flush draws he reps a much stronger range. If he check raises this flop, he should know that you will put a lot of flush draws in his range and he will not have as fold equity if you have a real hand. Also, depending on if he is thinking about "balance" then he should be check/call check/raising his monsters some of the time on the turn, if he is doing it with his semi bluffs. Depends on what level he is thinking on, but the K is a good card for him to check raise, whether he has it or not. He knows that you know that he knows that it is a good barrell card for you. Therefore you should not give him as much credit for chk/raising when you do have a hand like you have. So he will do it with his value hands, plus his semibluffs as you are barelling it most of the time with your air.

I think if he has flopped an unlikely two pair then he is more likely to check raise the flop to protect his hand than to check call, so his turn range should be flush draws, turned two pairs, Kx of hearts that didn't 3bet pre (K5 maybe K7) looking for some thin value. Also a small portioni of air (5x that just doesn't believe you and decides to c/r turn).

Having said all of that, I think the river is definitely a fold as the flush gets there and I think he has a lot of flush draws in his c/r turn range. I the flush doesn't get there and it is only the 5, it is pretty close, maybe still a fold. I can't see that you can rep a 5 here, or even a flush that credibly, so I think he calls with a set or two pair that he is value betting the river with.

I was opening around 95% to 100% PF and he was defending around 30%. Sample wasn't big.

The reasons why I think he rarely has a flush on the river is:
a) big part of his FDs have overs on the flop so he has a lot of equity with them -> many combos c-r the flop
b) his turn c-r doesn't rep any too many SD value hands, only like KhXh / slowplayed sets -> he shouldn't expect me to fold 6x+
c) my line looks drawy/bluffy -> what's the reason to get me off of my hand on the turn?
d) river sizing is really weird. I think he should bet more or less with basically every hand in his range

I'd like to know also why you think I can't rep 5x or flush here? I have all 5x and FD combos in my PF range. Also this is the kind of board I probably barrel all my FDs and most of my 5x combos anyway.

But yeah, I get your point and I think you are right in many ways.

I was opening around 95% to 100% PF and he was defending around 30%. Sample wasn't big.

The reasons why I think he rarely has a flush on the river is:
a) big part of his FDs have overs on the flop so he has a lot of equity with them -> many combos c-r the flop

I'm not sure I agree that he is raising all his FDs with overs. The "big" FD and overs yes, but a lot of those he is probably 3betting pre - KQhh, AJhh etc. If you have a hand on this flop, then he doesn't have much FE right? He cannot expect you to fold a hand like you have and therefore if he does c/r his FD he ends up getting it in either against a better flush draw or a hand that has him beat and isn't folding.

b) his turn c-r doesn't rep any too many SD value hands, only like KhXh / slowplayed sets -> he shouldn't expect me to fold 6x+

As you say his turn c/r reps a somewhat narrow value range. He may expect that you know that he knows this. Therefore you don't expect him to be bluffing that often here. You see, if I was him, I would be of the opinion that I can rep a stronger range by c/r the turn rather than the flop. Therefore I c/r turn with the flush draws to get you off them, because noone ever folds an overpair to c/r on this flop right?

c) my line looks drawy/bluffy -> what's the reason to get me off of my hand on the turn?
Does your line look drawy/bluffy? If you are bluffing why would you call the c/r on turn?

d) river sizing is really weird. I think he should bet more or less with basically every hand in his range
Why?

I'd like to know also why you think I can't rep 5x or flush here? I have all 5x and FD combos in my PF range. Also this is the kind of board I probably barrel all my FDs and most of my 5x combos anyway.

Actually thinking about how deep you are I kinda agree now that you can rep FDs in your bet call turn range. I think if you were 100bb But yeah, I get your point and I think you are right in many ways.

So in terms of repping a flush on river, yes I think you can by going all in. But I think that he also has flushes in his range which you are saying he doesn't have, obviously he is snapping your shove with a flush.