Nice vid, looking forward to part 3
WiltOnTilt continues with his review of Magnus' play at 100NL.
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Nice vid, looking forward to part 3
Aaron, it looks like if we make it $50 here that you would need to call off $86.10 to win $270.2 after $1 rake. This means that we would need 31.87% making it pretty close if he jammed, however, this is a spot that I really tend to avoid. I hate getting something like 35% of my stack in and then having to fold to a jam in an aggro match. I guess my question is, should I look at small 5betting a lot more when even a little deep?
It seems very strong and like narrows his 6bet jamming range significantly unless I am doing it excessively.
Can you double check my math also?
err what is the time stamp?
Aaron, it looks like if we make it $50 here that you would need to call off $86.10 to win $270.2 after $1 rake. This means that we would need 31.87% making it pretty close if he jammed, however, this is a spot that I really tend to avoid. I hate getting something like 35% of my stack in and then having to fold to a jam in an aggro match. I guess my question is, should I look at small 5betting a lot more when even a little deep?
It seems very strong and like narrows his 6bet jamming range significantly unless I am doing it excessively.
Can you double check my math also?
Assuming he's not 6bet bluffing, which seems like a pretty reasonable assumption at this point in the match and with the amount we're putting in pre:
Hand 0: 73.127% 71.84% 01.29% 841384284 15096024.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 26.873% 25.58% 01.29% 299639604 15096024.00 { A3o }
136 in stacks
our + his = total
50 + 136 = 186
we have to call 86 more to win 186
186:86
2.16:1 = need about 31.6% but have 27%
If our assumptions are right, looks like a reasonable proposition, especially if we could even go a little smaller like say $44.
In the hand we risk 40 more to win our 10 + his 25 = 35, so has to work a little more than half the time
Time Link to 00:06:56
In the table on the right he has J9s and he call the turn with TP medium kicker. I would evaluate the fold . Is this too weak?
In the table on the right he has J9s and he call the turn with TP medium kicker. I would evaluate the fold . Is this too weak?
yea i think it's a little weak. the guy was checkraising 33% which is quite high. Only 100 hands but it's definitely an indication that he's not afraid to get out of line. I can't remember but I don't think at this point in the match we had seen him c/r any top pairs and he shouldn't have any 2pairs on that board so we should be ahead of a lot of air. The 5 reduces set combos as well. If you're giving his flop range as mostly top pairs and flush draws, then sure we can fold the turn, but I don't think we can cut his range down that far on the flop, and on this turn he will probably fire 100% of his air.
Against a more straight forward opponent, thinking of a fold is more reasonable.
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