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good value raise / fold spot?

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marco

Avatar for marco

690 posts
Joined 08/2010

Hi all

villain here was a maniacal calling station. He was a maniac with initiative, but was a calling station with out it. Early on he 3bet with T3o, and 3brl bluffed with no equity at all. If he opened and checked back the flop he would and snap call 2 streets with king high or 3rd/4th pair.

I feel like his river bet size allows me to raise the river, but his 3bet looks so planned that i just fold to it. I checked the flop b/c he was very barrel happy if I checked, and figured i was very likely to get 2 bets out of him if i check there.

Hero (BTN/SB): $108.75
BB: $83.35

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN/SB with A Club 3 Diamond
Hero calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($1.00) A Heart 5 Diamond 7 Club (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.00) 3 Spade (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, BB raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.75

River: ($8.00) K Club (2 players)
BB bets $4, Hero raises to $12, BB raises to $24, Hero folds

Final Pot: $32.00

I give him a turn range of all 2pair and sets, 46, maybe 68s, and a few Ax hands like A4, A6, A8, A9 ( he's 3betting 33% so not any higher aces).

his hp river bet makes me think I can remove the stronger hands from his range so then i raise him, thinking he can't fold any 2 pair or Ax to me now.

Anyway, is my river raise solid here?

Posted over 1 year ago

Emergence

Avatar for Emergence

490 posts
Joined 07/2009

Why are you limping A3o? What is villain doing in the BB that makes you want to limp this? How is he playing to cbets? This deep and vs the described villain I think you should only be raising from the button. You could just play a tighter range pre that doesn't have to fold so often vs his 3bets.

Given you did limp and flopped top pair, why are you checking behind? You described him as a 'maniacal calling station'. Bet and get value from his range. And if he's really such a tard, don't fold top and bottom pair ever vs him. Reraise turn, but rather raise pre and bet flop.

Posted over 1 year ago

marco

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690 posts
Joined 08/2010

villain was 3betting 35%and want to see a flop with this hand. I would open/4bet bluff, but he won't fold, so i'm limping and getting to play pots.

I didn't cbet,but prob because the board texture + my hand makes it hard for me to get 2/3 streets out of him, while he'll bluff twice a high % of the time.

Posted over 1 year ago

chrisanagno

Avatar for chrisanagno

175 posts
Joined 09/2010

limping hands 165bb deep?are u sure that a +EV spot?if he 3bets a lot,4bet a lot or at least open 2x and expect Ax to be the nuts.also checking back this flop has no sense at all..you will end up fighting otr for 15bb pots having premium hands against a cally villain whom u can easily stack with second pair hands

Posted over 1 year ago

Liquid Cash

Avatar for Liquid Cash

144 posts
Joined 07/2011

I think the river is a call. I plugged your hand vs his range ( I did it quick possibly over looking a few hands) and you are 57% so you have the odds to call. I don't think he puts you on an ace so he might play a worse 2 pair pretty strong here.

Posted over 1 year ago

paulgibbo

Avatar for paulgibbo

20 posts
Joined 12/2010

interesting... well his turn raise is huge, no? i think weaker 2 pr and the nuts... ok, he may have a large bluffing component since 'we never have an ace'.

even donkeys make the nuts.. and since i bet he leads with 64, im thinking 24.. so a big leak in my game is paying off donkeys - not allowing that they can sometimes make the nuts

so it is a question of philosophy - i hate raise-folding the river... i however think his actions scream 'straight'... and i'm trying to play a long game - i will get his money soon enough without having to make thin value raises

there is enough thick value in the game...

so i call turn, raise, and just call his first river bet.... and if I'm good, im very happy, and don't regret missing value because there is more coming

Posted over 1 year ago

Liquid Cash

Avatar for Liquid Cash

144 posts
Joined 07/2011

interesting... well his turn raise is huge, no? i think weaker 2 pr and the nuts... ok, he may have a large bluffing component since 'we never have an ace'.

even donkeys make the nuts.. and since i bet he leads with 64, im thinking 24.. so a big leak in my game is paying off donkeys - not allowing that they can sometimes make the nuts

so it is a question of philosophy - i hate raise-folding the river... i however think his actions scream 'straight'... and i'm trying to play a long game - i will get his money soon enough without having to make thin value raises

there is enough thick value in the game...

so i call turn, raise, and just call his first river bet.... and if I'm good, im very happy, and don't regret missing value because there is more coming



I do think that it is ok to fold and avoid variance if you feel you can just own the guy in a better spot. He is representing a lot of strength with this line but I would hate folding a good 2 pair here.

Posted over 1 year ago

Liquid Cash

Avatar for Liquid Cash

144 posts
Joined 07/2011

Yeah I actually think the river is a fold after thinking more about it. I think he has the wheel here because 42 makes a lot of sense and I am not sure he would re raise the river with a worse 2 pair. I think the river raise is fine because he most likely does not think you have an ace but I think he flats with a weaker 2 pair so your bet / fold is most likely good depending on the opponent.

Posted over 1 year ago




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