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200nl facing river overbet

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A-LX

Avatar for A-LX

588 posts
Joined 09/2009

Villain was an unknown reg this was very early in the match so no reads yet, what would you do here?

Pacific $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 1571655
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: $203.40
Hero (BB): $202.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with 9 Diamond 8 Diamond
BTN/SB raises to $6, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($12.00) 5 Club 9 Spade 2 Heart (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $9.00, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($30.00) K Spade (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $22.50, Hero calls $22.50

River: ($75.00) 7 Diamond (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $117.00, Hero??

Posted over 1 year ago

chrisanagno

Avatar for chrisanagno

175 posts
Joined 09/2010

prob finding a fold here,he can have tons of value range for overbetting given ur perceived range and although he can have some semibluffs(i dont expect him to cbet,2b Ahigh )if he was bluffing he wouldnt overbet ,esp this big..

Posted over 1 year ago

marco

Avatar for marco

690 posts
Joined 08/2010

i would fold here most of the time.

too expensive too early. Some people are always nutted here.

Calling inherently assumes a 40% pure bluffing range, but we don't know whath is 3barrel bluffing or overbet bluffing frequencies are. Some people can't bluff this way. If he is bluffing enough that folding = getting exploited, we'll own him later when we KNOW.

Posted over 1 year ago

Foukus

Avatar for Foukus

288 posts
Joined 01/2009

Without reads I think calling and folding are probably nearly the same EV if we know the guy is a reg.

We can't say which level he's thinking on. It's either "hmm, he can't really have a good hand here so I'm bluffing that he fold pretty much 100% of his range here on the river" or "hmm, my line looks bluffy so when I overbet he could call me with 9x or even 5x, lucky that I turned that Kx!".

Calling is nice in the beginning also cos we get more info faster and can make the right adjustments.

Posted over 1 year ago




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