Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by KRANTZ (Micro/Small Stakes)

Pr1nnyraiding 3: Episode Nine

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Pr1nnyraiding 3: Episode Nine by KRANTZ, WiltOnTilt

KRANTZ and WiltOnTilt wrap up their series with a focus on quantifying the most important factors in a hand.

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Krantz and Wilt are finally back with the long awaited conclusion to the pr1nnyraiding trilogy! Join them as they revisit the previous series' and update them for 2011. Then, learn a new way of conceptualizing all the different strategies you'll need to know to conquer any type of player. Note: Many buffalo died to bring you this information.

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krantz wiltontilt pr1nnyraiding 3 powerpoint ipod friendly hh review hand replayer

Video Details

  • Game: nlhe
  • Stakes: Micro/Small Stakes
  • 67 minutes long
  • Posted over 3 years ago

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PerfectionPLZ

Avatar for PerfectionPLZ

2 posts
Joined 01/2009

I read that this video was supposed to contain discussion on quantifying factors in hands, but all we got was some anecdotal hand scenarios and attempts at outwitting fishy reg-types on low stakes.

Posted over 3 years ago

WiltOnTilt

Avatar for WiltOnTilt

2633 posts
Joined 10/2007

I read that this video was supposed to contain discussion on quantifying factors in hands, but all we got was some anecdotal hand scenarios and attempts at outwitting fishy reg-types on low stakes.



sweet gimmick account lol

Posted over 3 years ago

Redrover

Avatar for Redrover

4 posts
Joined 03/2011

I am incredibly confused about the KQ hand vs the overbet shove (31:02). We only have to be good ~50% of the time and we have an extremely strong hand that is near the top of our range by the river. The main flush draw missed, JT is now trash on the river and our hand should mathematically be good a ton. I'm pretty sure he's not value betting KJ (and it would be unlikely anyway, especially since we have KQ) so his range is polarized to good trips (and he might even slow down with that) or better and hands we clearly beat.

I would call and be happy about it. Here's why:

1. According to Shanon, this is his first overbet in 1500 hands despite an aggressive match. Without an overbet dynamic, any decent player would expect this overbet to have quite a bit of fold equity. I think her opponent understands that the overbet appears polarized and that Shanon would be folding anything less than TP almost always. It's a very scary situation for hands that just call a flop c/r on a wet board and then just call the turn overcard too.

His range is uncapped (ignoring preflop) and could be anything from a draw to the absolute nuts. However, with each call, Shanon's range seems to be less capable of being super strong because slowplaying is very risky this deep since it will be too hard to get full-stacks in. For instance, on the river 6, the only way I see Shanon having trips is if she had a flush draw to go with it. He also can't rep a 6 that well but he's more likely to have quads by the river than Shanon (virtually never) and some people turn random bottom pairs into bluffs (nevermind that it's a bad idea Grin) so he doesn't have to have a flush draw with it.

2. It's not consistent with value. Some players are hesitant to suddenly make a huge bet with a monster when they've never done it as a bluff because they will see the inconsistency as making their opponents more likely to fold. Without reads, bigger bets tend to be stronger to most people. For instance, if I've always raised 3x with crap hands, I'm not going to make it 5x with AA.

It seems like he should expect to have too much fold equity with his large bet. Shanon's range will be a lot of pair + draw hands like QT, Js etc. so if he expects to get value from those hands, he'd have to bet something like 1/2 pot without a dynamic for large thin value bets. Thus, he's making it impossible to get value from a huge percentage of Shanon's hands except for KJ+ and even that may be too loose considering what he's repreenting (trips+ to me).

3. It's just too difficult for him to have a hand. While I mentioned that his postflop range is uncapped in the sense that its consistent with any of his strong hands, his preflop range isn't. TT, JJ and AQ are going to be 3-bet most times and I doubt he's going to slowplay KK either considering the deep stacks. Although, I suppose he might if he thought Shannon was spewy postflop or if he 3b a lot. Although, I'm not familiar with stacks this deep so I'm not sure how most people adjust their 3b ranges. In any case, Shanon has blockers to KK, AQ and Q9o/Qh9h. Of course, AQ won't always be c/rd even if he happened to have it and he can't have AhQh. T6 and J6 are other monster that crush us but most regs are definitely folding J6 and T6 pre to a 3x even if it's suited. 66 is still very consistent, although some regs like to 3b <77 so it may not be all 66s. There are simply very few combinations that beat us and those that exist tend to be discounted preflop. Can we really go and put our opponent on quads when we only need to be good some 50% of the time?

4. It's a big pot and people hate the thought of giving up large pots - especially after patiently grinding a long session. Since Shanon doesn't have any reads, he must have been mostly normal and thus this is a good time for him to cash-in on his image. As an avid SNG player, I can definitely tell you that some people get desperate when involved in a big pot that they realize they can no longer win by showing down. Sometimes, this even carries to future hands too if they've suffered a big chip loss and the buy-in was outside of their roll. For instance, a guy playing a $235 6-man when his average stake is $30. Some of them nit it up and then go batshit insane when their stack is cut in half and they realize that they barely have a chance now. If someone's underrolled or the money really matters to them, it will be hard for them to accept losing and you're more likely to see desperation bluffs. Even if he's a reg, it's deep and the pot may be hard to let go of.

The counter arguments I see:

1. What the hell would he be bluffing with? A lot of his likely hands tend to have a pair by the turn even if he was semibluffing and many people just check their semibluffs once they've got showdown value. It's hard to imagine many hands that need to bluff except perhaps some random 7h8h but a lot of people aren't c/r those hands. Then again, a lot of people don't overbet for value this way.

I ran a potential river range on PokerStove vs our hand and we had 41% equity but it's hard to say how reasonable it is since I weighted to more bluffs than I generally expect:

66,AQs,AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KQs,KhJh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Q9s,Qh8h,Th9h,9c8c,9h8h,9h7h,8h7h,7h6h,AcQd,AdQc,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,AsQc,AsQd,Ah6c,Ah6d,Ah6s,KcQd,KcQs,KdQc,KdQs,KhQc,KhQd,KhQs,KsQc,KsQd,Qc9h,Qd9h,Qs9h 59%

2. Why such a huge overbet? As KRANTZ mentioned, the overbet appears a bit overkill if he's trying to fold out a T or a J and most people try to bluff a size that lets them value bet and not a size that is absurdly large in a situation where a much smaller bet accomplishes the same thing. When the bet is this overkill, it actually makes less sense as a bluff and a reg could think that any large bet would turn Shanon's whole range into a bluffcatcher. Thus, if he depends on a hero call to make a good amount of money (a river c/r would be terrible for value since Shanon very likely checks back), he might as well make it large. If Shanon knows that the bet is extremely polarized, it shouldn't really change much if it's 140 or 204 and even the strong hands Shanon may have like AhQh may just call a smaller bet but not raise. Of course pot odds change but this is just a possible way he might think if he has 66.

Basically, what all this boils down to for me is that we have to be good ~50% and it's a suspicious line given his most likely ranges... especially making that bet. To me, it's close but a call and I'm confused on why it seems to be such an easy fold for KRANTZ and WiltOnTilt. I hate folding in any spot where my whole range is turned into a bluffcatcher. If Shanon called, I want to know what he had just to satisfy my curiosity. Grin

________________________________

The other spot that I found tricky was with KT (7:15), where you guys recommending shoving the river 4-flush. At first that was my instinct too but then, I started to think it turned a profitable spot into one that was unclear at best.

First of all, if he's c/r and has a flush by the river and is willing to fold, I expect it to be a combo draw like 9d7c. Most people don't c/r with a naked flush like 5d6d and if they do, I'm not sure how often they fold to a slight river overbet after they gave the green light for you to bluff by checking . They check because they think they can't get called by worse but can get value from bluffs or made hands turned into bluffs, as was clearly the case here. Moreover, they have 2 blockers to a flush anyway and most people don't shove the river with worse than a Td flush so it's not really that relevant if he has 5d6d or 9d7c. In fact, 5d6d would be preferable because it beats the same hands but has an extra blocker. Similarly, I think most people checking a straight like Q9 are often not capable of folding here. And probably they are right not to since they'd have to be good just about 35% and many check back all but Td, Qd or Ad. It's also a spot where I'd expect them to continue bluffing if they had a hand that needed to bluff and a lot of times with hands that are just of unclear value like QsTs thinking that they can't get called by worse but also can't call a shove so fold equity plays more of a role and it's a tough spot. Actually, what would you do here if you had QsTs on the river in villain's spot? I think QsTs and even KsJs are going to be shoving a decent amount of time since they'd have fold equity and it feels dirty to check and have to fold to any bet when they may have good fold equity with shoving. KsJs isn't much different from QsTs, I guess but I'd be very curious what you'd do with it in villain's spot. In any case, my point is that he's checking a decent amount of hands that aren't good enough to vbet but aren't folding to shoves, sometimes shoving hands that aren't flushes but beat you, like KJ, and any set and also sometimes shoving hands like QsTs. Thus, when he checks, it seems like if he's folding, it's because he was giving up and you were thus good anyway. The shove with KT may have some fold equity but it's not very much and even though you'll win the pot more often, I doubt you'll win more money long-term. It's just like if someone decides to shove any TP on the flop... they'll sure win a ton of pots but they'll likely lose money long-term. Our hands looks too strong to really need to bluff and there's too little that I expect to fold. Please correct me if I'm wrong on any points! I know you guys are both far far better than me at HU cash.

Thanks!

Posted over 3 years ago

KamikazeMan1

Avatar for KamikazeMan1

12 posts
Joined 04/2011

Hey KRANTZ and WiltOnTilt the Pr1nnyraiding series is doing absolute wonders for me but I just have one question to ask. I'm still pretty new to HU NL but I have this kill everyone mentality in the game where I want to sit regs all of the time and beat them main reason that is fueling this is that on Carbon Poker game selection really isn't all that great and there aren't many fish to choose from, at least fish that will buy in for full stacks or they hit and run you after they win a couple of blinds. Is wanting to sit regs and play anybody anytime a good mentality to have in HU NL or is it a recipe for disaster???

Posted about 3 years ago

KRANTZ

Avatar for KRANTZ

3150 posts
Joined 07/2007

Hey KRANTZ and WiltOnTilt the Pr1nnyraiding series is doing absolute wonders for me but I just have one question to ask. I'm still pretty new to HU NL but I have this kill everyone mentality in the game where I want to sit regs all of the time and beat them main reason that is fueling this is that on Carbon Poker game selection really isn't all that great and there aren't many fish to choose from, at least fish that will buy in for full stacks or they hit and run you after they win a couple of blinds. Is wanting to sit regs and play anybody anytime a good mentality to have in HU NL or is it a recipe for disaster???



it's a good mentality to have if you really want to improve your ability. just recognize that there will be more volatility in your results, and make sure to exercise some self-control and quit if you feel yourself playing badly.

Posted about 3 years ago

KRANTZ

Avatar for KRANTZ

3150 posts
Joined 07/2007

I am incredibly confused about the KQ hand vs the overbet shove (31:02). We only have to be good ~50% of the time and we have an extremely strong hand that is near the top of our range by the river. The main flush draw missed, JT is now trash on the river and our hand should mathematically be good a ton. I'm pretty sure he's not value betting KJ (and it would be unlikely anyway, especially since we have KQ) so his range is polarized to good trips (and he might even slow down with that) or better and hands we clearly beat.



can you use the time stamp feature and post your questions as separate posts? would be happy to answer your questions just a pain to quote within a massive post. thx!

Posted about 3 years ago

KamikazeMan1

Avatar for KamikazeMan1

12 posts
Joined 04/2011

it's a good mentality to have if you really want to improve your ability. just recognize that there will be more volatility in your results, and make sure to exercise some self-control and quit if you feel yourself playing badly.



Will do Jay, thanks a ton for the advice, and my game is improving at lightning pace by combining my killer mentality and Pr1nnyraiding Smile

Posted about 3 years ago

perfectibilists

Avatar for perfectibilists

55 posts
Joined 01/2014

Time Link to 00:40:20

I agree with wilt that river card he never really has many flushes there he would of fired the turn again. So when he check raises the river and is trying to rep a flush I don't really think he can. I think he put it in his head any ace any sort of scare card on the river he was going for a check rais or checking and hoping shannon checks back so he can show down his jj-kk imo. It looks like he has an over pair on the flop and didn't like the turn and then since shannon didn't bet the turn he knows she has no 8 and has no flush draw herself. I think I would have to call just based on the fact her hand range is capped because imo so is his. I guess he can be trying to get cute with pocket 8s here. Its like 8s or nothing. So that would lead me to call.

Posted 8 months ago




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