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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (High Stakes)

Time Link to 00:01:37

He delivered. Intro is sick awesome!

Gross river on that last hand and sick Intro

Time Link to 00:05:47

Hi Buffalos.

Excuse me for my novice questions again.

65o being offered 3-1 - with an SPR ~4 to 5 if we call.
I am interested in discussing our Total EV of the 3-1 flop call.
IMO the Q54 flushing board would have to be in the top 25% of flops for our holding. If that is true.........then barring the pair + draw or better flops....it would appear that often our best case scenario is going to be using our holding as a bluff-catch or as a flop-raise semi-bluff.
Given that our opponent is depolarised 3bettor and very thinly ( it would seem correctly if not on price then certainly on range if we still are calling 65o) with us only having 19-1 implied when we have ~$560 eff.
And the one area where villian appears well balanced is his c-bet/2b frequency.
Even taking into account the awesome direct PF odds being offered that we are getting ourselves into a RIO quagmire.
Whilst I appreciate the huge chasm in skill between villian and jared - its got to be questionable whether skill + position is sufficient to overcome absolute range superiority particularly when coupled with the most balanced part of his game PFR-c/bet aspect.

Do you think there is any merit to my thoughts? And do you think there is any value in trying to look at the macro numbers for this EV situation.

Additional question along the same lines -

Given the popularity of 20-50bb structures.
At what point in terms of effective stack sizes - does it become necessary to only ever have a depolarised 3betting range?

Also vs this specific opponent - apart from min-raising. Do you think that perhaps trimming the bottom 15% of our SB opens from the get/go is better than 100% SB strat? e.g. vs 50-60% BB defend 15-20% 3bet stat.

Hi Buffalos.

Excuse me for my novice questions again.

65o being offered 3-1 - with an SPR ~4 to 5 if we call.
I am interested in discussing our Total EV of the 3-1 flop call.
IMO the Q54 flushing board would have to be in the top 25% of flops for our holding. If that is true.........then barring the pair + draw or better flops....it would appear that often our best case scenario is going to be using our holding as a bluff-catch or as a flop-raise semi-bluff.
Given that our opponent is depolarised 3bettor and very thinly ( it would seem correctly if not on price then certainly on range if we still are calling 65o) with us only having 19-1 implied when we have ~$560 eff.
And the one area where villian appears well balanced is his c-bet/2b frequency.
Even taking into account the awesome direct PF odds being offered that we are getting ourselves into a RIO quagmire.
Whilst I appreciate the huge chasm in skill between villian and jared - its got to be questionable whether skill + position is sufficient to overcome absolute range superiority particularly when coupled with the most balanced part of his game PFR-c/bet aspect.

Do you think there is any merit to my thoughts? And do you think there is any value in trying to look at the macro numbers for this EV situation.

Additional question along the same lines -

Given the popularity of 20-50bb structures.
At what point in terms of effective stack sizes - does it become necessary to only ever have a depolarised 3betting range?

Also vs this specific opponent - apart from min-raising. Do you think that perhaps trimming the bottom 15% of our SB opens from the get/go is better than 100% SB strat? e.g. vs 50-60% BB defend 15-20% 3bet stat.

it's all but impossible to calculate the overall ev of calling 65o pf. however, I do see where you're going and it is safe to say this is near the btm of my pf calling range and it's possible it's -ev, but I doubt it.

your last two questions are hugely player dependent. As a starting point, I def 3bet fairly depolarized with shorter stacks and don't open 100%

Can we discuss his ranges abit more?

One possible composite BB range is : 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T6s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,54s,43s,A2o+,K2o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T7o+,96o+,86o+,76o,65o

We dont have access to the Buffalo's HEM, but we do know that Q7o is some part of his 3bet range.

I with a 21% 3bet in HUD - I got kinda close to a possible 3bet range with 24% of hands and an assumption of High card biased of :
TT+,A7s+,K7s+,Q7s+,A7o+,K7o+,Q7o+

For completeness that would make his flatting range: 99-22,A6s-A2s,K6s-K2s,Q6s-Q2s,J2s+,T6s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,54s,43s,A6o-A2o,K6o-K2o,J7o+,T7o+,96o+,86o+,76o,65o
Obviously would be useful to have some showdown info regarding middle pairs.

What I think is interesting is the combinatorics that Jared refers to: Of barrel bluffs vs Qx........with TT+,A7s+,K7s+,Q7s+,A7o+,K7o+,Q7o+ remembering that the Buffalos told us that c-bet in 3bet pot =75%.
Villian also had high CRF - I think at least some of the time that will be with strong hands in 3bet pots. So I dont think its necessarily true that his c-bet range always has every TP or better thats in his 3betting range but its likely that 80% or more is.

So it might also be he has no checking in 3bet pots on this dry board at all.

Either way - What was interesting is if he has a fixed high card biased 3bet range similiar to TT+,A7s+,K7s+,Q7s+,A7o+,K7o+,Q7o+ -
he has Qx 5*12 combos 60 combos one pair combos
2*9 Qx 2pr combos 18
6 combos of OP
6 combos of sets (QQ,JJ)

90 combos of nutted hands

Then you look at the total hands PF in his 3betting range
30 combos of pairs
16*21 unpaired ranks = 336 combos

366 combos

So his 2b range of 41% on these types of boards - Given his starting range and its connectivity to Qx as top rank - 90/366 = ~25%

So if you start including Ax Kx flush draws - I think on the turn he really is probably only barrelling Air with not alot of equity like 25% of the time.

Geez I kinda think that the turn might be a fold given my assumptions.

Thoughts?

And having seen the Playbook series by Josh - his RIO calculations with regards to strong to moderately biased value turn betting range when you consider that we probably call most rivers when we call most turns.

Then it really crushes our overall EV of bluffcatching this turn.

I dunno both of the buffalos are light years better than me at poker.....but unless I am way off on either PF 3betting range or some other part of his frequencies - it looks like that turn is a fold.

The main diff for me is that I don't feel using his overall 2 barrel # of 41% is anywhere near appropriate on that turn card and board when there are so many ways he might want to semibluff

Ok - sorry for being argumentative.

But..............

If these assumptions are true:

That villian is high card biased and ~ TT+,A7s+,K7s+,Q7s+,A7o+,K7o+,Q7o+

We hold 65
On
Q45J

Even if villian is barrelling 100% of flops and turns..

Our EV vs that range is 46.5%

So we only become +EV when we distribute $280 dead money ( pot prior to turn bet) with some RIO odds considerations on the $487.25 effective stacks behind.

Perhaps I should go back and look at the spreadsheet RIO models Sthief had in playbook - to consider the composite EV of both turn and river given pot size stack size and some tendencies we should have operative.

Leave aside my above point for the moment.

But if villian on turn or river will check 100% of the time Jx and 7x that are one pair
And
He will barrell 100% of the time his Ax air and Kx air as well as v-bet Qx +

And my starting 3bet PF hand range of TT+,A7s+,K7s+,Q7s+,A7o+,K7o+,Q7o+ is accurate AND villian c-bets Qxx flushing 100% of the time.

Then calling this river has a +EV without dead money considerations - 56% vs 43%.

Of course in a sense this is with all assumptions working in our favour.

If villian c/f flops some of the time then his flop and consequently all following sts are strengthed
If villian v-bets Jx on turn and river or he bluff 7x on river - some of the time this hurts us.
If villian bets flop and turn with his say Flushdraws then gives up this hurts us.


And whilst it might be obvious to the buffalos that most of the above is bad (excluding maybe c/f some of the time flop) that does not mean villian cant or wont do that.

Wilt,

You are drastically understating the amount of time I have asked you to transfer me money.

Time Link to 00:31:08

What's the worst hand you call here on the river? With a hand like KK, can we ever hope he got counterfit with Q9 or 96 and expect him to follow through, or would you expect him to check the river with these hands?

What's the worst hand you call here on the river? With a hand like KK, can we ever hope he got counterfit with Q9 or 96 and expect him to follow through, or would you expect him to check the river with these hands?

prob a straight

On the last hand on 764cc where you 3b 99 150bb's deep in position - does villain have a calling range to your 3bet (was thinking mostly the stuff he raises for thin value, ie 7x) or do you think he's close to always folding/shipping given the pot's already fairly big and he's oop?