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1000NL strange river spot

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Diodor

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363 posts
Joined 11/2008

Very early, no reads. Hero is an unknown at this limit, villain is a well known reg up to $50/$100. What's our plan for the river? Shove seems too strong because when the flush comes I fear anything we beat folds, and check/call and check/fold are both kind of gross.

Also, how do we play a blank river (say the 5 of hearts) ?

Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 904915
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: $1409.00
Hero (BB): $1010.00

Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero is BB with 5 Club A Club
BTN/SB raises to $30, Hero calls $20

Flop: ($60.00) 9 Spade 4 Spade 9 Club (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $50, Hero raises to $140, BTN/SB calls $90

Turn: ($340.00) A Diamond (2 players)
Hero bets $220, BTN/SB calls $220

River: ($780.00) 5 Spade (2 players)
Hero ???

Posted almost 3 years ago

poolsweeper

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395 posts
Joined 12/2008

Uhh gross spot.

Early on I would prob shy away from c/r A5s on this flop. Not a bad options though with the BDFD.

As played, I agree that value betting is too thin here.

Whether you should check-call or check-fold will depend I guess on how often he will turn hands with showdown value (4x, 55-88,TT-KK) into bluffs on this river.

I don't think villian is going to (i) put you on that many Ax hands here that did not hit the flush on the river; (ii) put you on many if any combos of TT-KK that could possibly be bluffed by 44-88; or (iii) think you will ever fold a 9.

This being the case, he should not be turning that many made hands into bluffs here - it is a check fold for me.

Posted almost 3 years ago

Pugilist

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329 posts
Joined 05/2009

villain is a well known reg up to $50/$100.



Fold pre-match.

Posted almost 3 years ago

KaptajnKold

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11 posts
Joined 03/2010

Why bet the turn? What can he call with that you can beat at a showdown?

Posted almost 3 years ago

Diodor

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363 posts
Joined 11/2008

Why bet the turn? What can he call with that you can beat at a showdown?



All of 4x, (I expect 100% button open at first), K highs, pocket pairs. 9x and some Ax beat us but 9x is discounted because it raises some on the flop (to induce and to get it in against flush draws), and Ax is discounted because it checks behind the flop a good amount. (also there are two nines and two aces villain can't have and a few aces we beat/split with).

There are fiftyish combos of pocket pairs, thirtyish of 4x, but (with the discounts) only fifteenish of each 9x and better Ax, and about ten boat combos.

I felt I had to bet the turn because my line reeks of air and I don't expect any showdownable hands to fold. The turn is ostentatiously a bluff card that doesn't really help me very often, and when it does an unknown often checks it.

Of course, if I get shoved on on the turn or river (or worse, minraised on the turn) I'm hating life and cursing getting myself in this spot. I probably get it in on the turn and check/fold the river.

Posted almost 3 years ago

jonwies

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257 posts
Joined 09/2009

I don't think 9x is going to 3bet the flop very often.

I'd probably cry and c/f the river here. It sucks that he's a high stakes reg and obviously capable of turning a pocket pair into a bluff but that's just about the only thing you beat...

Posted almost 3 years ago

Diodor

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363 posts
Joined 11/2008

My previous combo counts are effed up. Should be around ~100 combos of 4x, ~50 pocket pairs, ~60 of 9x, ~50 of Ax.

Posted almost 3 years ago

nonsimplesimon

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76 posts
Joined 02/2010

can this noob ask if folding the flop is a terrible thing (just over 2:1 on a bdfd and ocbk)? If not then would it be better calling the flop and raising the turn hitting that ace? ty

Posted almost 3 years ago

Diodor

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363 posts
Joined 11/2008

can this noob ask if folding the flop is a terrible thing (just over 2:1 on a bdfd and ocbk)? If not then would it be better calling the flop and raising the turn hitting that ace? ty



Folding is fine, but if you ever check/raise bluff this flop, which rarely hits villain, A5s is pretty much the best air hand to do it with. You can barrel on both spade and club turns, and if a club turns you can shove any spade/club/ace river.

Check/call is standard on this board but I'm not a fan because this particular villain won't let us get to showdown that often, so a check/call check/fold line or even c/c c/c c/f line is a bit suicidal - he'll bluff a good amount and value bet very thinly.

If the A turns after we c/c the flop, our range looks like a lot of Ax so I don't think villain will put more money in with worse that often.

Posted almost 3 years ago

NoWayFolding

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3807 posts
Joined 03/2008

What was your plan before hitting the ace on the turn, and more importantly why?

Posted almost 3 years ago

Diodor

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363 posts
Joined 11/2008

What was your plan before hitting the ace on the turn, and more importantly why?



I planned to 3barrel all in on club/club, spade/blank, club/spade, club/offsuit ace turn/rivers to get like pocket eights or worse to fold when I miss.

I'm not sure what to do if I hit showdown value and the spades flush completes, or if I turn a flush draw and I get raised.

Posted almost 3 years ago

NoWayFolding

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3807 posts
Joined 03/2008

I planned to 3barrel all in on spade/blank, club/spade, club/offsuit ace turn/rivers to get like pocket eights or worse to fold when I miss.



If you are planning to 3 barrel when the flush draws completes turn/river (ie. you are bluffing him off a hand by repping 9x/flush) how this situation is different. Instead of having a bluff hand you have a value hand, therefore definitely seems like oyu should be vbetting it...... no?

Posted almost 3 years ago

Diodor

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363 posts
Joined 11/2008

If you are planning to 3 barrel when the flush draws completes turn/river (ie. you are bluffing him off a hand by repping 9x/flush) how this situation is different. Instead of having a bluff hand you have a value hand, therefore definitely seems like oyu should be vbetting it...... no?


No, no! If we expect pairs lower than aces to fold a lot we can't value bet a weak pair of aces. Either the bluff or the value bet is a bad play.

Posted almost 3 years ago




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