35:30 KT 648ss flop
What is your plan if she cbets?
Plenty of options here. In general c/r this flop is really standard. We take down the pot w/ K high a good amount, have a bunch of equity when called, and can win a pretty big pot when we hit any of our 15 outs.
If I was playing a pretty good hand reader who also played fairly solid and didn't double barrel turns too often, c/c this flop has a lot of merit too. When we hit a flush, K, or T, our hand is pretty disguised. And because our opponent will give up on the turn a good amount, we can bet the river expecting a fold quite frequently as he will assume we were extremely likely to c/r the flop w/ a FD.
Against Vanessa specifically in this match, I prefer taking control of the hand and c/r. She will fire the turn quite a lot when we whiff and it puts us in a position where we probably should just c/f on the turn. We also have a lot of flexibility when we hit a hand on the turn against her because she will consider repping our made hand or making a thin value bet on spades/T/K on the turn.
Against most reasonable opponents, I would c/r this flop and lead any turn, whether it helped us or not a good amount of the time without any specific information that would dictate another line being better.
"The stats are a little bit weird, like 90% red and a little bit black" LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Ya I know. FML.
I dont see a point in NOT 3betting here, she 4bets and plays back a lot and JJ isnt really the hand you wanna flat w, other than AA and KK
Pretty much agree completely. JJ is a hand that I virtually always 3 bet against everyone. With that being said, I remember thinking that on favorable flops like T75 or something, I thought she was likely to not give a flop c/r all that much respect. Certainly 3 betting here is fine if not best. I just try to make a habit of keeping a variety of hands in my range in a bunch of situations both PF and on later streets when playing against superior hand readers. Although in a given hand it may not be the highest EV play, it makes you much more dangerous to play against
What is her point in betting . making this play? She wants to get us of a hand or something?
By the river she correctly assumes that the vast majority of our range here is only semistrong made hands 44-AA, 7x, and air. As such, she decided that the best line would be to c/r here obviously expecting me to fold a large % of my value range on this river.