Think people are call happy at the start of the match. When he calls a CR on the flop and calls the turn what do you think his range looks like?
I think it is pretty strong, but you are ahead and he will call with many worse hands.
His range: JJ+ ,TJ+. , Q2s,A2, some slowplayed flushes, monsters 22,TT.
T5+ with a heart, I separated this last few hands since it is hard to know how wide this part of his range is. This is the part of his range that also may crying call a smaller bet.
Don't ever think he is double floating with JQ+ with a heart.
Our stack (effective stacks) : 50-1.5-5.5-10 = 33
We have a pot size bet left and his hand is face up as bluff catcher. Also we notice that maybe CRing slightly larger allows for an easier river shove. That being said if you want to CR small on many paired boards as a bluff it allows for balance. Many not the most important thing since just betting large with strong hands is more profitable if players are calling too often. This is often an assumption that holds true.
I think this river is a shove because we want to maximize value and he will call with many worse hands.
Why Betting > Checking
Assuming:1) He probably won't turn Tx into a bluff. Haven't played online in a few months, this might be different but I doubt it.
2)He isn't folding any over pair regardless of bet size. This is contentious since we don't know his tendencies, but I think it is optimal since it lets him make the largest mistake with many hands in his range. AT and KT may also call.
3)Often when he calls turn he calls river. He may fold some Tx combos on the turn to the DB. If this is true his river range is stronger and more likely to call the shove. If he has TJ+ no heart he just got a money card on the river. Some of his Q2s,K2s, and A2s hands can be discounted since they would three bet the flop. Your range doesn't have many 2x combos in it so you don't need to worry about him folding a worse flush here. Also who folds a flush 5 hands into a match ?
Psychological impact: If he folds here it has the side effect of allowing him to be more scared of your double barrels on future streets over the match. If he folds river to a shove his most likely hand is Tx with a heart.
Hope all this is clear. If you have any questions or comments leave them below.
Good luck at the tables.
Posted 9 months ago
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