Vilain is an unknown on this site. It is the first hand of the match (actually on a 6max table where I sat alone). I have absolutely no read or stat on him.
IPoker, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
BB: $200 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $200 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with T K
Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4
Flop: ($12) 2 9 7 (2 players)
BB bets $6, Hero raises to $18, BB calls $12
Turn: ($48) J (2 players)
BB bets $24, Hero calls $24
River: ($96) J (2 players)
BB bets $48, Hero raises to $152 and is all-in ????
Flop, I read his 1/2 pot donkbet on the flop as probable weakness (but a hand that could be ahead of mine nevertheless). I raise with my 2overs, hoping to take it down ; if called I have a bit of equity anyway.
Turn, I get a double-gutter to go with my overcards. He donks again for half pot. I don't see what makes sense for this new bet, aside from a fishy play with a pair of some kind.
I consider raise-shoving, and decide rather to shove the river on most high-cards (hopefully taking from him another small bet on the river). Considering his line and his likely range, I don't think he'll go able to call a river shove with much of his range.
Is my line of thinking flawed ?