Heads Up NL Poker Forums

First hand in a new match.
From another match i have following reads and stats.

Steal 25%
Limp 54%
Fold to 3bet: 0%

Fold to Cbet 63%
Aggresion Freq % : 23% / 17% / 29%
WTSD 35%

In addition i have following reads:

1) Has no problem calling down midpair/ Btn-Pair
2) call 3bets w/ K5 on KQJTX
3) open 4bb w/ K3 , calls shove w/ 50bb

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 1817365
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: $41.00
Hero (BB): $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Q K
BTN/SB raises to $1, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN/SB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.00) 3 K T (2 players)
Hero bets $4, BTN/SB calls $4

Turn: ($15.00) T (2 players)
Hero bets $8, BTN/SB calls $8

River: ($31.00) 3 (2 players)
Hero ???

If he's as much of a station as you say how can you consider anything except jamming here.

Yeah i think i can get calls from weaker Kx , 99-22, maybe slowplayed QQ,JJ and even Ace-High !
And i can maybe Discount even a few hands like 3x hands which will jam the Flop because its a 3-Bet Pot ans Bad players sometimes go wild with Bottom pair here ! Maybe the Same think Applies to Tx !
In Addition he is stealing only so Little ! He is more inclined to call the Most Tx , 3x HAnds in the Button .
What do you think?

Check/call river let draws bluff.

If you arent confident in that line start with checking the turn.

EDIT: If you do bet turn, bet bigger to really get value from draws.
You can also jam river easier this way.

Betting > c/c really is a simple EV calc. Just need to look at the combos he bluffs with and look at the combos he calls rivers but doesnt bet it. I dunno whether it is, I just know he has a lot of draws in this spot.

The guys a station, easiest value bet ever. It would be criminal to check and let him check back JJ or K8 or any number of hands that are calling a bet.

If he shows up with a 3 here it just confirms the Fact that he's a station getting to the river with a pair of 3s, which just makes the argument for betting even stronger.

However, he would play a T exactly this way, you can't expect him to raise at any point in the hand. There are still more non T hands that are calling a shove so the bet is def + EV