Heads Up NL Poker Forums

Right, so I started grinding HUSNGs on stars a bit, feel im doing quite decent. Have my first hundred 7$ tourneys in exactly and HM now shows my ROI at 8%, but my expected ROI at 22%... obv i've been running quite bad. But the question is - am I bound to actually be running under EV that much, because I am able to get in hands that are so way ahead, so the surprises will always come to the downside??? Probably a really stupid question, just trying to get around the maths and the reality of this EV thingy. I will start turning quite sour if I keep running that bad much longer. Taking it easy and praising myself on playing well for now.

don't get hung up on long term EV. You can run under EV for 100,000's of hands. And just because some plays are +EV, doesn't make them the best play.

Focus on always making the best play. Play by play EV is very important, but long-term EV doesn't mean much, that's really just a measure of how lucky a person is. You can control what you do in each hand, you can't control how you run over 10000 SNGs.

Ok, marco, thanks for the reply.
The concept of not making the play only because it is a +EV play seems weird though... MAybe more applicable to cash? Seems tough to apply when talking about HUSNG all in situations that I have been just killed on while being miles ahead. I just approach it in a way that I will ship my hand all in if I feel I have the villain beat and am happy when he is all in with worse.

Ok, marco, thanks for the reply.
The concept of not making the play only because it is a +EV play seems weird though... MAybe more applicable to cash? Seems tough to apply when talking about HUSNG all in situations that I have been just killed on while being miles ahead. I just approach it in a way that I will ship my hand all in if I feel I have the villain beat and am happy when he is all in with worse.

I think it might've been the wording of marco's post, but what he's saying is that sometimes there are more +EV options available. Open jamming AA preflop 100bb deep is +EV, but there are more +EV options. That why he says focus on making the best (most +EV) play.

And I agree 100% don't get caught up on the all-in EV line or ROI statistic.