Heads Up NL Poker Forums

I'm not too tuned to HU match dynamics and momentums and what-nots, but there's one thing that's been occurring rather frequently and it kind of puzzles me. So in the middle of a match against a fairly passive player I often get this uncanny feeling before I raise my button with whatever crap I have that the villain is going to 3-bet no matter what. I've often just stopped for a moment and like said to myself in my mind that "I know he's going to 3-bet". I usually just raise anyhow, and voilà!, the happy fellow in the big blind 3-bets.

It's not a huge problem as such as it doesn't occur all the time, but it's a bit problematic as these more passive players tend to hold on to their hands when they 3-bet preflop and you have to give some credit for the 3-bet, because it might be a legitimate hand too. And as it happens I usually miss the flop, but still usually peel the flop with semi-clean outs and this leads to the villain firing another barrel and one has to often give up. Sometimes I think that maybe I should have just folded my 95o or whatever preflop and move on to the next hand.

This is really a silly thing as I'm very skeptical about picking these sort of patterns as I do think that our brain is too eager to remember the times we are right and forget those where we're not. Like picking patterns in results of the hands and similar events that are completely random, but where our brain still manages to pick patterns from. But it's a bit uncanny feeling as I usually do kind of say it out loud to myself (in my mind, but nevertheless) and the villain so often does actually 3-bet. Not always, of course, but I feel often enough to justify pondering about it.

I'm kind of thinking that if there's any merit to this idea, it's because the brain picks up patterns from the flow of the match, or more specifically the turn of events in previous hands, and correctly predicts the villain's state of mind. I do think that many of these inexperienced players who are more emotionally attached to the results get these feelings of revenge which often result in desperate 3 barrel bluffing in spots where it's probably not going to work.

I don't think this is particularly useful skill as I really don't trust it so much as to actually go about folding preflop based solely on the feeling. But it's at least an interesting phenomenom IMO. And I'm not sure how to best adjust my game based on it. I do call down in these spots with any even marginally showdownable, but that's unfortunately all too infrequent thing to have in HU matches.

Anyone else have had similar feelings?

I just try to get to showdown and see his hands. A lot of times I think they just start 3betting all aces.

You sound pretty rational, so what I'd suggest is that you start sitting with a notepad beside you and just write down how often you correctly vs incorrectly guess at this trend. Then compare that to their PFR%.

Card removal effects will also have a slight factor here as they're slightly more inclined to raise when you hold 94o than AA (those bitches!) but I don't think you need to worry about that skewwing your results too much.

This is something I do, to a degree that is. I will 3-bet some hands that I just call sometimes and it definitely muddles my range for my opponents.

Funny, looking @ the hand down further in the forum i see a spot where someone defends 9To and the flop comes A34 and they ask what they should do. Vs. someone I find to be respecting my play a little more (as in, folding when i bet sometimes), I'll often just start 3-betting a very wide range out the BB.

Now, against a passive type opponent as the one you've mentioned, my #1 adjustment is making my flop raises turn raises, and my turn raises river raises. Of course, to a degree - but what I'm trying to do is take my cheap street (the flop) and keep it @ 1 bet. But i'm trying to get more free rivers and showdowns with later street raises. You'd be surprised. Waiting for the turn with a good top pair will make your long term peels with a gutshot much more profitable. And of course, you'll be able to value bet better, even bluff more.

If you've been doing that and it's unsuccessful, start capping lighter. Now, don't cap your A2o, but cap your 9Ts, cap your JTo, just once or twice and wait until you can show it down. Often, people will quit on this 3-betting because you "cap anything!"

Mathematically, all you're really doing is playing against a wider range. What's happening is the passive player is going to have strong hands at a lower frequency. To be honest, I like playing against people like this because it usually means they're going to make some stupid bluffs. Also, keep in mind that your edge is in his passive nature. Make your money in those spots.