Time Link to 00:16:42
These are the kinds of river decisions I need to improve in my own game.
OK, so the pot is laying us 2.625:1 on the low end only, so with no chance at the high we need our low to be good 27.6% of the time. Or we need 16% equity (5.25:1) overall.
Range #1: Straightforward value-only range
If our opponent's "typical", what would be his bet-bet-bet range? Any A4, with or without a low, of course. A few other 24 hands he'd open, like 234 or 245. Any nut low with a reasonable hand, something like A38.
We're 25% overall -- a slight favorite to win low, actually! -- so it's a clear call.
Range #2: Thin value-only range
If he's good at value betting, but for some reason doesn't ever 3-barrel a low-only lock, maybe he's betting down as thin as A5 + a reasonable high. Maybe A23 or A25, to really push it.
I don't really notice people value betting down this thinly in games up to the Stars $5/10, by the way.
Then we drop to 17% overall -- a marginal call.
Range #3: Mixed thin value and semibluff (naked A3) range
What if he's capable of barreling any A3 to get us off a weak high, and also betting down with the same thin value range? Then our bottom pair can win high occasionally, so we're 24%. Again, a clear call.
Looks like the only case where this is even close to a fold is where we're pretty certain our opponent is good enough to bet A23/A25 for value, but not aggressive enough to bet naked A3 as a semibluff. I'm sure I'm missing something, so please do check my math and my reasoning!