Well, I also don't think too many people check trips unless they intend to check raise. Anyway, don't you think villains here ever bluff to rep an 8, or bet to try build a pot with a naked low draw?
Also, maybe someone can help me out with my thinking here:
Sure there are 12 cards being held by opponents, but that is 12 out of 45 unknowns, with only two 8s out there. Opponents are holding around 25% of the deck, but 8s make up only around 4% of the deck. There's still a much larger chance they don't hold and 8, right? I don't know the proper way to figure out the exact probability that an 8 was dealt to them - can someone explain this please?
Am I right to think that each opponent was dealt 4 random cards, with the probability of an 8 in their hand being 2/45 then 2/44 then 2/43 then 2/42 for the first player, with the likelihood similarly increasing for each card dealt?
Put another way, is the likelihood of someone getting an 8 exactly 2 in 45 or, 1 in 22.5 cards. Thus, if 12 cards are out, the likelihood of an 8 being in those 12 dealt cards is about 0.5 in 12? This still seems like a 4 to 5% chance that someone is holding one of the two remaining 8s, and 4% chance they are holding the other 8? Making it an 8-10% chance - right?
EDIT: I've edited this and now want to change it back. I think the chance is still about 4% - but is that 4% for each card dealt, making it close to 50/50 that an opponent is holding an 8? Help me with this if I am wrong, please, as I really need to learn how to think about this.
Anyway - as I was saying, even with the action as it is, we could be seeing a checked nut FH (unlikely because people like to push 23xx hands out, or make them pay for their draws) or a checked A8 FH or even checked trip 8s - both of which I find unlikely for the same reason: people with made hands like to protect against chopping the pot.
The turn bet could also be someone with low potential betting as a bluff to take down the whole pot, but knowing that even if he is called, he has still got a chance of winning half of a nicely bloated pot if he does make a low on the river?
By the way, BB is 57/22 after only 63 hands, UTG is 35/22 after 265 hands and SB is 57/26 after 24 hands. Small sample, but I'd say SB's play was what you could expect from these numbers.