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Omaha 8: high only cards spot at $3/$6

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BadAstronaut

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53 posts
Joined 01/2009

What would you do in the following spot - I called him down but was obviously a little uncertain...
I just didn't think anyone checks a flopped FH there - rather making 23xx type hands pay to make a low, so I thought I may well be good. Your impressions?

PokerStars - $3/$6 Hi/Lo - Omaha Hi/Lo - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $122.12
UTG: $89.22
Hero (BTN): $88.16
SB: $95.63

SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $3.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $4.00) Hero has THeart QClub JDiamond AHeart

UTG raises to $6.00, Hero raises to $9.00, SB calls $8.00, BB calls $6.00, UTG calls $3.00

Flop: ($36.00, 4 players) 8Diamond 8Heart AClub
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($36.00, 4 players) JSpade
SB bets $6.00, BB calls $6.00, fold, Hero calls $6.00

River: ($54.00, 3 players) TDiamond
SB bets $6.00, fold, Hero calls $6.00

Posted 11 months ago

nervy

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237 posts
Joined 03/2010

4 way pot, there are 12 cards at opponent hands so it's pretty easy for someone to have an 8, so i think you should fold turn. SB doesn't have to have FH, trips is enough here.

Posted 11 months ago

BadAstronaut

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53 posts
Joined 01/2009

Well, I also don't think too many people check trips unless they intend to check raise. Anyway, don't you think villains here ever bluff to rep an 8, or bet to try build a pot with a naked low draw?

Also, maybe someone can help me out with my thinking here:
Sure there are 12 cards being held by opponents, but that is 12 out of 45 unknowns, with only two 8s out there. Opponents are holding around 25% of the deck, but 8s make up only around 4% of the deck. There's still a much larger chance they don't hold and 8, right? I don't know the proper way to figure out the exact probability that an 8 was dealt to them - can someone explain this please?
Am I right to think that each opponent was dealt 4 random cards, with the probability of an 8 in their hand being 2/45 then 2/44 then 2/43 then 2/42 for the first player, with the likelihood similarly increasing for each card dealt?

Put another way, is the likelihood of someone getting an 8 exactly 2 in 45 or, 1 in 22.5 cards. Thus, if 12 cards are out, the likelihood of an 8 being in those 12 dealt cards is about 0.5 in 12? This still seems like a 4 to 5% chance that someone is holding one of the two remaining 8s, and 4% chance they are holding the other 8? Making it an 8-10% chance - right?
EDIT: I've edited this and now want to change it back. I think the chance is still about 4% - but is that 4% for each card dealt, making it close to 50/50 that an opponent is holding an 8? Help me with this if I am wrong, please, as I really need to learn how to think about this.

Anyway - as I was saying, even with the action as it is, we could be seeing a checked nut FH (unlikely because people like to push 23xx hands out, or make them pay for their draws) or a checked A8 FH or even checked trip 8s - both of which I find unlikely for the same reason: people with made hands like to protect against chopping the pot.

The turn bet could also be someone with low potential betting as a bluff to take down the whole pot, but knowing that even if he is called, he has still got a chance of winning half of a nicely bloated pot if he does make a low on the river?

By the way, BB is 57/22 after only 63 hands, UTG is 35/22 after 265 hands and SB is 57/26 after 24 hands. Small sample, but I'd say SB's play was what you could expect from these numbers.

Posted 11 months ago

COCKBOAT

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31 posts
Joined 06/2010

Giving opponents random cards, you can figure out the likelyhood of no one holding an eight on the flop by googling the following: 43 choose 12 / 45 choose 12. Eights are shitty cards so you can probably increase that number a bit.

If SB is aggressive enough I think your only mistake was preflop, this is not the hand you want to play in a bloated pot IMO.

Posted 11 months ago

yeahthatsme

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725 posts
Joined 06/2008

What was your reasoning for checking the flop?

Posted 11 months ago

BadAstronaut

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53 posts
Joined 01/2009

Unfortuntely I can't remember what my reason was for the flop check - I guess I thought someone could have AKxx as well and I was outkicked, so I felt like playing it passively. This was a little over a week ago so I can't remember Frown

Posted 11 months ago

danzasmack

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2064 posts
Joined 02/2007

If SB is aggressive enough I think your only mistake was preflop, this is not the hand you want to play in a bloated pot IMO.



Yeah if you're expecting 2 cc's I'm not 3-betting this here and if I am 3-betting I'm pretty much auto c-betting every flop. As played I'd bet the flop, turn, river and look to fold if there are a raise and several calls. Maybe even vs. just a raise.

Posted 10 months ago




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