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villain is a good reg at the stakes imo and i haven't seen him go out of line in general but of course he could be capable of making some moves.

for the 9 to be good here and call down or draw to catch a 2 (or an 8 if he is not that strong) is a big parlay and... do u like the fold here?

Poker Stars $5/$10 Limit 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball - 3 players - View hand 1802716
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is BTN with A J 7 5 4
Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls

First Draw: (4.4 SB) (2 players)
BB draws 2, Hero draws 2
Hand: 9 7 5 4 3
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero folds

you're getting 9.5:1 to call and draw 1, so at the very least you have to do that imo with good IO. whether we can call and pat once or twice or do something more silly and aggresive idk but its possible

ive been thinking lately if such plays are +ev or are just for meta-game cause i may have to cap flop and raise turn to get him to break.

for the deuce yes it has positive IO but an 8 could make me loose 2 more bets and also with this pot i must peel turn right? include that i may pay off with a 9 if i catch it again

I think call and break is probably the standard. There might be something to capping if villain can break some hands here. Definitely can't fold with the price your getting, even if you know your 8 isn't good.

Worse case scenario villain has a hand better than 87543 w a 2, in which case we have 3 outs with 40 cards remaining, so 3/40 is 7.5%. At 9.5:1 we only need 10% and can easily make up that 3% in positive IO when we hit.

You don't have to peel the turn if you peel flop. In fact, you should peel flop fold turn if you really think his range like 875+. That said, I'd be pretty surprised if he was so tight in this spot that it would be correct to fold the turn. I would generally peel thinking my 8 is good some of the time.

If I caught an 8 on the 2nd draw, I think I just call down, bet if checked to, folding to a C/R.