# Mixed Games Poker Forums

## math: heads-up 27TD, last draw

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#### beatDjuice

4 posts
Joined 08/2011

According to Super System or Troutulator, on the last draw, the worst pat J is favorite against the best 1 card draw.
I would like to know how calculate that.

Someone to help?

#### nervy

237 posts
Joined 03/2010

You have the number of outs and you know how many cards are in the so you just divide first number by second.

#### nervy

237 posts
Joined 03/2010

Basically in best case scenario 2347 will have 19 outs against 689TJ. There are 43 cards left in the deck, so 19/43=0.44 or 44% that 2347 will improve. Against pat queen there will already be 22 outs and 51% chance to improve.

#### snowboard789

510 posts
Joined 03/2011

hello aggro friend good to see you in the forums

#### beatDjuice

4 posts
Joined 08/2011

@nervy: thank you, can you tell me what are the math with the same scenario but still 2 draw?

@snow: hi snow, the aggro style don't work very well in this time

#### nervy

237 posts
Joined 03/2010

Well, the number of cards will be different on each street but it will be close to (1-0.44)*(1-0.44)=0.31 or 31%, if I remember how to calculate probabilities correctly.

#### rubbishaka80

549 posts
Joined 07/2007

Actually it's 1-(1-0.44)*(1-0.44)=0.69

#### nervy

237 posts
Joined 03/2010

Actually it's 1-(1-0.44)*(1-0.44)=0.69

Yes, 0.31 is for pat jack to win.

#### HJD

1008 posts
Joined 05/2010

Yes, 0.31 is for pat jack to win.

so you're trying to say a J has 56%~ against a 1cd but only 31% against a 2cd?

#### Plutoman

249 posts
Joined 05/2010

No, a J has 56% chance against a 1cd with 1 draw to come but just 31% with 2 draws to come.

And 17% with 3 draws to come! Never thought I'd need to know that, but someone patted a dealt JT against me today.

4 posts
Joined 08/2011

thank you

#### snowboard789

510 posts
Joined 03/2011

wot is this 17%, im so used to bricking!

#### nervy

237 posts
Joined 03/2010

wot is this 17%, im so used to bricking!

The thing is you usually won't pat made 9 or T against pat hand early, so it should be more than that.

#### snowboard789

510 posts
Joined 03/2011

not serious

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