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Main villain in BB is loose spewy bad. He's patting all his 9s on the flop 3-ways. He's also bet/calling a very wide range on the river vs a drawer (like 96+). I don't expect him to break many hands either once he pats. Other villain is loose bad, but more passive.

My plan was to just call and draw to the 7 3-ways, but once SB folds, I wasn't sure if I should freeze given BB's range of any 9 or better.

Poker Stars $2/$4 Limit 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball - 6 players - View hand 1597803
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.5 SB) Hero is CO with A A 5 5 2
UTG folds, MP folds, Hero raises, BTN folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls

First Draw: (9 SB) (3 players)
SB draws 2, BB draws 1, Hero draws 3
Hand: K J 6 5 2
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB calls

Second Draw: (6 BB) (3 players)
SB draws 2, BB stands pat, Hero draws 2
Hand: 9 7 6 5 2
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB folds

Third Draw: (8 BB) (2 players)
BB stands pat, Hero ...

the suspicious thing is that he 3bet from the bb so either if he has a 9 maybe he has a 97+.
maybe he has an 98 and had 1cd 8 draw but thats a flip in my view + he may have a real hand so i would draw and make him pay off my raise on the river i guess

i think its close, but that in a pot this big we should pat. it would help if we knew how he'd react to a freeze. do you expect him to c/c #14~ or bet 100% or somewhere in the middle? maybe he'd even bluff 987's and ck 87643?

I agree with that.

If villain is 3betting something "real" pre he has a hand better than a 9 three times as often as he has a 9. So if you freeze, you get ~2BB (maybe a little bit less) from the pot against his range, assuming he checks down all his worse hands.

If you draw, you make 8 or better ~30% (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=9736967), a 7 or better ~19% (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=9736969).

There are a lot more 4-card 8s for him to 3bet pre than there are 4-card 7, so if you make a 7 you are a favorite to get 8BB (+2BB if he bet-calls - 3/4 of the time). So in this case: EV=.19*(8BB+.75*2BB)=1.8BB

Hmm, that doesn't look too good after all. You lose some if you make a 8 as well. Add a little bit of RIO and it's even worse.

Let me retract my earlier agreement (sorry snowboard). Freezing seems to be better.

do you take account the river pay off or hero folds otr?

Agree w HJD

...it would help if we knew how he'd react to a freeze. do you expect him to c/c #14~ or bet 100% or somewhere in the middle? maybe he'd even bluff 987's and ck 87643?

Given his previous play, I would expect his tendencies against a freeze to be betting close to 100% of his range, 96's+ for value & worse 9s as some spazz bluff/blocker bet, so I don't think we can fold to a river lead if we freeze.

Given his previous play, I would expect his tendencies against a freeze to be betting close to 100% of his range, 96's+ for value & worse 9s as some spazz bluff/blocker bet, so I don't think we can fold to a river lead if we freeze.

In that case freezing is not as good.

In any case, I think I messed up my earlier calculation.

EV(freeze)=.25*9BB + .75*(-1BB)=1.5BB

If we round the chance of making a 7 to 20% and a 8 or 9 to 10% each, and assume the 7 is always good. And we assume we get 1BB in with a 8 or 9 (we win a little more often with the 8) and 2BB with a 7.

EV(draw)=.2*10BB + .1*(.3*9BB + .7*(-1BB)) + .1*(.25*9BB + .75*(-1BB)) + .6*0BB= 2.35BB

Does that sound somewhat reasonable? Looks like a pretty clear break now.