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What do you mean? I am running exactly at EV.

I sense redline / penis envy.

EV means less than poop for this game

Last week for me to crush the Greektown 5/10 fk LO8. It's been a fun time with all the regs. I won't miss Greektown's random floor calls (ok, i will a little bit; gambling on floor calls is kinda fun) but i will definitely miss playing in that game.

any idea if non-showdown winnings should be a positive +0 line in triple draw?

for some reason i played capoch hu for like 30 mins today at 30/60. did get a game started and won some $ overall, but that wasnt my brightest decision

but that wasnt my brightest decision

maybe capoch was thinking about the same

i doubt it

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 Limit 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball - 3 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is BB with Q 6 4 3 3
BTN folds, SB calls, Hero checks

First Draw: (2 SB) (2 players)
SB draws 2, Hero draws 2
Hand: A 6 4 3 2
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls

Second Draw: (2 BB) (2 players)
SB draws 2, Hero draws 1
Hand: 6 4 4 3 2
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls

Third Draw: (4 BB) (2 players)
SB draws 1, Hero draws 1
Hand: 6 5 4 3 2
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls

Final Pot: 6 BB
SB mucks 9 8 7 6 5
Hero shows 6 5 4 3 2 (Lo: a straight, Deuce to Six)
Hero wins 5.73 BB
(Rake: $0.27)

Thinnest valuebet ever imo

Probably not interesting but it took me a while to write and needed a home, and i guess it is LC. Here's some detail to an ICM analysis i did in this thread.


The assumptions
Payout %
top 4: 22.245
next 4: 2.245 (not a typo)
9th: 2.041

I made a few assumptions about the 10 (instead of 12, because of limitations in the calculator) stacks left in the tourney.

I will assume that a minraise will provoke Villain to shove the top 29% of his range, but that this same minraise will successfully steal the blinds the other 71%. This obviously doesn't consider that someone else might wake up with a hand, Villain might flat-call, the BB might defend, etc.

I'll also assume based on ProPokerTools that i either scoop, get scooped, or split evenly based on a 29% range for Villain. This ignores the effect of quartering.


The scenarios

Scenario 1: Hero folds; Villain steals successfully. Hero equity is 11.405%, which is basically half a $109 ticket.

Scenario 2: Hero minraises and steals successfully. Hero equity is 12.103%.

Scenario 3a: Hero minraises, Villain shoves, Hero calls and scoops. Hero equity is 17.170%, better than 4/5 of a ticket.

Scenario 3b: Hero minraises, Villain shoves, Hero calls and splits the pot with Villain. Hero equity is 11.735%.

Scenario 3c: Hero minraises, Villain shoves, Hero calls but Villain scoops. Hero equity is 1.53%.

More calcs

According to a ProPokerTools simulation, the salient numbers (by dividing scoops over 600k) are:

Hero scoop .3459,
Split (we’ll assume an even one) .3714
Villain scoop .2827


Therefore the equity of playing for stacks against Villain is 10.73%.


Results of calcs and prescription for action
We're supposing that if Hero minraises, he steals 0.71 of the time but plays for stacks vs. Villain 0.29 of the time (using the 3bet number); therefore, the equity of minraising is 11.70%.

Thinnest valuebet ever imo

Yep, pretty sick. Lately i've been more accustomed to being the donk who doesn't know the rules than exploiting that donk.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 4 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.4 SB) Hero is BB with 9 T 4 A
1 fold, BTN calls, SB calls, Hero checks

Flop: (3 SB) 8 T 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, BTN raises, SB folds, Hero calls

Turn: (3.5 BB) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets, BTN raises, Hero calls

River: (7.5 BB) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Final Pot: 7.5 BB
BTN shows 9 6 5 7 (HI: a flush, Queen high; LO: 8,7,6,5,3)
Hero shows 9 T 4 A (HI: a pair of Tens; LO: 8,5,4,3,A)
BTN wins 3.58 BB
Hero wins 3.58 BB
(Rake: $0.34)

Raising with draw twice, than catching a flush and checking behind. lolwut?

Poker Stars $5/$10 Limit 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball - 2 players - View hand 1759291
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is BTN/SB with T 9 8 3 2
Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls

First Draw: (6 SB) (2 players)
BB draws 1, Hero draws 2
Hand: 8 5 4 3 2
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps!, BB calls

Second Draw: (7 BB) (2 players)
BB draws 2, Hero stands pat
Hand: 8 5 4 3 2
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Third Draw: (9 BB) (2 players)
BB draws 2, Hero stands pat
Hand: 8 5 4 3 2
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Final Pot: 11 BB
Hero shows 8 5 4 3 2 (Lo: 8,5,4,3,2)
BB mucks A A A J 3
Hero wins 10.95 BB
(Rake: $0.50)

I dont remember this happening before this high

Poker Stars $5/$10 Limit 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball - 2 players - View hand 1759291
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.4 SB) Hero is BTN/SB with T 9 8 3 2
Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls

First Draw: (6 SB) (2 players)
BB draws 1, Hero draws 2
Hand: 8 5 4 3 2
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps!, BB calls

Second Draw: (7 BB) (2 players)
BB draws 2, Hero stands pat
Hand: 8 5 4 3 2
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Third Draw: (9 BB) (2 players)
BB draws 2, Hero stands pat
Hand: 8 5 4 3 2
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Final Pot: 11 BB
Hero shows 8 5 4 3 2 (Lo: 8,5,4,3,2)
BB mucks A A A J 3
Hero wins 10.95 BB
(Rake: $0.50)

I dont remember this happening before this high

Drawing 2 with trips doesn't improve his odds of filling up and gives away his hand. Huge leak imo.

Ok now, what was that

Poker Stars $1/$2 Limit 2-7 Triple Draw Lowball - 3 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Draw: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with A 7 6 5 2
BTN calls, SB folds, Hero raises, BTN calls

First Draw: (4.5 SB) (2 players)
Hero draws 1, BTN draws 3
Hand: J 7 6 5 2
Hero bets, BTN calls

Second Draw: (3.25 BB) (2 players)
Hero draws 1, BTN draws 2
Hand: Q 7 6 5 2
Hero bets, BTN calls

Third Draw: (5.25 BB) (2 players)
Hero draws 1, BTN stands pat
Hand: K 7 6 5 2
Hero checks, BTN checks

Final Pot: 5.25 BB
BTN mucks K T 5 3 2
Hero shows K 7 6 5 2 (Lo: K,7,6,5,2)
Hero wins 5.09 BB
(Rake: $0.32)

cmon man its pretty typical at those stakes for fish to pat K's cause they are afraid of pairing!