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Villain's hand looks like a posible straight, when hero c/r's 7th he is essentially announcing he can beat a straight unless he plans on folding to a 3 bet.

So you don't think that the hero could be c/ring a 7 high straight or trips here? How about As up? I would certainly expect the villain to bet anything that beats 6s up and maybe even a hand like JJ-AA here when checked to.

Hero's hand looks bare, when villain 3-bets he is saying he has at a minimum a straight or that he can beat the most likely range that hero has when he c/r's - what do you think hero's hand looks like in villain's eyes? Do you still think hero should raise? Remember, there is no cap, its a live game.

Based off our range I said above, I would expect villain to be reraising anything that beats a 7 high straight and maybe something that beats trip 6s. Let me ask you this, if you had a 7 high straight or trip 6s here would you fold to a reraise? I think you would have to make a crying call in a pot this big and that's why I would expect him to reraise with a straight or possibly higher trips. I think by putting the 4th bet in on 7th you are now forcing him to make the crying call with his straight or trips in a big pot. I just feel like he can have too many hands here having to call that we would be missing out on value from. I haven't actually done the combos though(just put it on my to do list for tomorrow).

The game might be uncapped, but that doesn't mean we have to take it to the felt. If we are reraised again, then I am probably going to make a crying call. Plus like Axe said earlier, he may not put the 5th bet in even with a bigger fullhouse for fear of us having quads or something.

I think its a good time for me to share my thoughts on the hand. I don't assume my thought process to be 100% correct, I may have missed some possible combinations along the way (and if so please feel free to post it in this thread so I can revise the calcs) but I thought I'd share it with you all because it doesn't seem to match what some of your assumptions are. I spent two hours combing over the calculations in this hand, hope I didnt make any mistakes! Get read for a long post, hope its not too tl/dr for ya ;-)

3rd street: Hero’s equity edge is so small vs any 2 random down cards that its best to just call the completion on 3rd, raising just inflates the pot and in fact may reduce fold equity on future streets when hero needs it most due to pot size.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
2s 2d 3s 53.30% (319,800 wins, 22 ties)
* * | 9c 46.70% (280,178 wins, 22 ties)

4th street (5sb): As discussed in the OP, it’s the Hero’s read that villain’s strongest “hold’em range” hands will exhibit more action on 3rd, since villain didn’t re-raise on 3rd I think we can remove JJ-KK from this range. I chose to keep AA in the range for balance because the villain might choose to slowplay this hand or KK so we include 4 combinations out of the possible 8 of AA-KK combined. This means I expect more action from overcards that connect well with this board, as well as pairs 55-KK on 4th. Hero is likely behind, but has enough pot equity to continue, his equity share of the pot is 3.2sb after calling. NOTE – in a tough HU match hero can might expect to be c/r’ed on this board vs. some opponents with absolute air – if that is the case then villain still has a small equity edge assuming one small and one middle card in the hole, hero only gets the equity edge if two non-paired cards 6 or less are in the hole)
RANGE: 55-QQ, AA, 53, 78, 89, TJ, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts (53 was included to add balance to range for possible air from a tough player)

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
2s 2d 3s 6d 35.93% (215,574 wins, 8 ties)
55-QQ, AA, 53, 78, 89, TJ, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts 64.07% (384,418 wins, 8 ties)

5th Street (4.5BB): When hero is raised we can greatly reduce villain’s range, villain now knows he is up against sixes up at a minimum, therefore he isn’t going to be raising at the bottom end of his range unless he thinks he can buy a free card in position on 6th – a high variance proposition considering Hero’s likely range of 2 pair. RANGE A below shows the tigher end of villain’s range, RANGE B includes the possibility of a raise for a free card. Without a prior read I would chose to follow RANGE A and therefore fold, I need prior evidence to go with RANGE B.

RANGE A: 55, 9T, 95, T5, TT | 9c Ts 5h – Hero has 18% equity, and should therefore fold

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
2s 2d | 3s 6d 6h 18.04% (108,237 wins, 0 ties)
55, 9T, 95, T5, TT | 9c Ts 5h 81.96% (491,763 wins, 0 ties)

RANGE B: 55, 9T, 95, T5, TT, 78, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts 5h – Hero has 45% equity and therefore can continue to play on

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
2s 2d | 3s 6d 6h 45.29% (271,738 wins, 0 ties)
55, 9T, 95, T5, TT, 78, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts 5h 54.71% (328,262 wins, 0 ties)

We will be using RANGE B from this point forward since hero chose to call.
6th Street (8.5BB): This is one of the worst cards hero could see but the pot is so huge that folding would be incorrect. The pot is laying 9.5:1, hero’s equity share is 2.52BB – its thin, but a call is absolutely correct in the long run. I don’t think the action on this street changes the prior range, therefore we continue with RANGE B unchanged

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
2s 2d | 3s 6d 6h 7c 24.00% (144,029 wins, 0 ties)
55, 9T, 95, T5, TT, 78, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts 5h Jh 76.00% (455,971 wins, 0 ties)

7th Street (10.5BB): I tried running this street through ProPokerTools but I keep getting an error that says “Failed Could not compute any results. Simulation is either impossible or impractical to complete”, ironic because that error statement kind of sums up 7th street for the hero. It’s my assumption that villain knows that If Hero raises the river with a board of 3s 6d 6h 7c – he always has a boat, there are no other hands within hero’s range that he could possibly have that is logical, trip sixes is impossible because hero would have folded with naked 66 earlier in the hand. Hero’s hand is practically exposed when he raises, villain’s 3-bet almost ALWAYS crushes hero’s range. I know this goes contrary to what has been previously assumed in this thread, but I really do believe the hero is crushed close to 93% of the time. Since a call shows a positive EV of .085 BB calling is just barely correct –4-betting is pure suicide in my eyes.

To wrap things up, if I were the hero I would -

1) call on 3rd instead of raise

2) fold on 5th

3) call a 3-bet on the river.If the pot were 2BB smaller I would fold to the 3-bet.

For what it's worth, when the hero first told me the hand I said raise, call a 5bet on 7th, but once I saw it all on paper I realized how precise villain would see hero's hand and therefore putting any more raises into the pot was spewing.

Opinions? I hope to get some rebuttal, I admit that the optimal play in this hand is highly subjective

3rd street: Hero’s equity edge is so small vs any 2 random down cards that its best to just call the completion on 3rd, raising just inflates the pot and in fact may reduce fold equity on future streets when hero needs it most due to pot size.

Agreed.

4th street (5sb): As discussed in the OP, it’s the Hero’s read that villain’s strongest “hold’em range” hands will exhibit more action on 3rd, since villain didn’t re-raise on 3rd I think we can remove JJ-KK from this range. I chose to keep AA in the range for balance because the villain might choose to slowplay this hand or KK so we include 4 combinations out of the possible 8 of AA-KK combined. This means I expect more action from overcards that connect well with this board, as well as pairs 55-KK on 4th. Hero is likely behind, but has enough pot equity to continue, his equity share of the pot is 3.2sb after calling. NOTE – in a tough HU match hero can might expect to be c/r’ed on this board vs. some opponents with absolute air – if that is the case then villain still has a small equity edge assuming one small and one middle card in the hole, hero only gets the equity edge if two non-paired cards 6 or less are in the hole)
RANGE: 55-QQ, AA, 53, 78, 89, TJ, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts (53 was included to add balance to range for possible air from a tough player)

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
2s 2d 3s 6d 35.93% (215,574 wins, 8 ties)
55-QQ, AA, 53, 78, 89, TJ, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts 64.07% (384,418 wins, 8 ties)

I think your range for villain is balanced and fair on this street. I might have included 63 as part of the air range as you mentioned that villain will play back quite a bit based on hero's dead outs. As villain would expect hero to bet with his entire range, villain will C/R with air, perceived value hands, and semi-bluffs. The air and semi-bluffs, have to be followed by either a bet or a raise on 5th to remain balanced and to have any chance of later fold equity. I would expect villain to try to overrepresent his hand on 5th some percentage of the time to win without SD if possible.

5th Street (4.5BB): When hero is raised we can greatly reduce villain’s range, villain now knows he is up against sixes up at a minimum, therefore he isn’t going to be raising at the bottom end of his range unless he thinks he can buy a free card in position on 6th – a high variance proposition considering Hero’s likely range of 2 pair. RANGE A below shows the tigher end of villain’s range, RANGE B includes the possibility of a raise for a free card. Without a prior read I would chose to follow RANGE A and therefore fold, I need prior evidence to go with RANGE B.

RANGE A: 55, 9T, 95, T5, TT | 9c Ts 5h – Hero has 18% equity, and should therefore fold


RANGE B: 55, 9T, 95, T5, TT, 78, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts 5h – Hero has 45% equity and therefore can continue to play on

I think RANGE A is far too tight and unrealistic. It's a range that villain may hope to project to hero to get him to fold incorrectly. The problem I have with it is that it includes two trip hands that villain usually waits until 6th street to raise with along with two pair hands that are likely to be ahead our perceived range. While I expect villain to be balanced enough to include these hands in his range, I can't narrow his range that greatly based on his C/R on 4th and raise on 5th to give him credit for two pair or better. It would just be such a coup for him to take the pot down with just an OESD, to dismiss those hands from his range. It would also be disappointing for him to have us fold two pair when he has us crushed. I would narrow his range by taking air out of it but I find RANGE B to be quite more realistic and balanced. Futhermore, RANGE B is more intuned with some the reasons I mentioned for him C/R'ing 4th. If we give up when C/R'ed on 4th and raised on 5th HU giving villain the top of his range then we are going to be exploited a lot.

We will be using RANGE B from this point forward since hero chose to call.
6th Street (8.5BB): This is one of the worst cards hero could see but the pot is so huge that folding would be incorrect. The pot is laying 9.5:1, hero’s equity share is 2.52BB – its thin, but a call is absolutely correct in the long run. I don’t think the action on this street changes the prior range, therefore we continue with RANGE B unchanged

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
2s 2d | 3s 6d 6h 7c 24.00% (144,029 wins, 0 ties)
55, 9T, 95, T5, TT, 78, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts 5h Jh 76.00% (455,971 wins, 0 ties)

I concur with your analysis of 6th street.

7th Street (10.5BB): I tried running this street through ProPokerTools but I keep getting an error that says “Failed Could not compute any results. Simulation is either impossible or impractical to complete”

You only get that error when you duplicate a card for Hero and Villain.

ironic because that error statement kind of sums up 7th street for the hero. It’s my assumption that villain knows that If Hero raises the river with a board of 3s 6d 6h 7c – he always has a boat

If that's the case then calling the 3bet on the river is really bad because we have the weakest possible boat. We have essentially the "bluff catcher" boat which will be always behind his hand. Our absolute hand strength is really strong but relative hand strength would be tremendously weak.

there are no other hands within hero’s range that he could possibly have that is logical, trip sixes is impossible because hero would have folded with naked 66 earlier in the hand. Hero’s hand is practically exposed when he raises, villain’s 3-bet almost ALWAYS crushes hero’s range. I know this goes contrary to what has been previously assumed in this thread, but I really do believe the hero is crushed close to 93% of the time. Since a call shows a positive EV of .085 BB calling is just barely correct –4-betting is pure suicide in my eyes.

How do you get this 93% figure? Do you think we should be C/R bluffing this river if our hand is "practically exposed" to get straights to fold? Do you expect Villain to be 3bet bluffing or "overvaluing" his straight 7% of the time? What's a little strange is that I get around 93% for Hero on 7th based on a random river for villain using your RANGE B.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
2s 2d | 3s 6d 6h 7c|2 93.72% (562,302 wins, 0 ties)
55, 9T, 95, T5, TT, 78, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts 5h Jh|* 6.28% (37,698 wins, 0 ties)

Also, using RANGE B and having villain flash one of his boat outs to us, we are about a 77% favourite to having the best hand.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
2s 2d | 3s 6d 6h 7c|2 77.27% (463,642 wins, 0 ties)
55, 9T, 95, T5, TT, 78, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts 5h Jh| J, T, 9, 5 22.73% (136,358 wins, 0 ties)

To wrap things up, if I were the hero I would -

1) call on 3rd instead of raise

2) fold on 5th

3) call a 3-bet on the river.If the pot were 2BB smaller I would fold to the 3-bet.

For what it's worth, when the hero first told me the hand I said raise, call a 5bet on 7th, but once I saw it all on paper I realized how precise villain would see hero's hand and therefore putting any more raises into the pot was spewing.

Opinions? I hope to get some rebuttal, I admit that the optimal play in this hand is highly subjective

I agree with with calling 3rd. Disagree with folding on 5th. I am at least calling a 3bet on 7th even 2bb's less. He has to show me a boat for me to muck HU. In that case, it would be unlucky rivers. You may have persuaded me from putting in any extra action but as I mentioned before it's opponent specific. With some opponents, I would expect to be shown a boat the vast majority of the time. I still call because it would be horrible to make such a hero laydown HU in a pot this size or even smaller. BTW, the antes are big, 1/4 of a BB, so taking down a pot without SD is huge, even bigger to make your opponent make an incorrect fold. If villain shows up with a boat it's kind of a cooler, as he can't have a boat before the river.

This is a great thread.

I have to say that my feelings are pretty close to Axe's on this hand.

Someone help me out, what is the "hold'em range"?

Someone help me out, what is the "hold'em range"?

Hold'em range indicates the type of hands that you would reraise without a thought in hold'em although obviously not relatively as strong in stud. Generally, would be the bigger pairs AA-JJ and sometimes 10-10.

4th street (5sb): As discussed in the OP, it’s the Hero’s read that villain’s strongest “hold’em range” hands will exhibit more action on 3rd, since villain didn’t re-raise on 3rd I think we can remove JJ-KK from this range. RANGE: 55-QQ, AA, 53, 78, 89, TJ, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts (53 was included to add balance to range for possible air from a tough player)

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
2s 2d 3s 6d 35.93% (215,574 wins, 8 ties)
55-QQ, AA, 53, 78, 89, TJ, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts 64.07% (384,418 wins, 8 ties)

I didn't notice that you correctly took out JJ-KK from his range and for the reasons listed above put in AA, but you also incorrectly snuck JJ-QQ back into his range. Also, I would take rolled up 9's from his range as it totally doesn't match his slowplay to 6th style. The equity only changes 1% for both sides but is more accurate.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
2s 2d 3s 6d 36.86% (221,166 wins, 6 ties)
55-88,TT, AA, 53, 78, 89, TJ, JQ, 8J | 9c Ts 63.14% (378,828 wins, 6 ties)