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Full Tilt Poker $10/$20 Limit Stud $1.50 Ante - 8 players - View hand 862145
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3rd Street: (1.2 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 8 ____Seat 1 folds
Seat 2: xx xx 9 ____Seat 2 folds
Seat 3: xx xx 4 ____Seat 3 brings in for $3____Seat 3 calls
Seat 4: xx xx K ____Seat 4 folds
Seat 5: xx xx 8 ____Seat 5 folds
Seat 6: xx xx A ____Seat 6 completes____Seat 6 calls
Hero: Q T T ___Hero raises
Seat 8: xx xx 7 ____Seat 8 folds

4th Street: (7.2 SB) (3 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 4 4 ____Seat 3 checks____Seat 3 calls
Seat 6: xx xx A K ____Seat 6 bets
Hero: Q T T J ___Hero calls

5th Street: (6.6 BB) (3 players)
Seat 3: xx xx 4 4 J ____Seat 3 folds
Seat 6: xx xx A K Q ____Seat 6 folds
Hero: Q T T J T ___Hero bets

Final Pot: 6.6 BB

Edit: The bet on 4th was a double bet.

The Ace was opening a lot, he could be on a steal. The bring was somewhat passive and liked to call. He checked on 4th though. Should I continue on in this hand, should I raise 4th?

Not crazy about the 4th st call. You think the AK is betting air when the 4 pairs his door? You'd expect him to reraise Aces on 3rd, and there is a dead King, but it just seems super fishy to bet there without AA or KK...Plus the 4 could still have a hand...

OP - assuming that seat six doesn't have (Ax)A, what do you think his 3rd street range is once he bets 4th street?

Other than this question which is designed to help you help yourself, I reiterate everything Blumpster said.

If he reads seat 3's hands as weak, he could bet his board with a lot of hands to try and get it HU with him. Hands such as pairs between 55 and 99, broadway draws, sometimes random crap. Other than that, he had broadways on 3rd that made him a pair of Kings or passively played Aces.

If he reads seat 3's hands as weak, he could bet his board with a lot of hands to try and get it HU with him. Hands such as pairs between 55 and 99, broadway draws, sometimes random crap. Other than that, he had broadways on 3rd that made him a pair of Kings or passively played Aces.

sounds like you know what to do already =p

I was curious, so I ran some sims:

I think this would be our best case scenario with both of them having weak ranges. I also didn't give seat 3 a chance to have trips in this.
ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 89k87
qctdthjs 29.02% (173,785 wins, 648 ties)
55-99, t+t+|adks 36.37% (217,887 wins, 652 ties)
*c*c, 55-99|4c4s 34.61% (207,674 wins, 8 ties)

I think these are more realistic ranges, but still fairly wide.
ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 89k87
qctdthjs 20.96% (125,478 wins, 565 ties)
55-aa, t+t+|adks 25.22% (151,021 wins, 565 ties)
*c*c, 4* ,55-aa|4c4s 53.82% (322,933 wins, 6 ties)

This is if we also allow seat 6 to have any 2 underneath like you said.
ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 89k87
qctdthjs 27.66% (165,841 wins, 202 ties)
55-aa, t+t+, **|adks 14.25% (85,384 wins, 204 ties)
*c*c, 4* ,55-aa|4c4s 58.10% (348,567 wins, 10 ties)

I could be wrong in estimating seat 3's range, but he is calling a 3 bet on 3rd.

None of these sims make me very excited about our hand on 4th.

What would you have done if you caught 2 on 5th?
or even the 9? remember atleast two 8s and two Ks are dead

T+T+ is probably too strong, it includes all the wired pairs and big Aces, that would have been 3bet on 3rd, probably.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 89k87
qctdthjs 33.83% (202,359 wins, 1,195 ties)
55-99, kq,kj,kt,qj,qt,jt|adks 30.58% (182,899 wins, 1,198 ties)
*c*c, 55-99,23,35,56|4c4s 35.59% (213,542 wins, 7 ties)

I tweaked the ranges some, to better support my argument :-)

I think raising is the best option on 4th, if we can get the 4s to fold, we are about a coinflip against the AK. Against the stronger part of this range, we are not too big of a dog, and the pot has some dead money in it.

I tweaked the ranges some, to better support my argument :-)

Agreed. You took out the entire top end of both players' ranges.

T+T+ is probably too strong, it includes all the wired pairs and big Aces, that would have been 3bet on 3rd, probably.

Holdem players 3 bet 3rd street, many stud players cold call. Because of your 3rd street assumptions I think your range is either tailored to meet your assumptions, or you know very specific playing habits about both players that haven't been shared yet - but vs the avg stud player I dont agree with your ranges - its both wider and narrower than you projected.

I think raising is the best option on 4th, if we can get the 4s to fold, we are about a coinflip against the AK. Against the stronger part of this range, we are not too big of a dog, and the pot has some dead money in it.

This sounds like something Jeffery Lisandro would do. I don't think he plays that good, don't be Lisandro ;-) Roughly speaking, the only way the 4s will fold is if he is at the bottom end of his range... if he is at the bottom end of his range then why would you want him to fold?

To be honest, creating ranges for these two players is pretty tough. I think its a lot closer to what I showed below, and even then I think there is a lot of room for fudging. My advice when creating ranges for these tough spots is to not by so optimistic; be honest in your ranges, and in tough spots like this it pays to give them a narrower range as a precaution. For example I don't really think the average bringin is going to call 2 to the face with 22 in the hole, but I included it just to show that we are so far behind his range even when it's expanded to include any pair (and yes, he will often slowplay KK and AA here, stud players love deception). Although the bringin's range includes any 2 clubs, I think thats a little wide as well, in reality average players dont call 2 to the face with (2c7c)4c without closing the action

ProPokerTools Stud Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 8 9 K 8 7
Qc Td Th Js 24.93% (149,166 wins, 850 ties)
99d, T+T+ | Ad Ks 34.73% (207,956 wins, 851 ties)
*c *c, 22-AA, 35, 56, 44, 45, 43 | 4c4s 40.34% (242,026 wins, 4 ties)

Because of your 3rd street assumptions I think your range is either tailored to meet your assumptions

That's the point in working with ranges, right? To construct them in a way, that they meet our assumptions of the players' actions.

If you meant, that I created my assumptions to get the outcome I desired, well, you are probably right.

Roughly speaking, the only way the 4s will fold is if he is at the bottom end of his range... if he is at the bottom end of his range then why would you want him to fold?

To win more often, let him fold his equity.

To be honest, creating ranges for these two players is pretty tough.

I agree. Your range for the Ace seems way too strong for example.

I concede that not folding 4th is only right with the most advantageous of assumptions.

That's the point in working with ranges, right? To construct them in a way, that they meet our assumptions of the players' actions.

If you meant, that I created my assumptions to get the outcome I desired, well, you are probably right.

If you have a very specific read on the players actions that do not match normal conventions then why would you post the hand? I avoid posting hands that are hyper specific to my knowledge of a player because others reading the thread would never understand - if its a "you had to be there" situation then it never makes for a good thread.

To win more often, let him fold his equity.

If the bringing folds your only reassigning his pot equity to the other villain in the hand. His equity edge over your hand using the rather liberal range I posted earlier increases from 15% to nearly 20%.

I agree. Your range for the Ace seems way too strong for example.

I actually think its way too weak, I included hands that he probably would not play by leading on 4th street into two VERY connected boards just so we could add some balance to the range (such as 99) and show that even with the unlikely hands included in the range you are still a significant dog. His hand at worst looks like (K,*)A but I was being very generous. Remember - we need to construct the range based on 3rd & 4th street actions only, do not let results of the hand factor into the range.

I concede that not folding 4th is only right with the most advantageous of assumptions.

As stated earlier I agree with Blumpkin, I don't like the call on 4th. If you didn't catch your door card on 5th the results of the hand would have been vastly different... the bringin's range would have been revised, and the A's range would have been narrowed greatly - and you would be behind that range.

I rearranged the quoted part a bit.

If the bringing folds your only reassigning his pot equity to the other villain in the hand. His equity edge over your hand using the rather liberal range I posted earlier increases from 15% to nearly 20%.

I was not aware of that fact.

If you have a very specific read on the players actions that do not match normal conventions then why would you post the hand? I avoid posting hands that are hyper specific to my knowledge of a player because others reading the thread would never understand - if its a "you had to be there" situation then it never makes for a good thread.

I actually think its way too weak, I included hands that he probably would not play by leading on 4th street into two VERY connected boards just so we could add some balance to the range (such as 99) and show that even with the unlikely hands included in the range you are still a significant dog. His hand at worst looks like (K,*)A but I was being very generous. Remember - we need to construct the range based on 3rd & 4th street actions only, do not let results of the hand factor into the range.

I did not have a specific read. "He steals wide and might be tricky" is the extent of my read on Seat 6. Inferring the range I gave was most likely a mistake based on wishful thinking. My thinking went something like this:

- Seat 3 didn't bet, therefore he has very little
- Seat 6 should be wary of Seat 3's board (and my raise on 3rd), but he bet anyway, therefore he must be bluffing. I don't see players betting one pair hands very often in that situation.

Basically, I gave both of them no credit for having any kind of value hand here. Which is wrong.

As stated earlier I agree with Blumpster, I don't like the call on 4th. If you didn't catch your door card on 5th the results of the hand would have been vastly different... the bringin's range would have been revised, and the A's range would have been narrowed greatly - and you would be behind that range.

FYP.
I was actually agreeing with you here, it was probably worded weirdly. To clarify: Folding on 4th is right 100%.

If I somehow knew, that they were both as weak as I postulated earlier, raising is right. But they never are (or I can't know if they are), so it's not.

I would like 3rd street and the peel on 4th street a lot better if all the diamonds were live.

3rd street is fine, but once the bring pairs and we face a bet from xxAK, our RIO rise quickly.