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Poker Video: Misc/Other by Joe Tall (Mid Stakes)

FIRST

Great video! Lots of really good spots that Joe managed to get himself into. As far as the 876 hands:

(1) The first one I think it is a clear mistake to draw to the 7642. The reason is that stac is going to chase draws that are dead to both a 7 or an 8, is going to pay off with a lot of worse hands, and you can always break if he raises you because your 876 is never good. Getting the value of your made 8 100% of the time is more important than making a 7 33% of the time and sometimes losing the pot when you brick out all three times. Also, note that your 7 draw is rough since you're drawing to #2 and #4, which devalues drawing to the 7 a bit.

(2) The second one is closer, because it is multiway. Even, so I think it is still best to keep the 87632 because you'll often get one or both of your opponents to draw to a 9 or a T if they either started with it initially in their draw or they pick it up in an early round of drawing. Plus they will pay off any 9 or T they make at any point, so you can confidently keep value betting.

These specific cases aside, I think DD's advice of drawing to the 7 is spot on in tougher games where the considerations that he outlines are more likely to apply:
(a) Players will value raise made 8s more frequently and call down if you 3bet, which vastly increases the value of making a 7. Sometimes you'll get an opponent to put in more bets because he has a strong like #4 or #5 versus your 7 or because they are trying to make some elaborate move (e.g. represent a monster to get you to break).
(b) When you face a raise, your opponent's range will often consist of a lot of 8s plus a few other hands trying to get you to break/fold. So you'll definitely be losing money with every dollar that goes into the pot once you are raised, but you often can't fold because of the pot odds you are getting.
(c) Most players will play almost perfectly in terms of their drawing decisions against a pat 876. In fact, that's the basic type of hand they are usually putting you on. Occasionally, you'll get someone to draw to a 9 or make a 9 on the end and pay off, but in general you get very little value on the end.

Very nice vid. You gotta do the Stud/8 thing One question: in the hand where Joe has a free ride with 876, would you keep 765 and 654 as well or break it? Do you think it's a superclose decision or not?

CD

Very nice vid. You gotta do the Stud/8 thing One question: in the hand where Joe has a free ride with 876, would you keep 765 and 654 as well or break it? Do you think it's a superclose decision or not?

CD

Out of those I think keeping the 876 and the 654 are easy decisions and I think the 765 is a bit closer but would still keep it rather than also tossing the 6. When you get these hands that don't contain the almighty deuce, its not going to be a fun spot so generally I'm hoping to catch a deuce or get away cheap (sometimes though I'll catch the 3 and like my hand ok).

Also, awesome post sweetjazz.

Out of those I think keeping the 876 and the 654 are easy decisions and I think the 765 is a bit closer but would still keep it rather than also tossing the 6. When you get these hands that don't contain the almighty deuce, its not going to be a fun spot so generally I'm hoping to catch a deuce or get away cheap (sometimes though I'll catch the 3 and like my hand ok).

Well, I can see your point. But precisely because your decision is so "binary" wouldn't it be a good idea to actually drop one (worst) card and draw to 75 and 54 INCREASING your chances of catching a deuce by almost 50%? That, and also 752rr and 542rr are not that much worse than 7652r and 6542r (where r is a random card) since, again, this "rr" is almost twice as likely to contain a good card than "r" is.

CD

Well, I can see your point. But precisely because your decision is so "binary" wouldn't it be a good idea to actually drop one (worst) card and draw to 75 and 54 INCREASING your chances of catching a deuce by almost 50%? That, and also 752rr and 542rr are not that much worse than 7652r and 6542r (where r is a random card) since, again, this "rr" is almost twice as likely to contain a good card than "r" is.

CD

Yes, keeping two cards and drawing three will give us a better chance to get the cards that we would like, but it also gives us a better chance to get what we don't like. Without taking into consideration dead cards, for every card we draw we are just as likely to pull an ace as we are to get a deuce (probably more likely to draw an ace since our opponents will presumably have them). Hence, by drawing more we increased our chances of drawing a brick in addition to drawing a two.

Also, consider the 765 example. If we toss the 6 and draw 3 cards and pull just a deuce, we will be left with 752xx after the first draw and we will draw two for the second draw. Now after the second draw we get a 6, giving us 7652x. If we stick around for the last draw, we certainly wont drop the 6, therefore we should keep it off the bat.

I think as far as drawing one card with two draws remaining compared to drawing two cards is a significant difference, especially when comparing 7652x to 542xx since 542xx will make a straight enough of the time offset the better 7.

Time Link to 00:49:55

Drawing at the 7-6-4-2 three times, we have 11 outs (four 3s, four 5s, three 8s). (11/47) + (11/46) + (11/45) = 0.7176 ~ 72%. So after drawing three times at our 7-6-4-2 we will make an 8-7 or a seven about 72% of the time. Is this correct or am I missing something? Even if we reduce our outs to 8 in consideration of likely card removal, we will make at least an 8-7 about 52% of the time.

Time Link to 00:17:42

Are you completing the SB in this game with the 83?

Are you completing the SB in this game with the 83?

No I would not play that hand from SB in almost any situation, its just a trap

Time Link to 00:06:57

I'd be very surprised if you still think this is a check in a low stakes passive game such as this.