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Obv villian is quite passive(river check back with 87), so when he raises turn, there's no way I have him beat. Therefore, calling raise and patting(intending to c/c river) seems bad.

So....... do I fold or call and break? Any other thoughts??

Merge $1/$2 Limit 2-7 Lowball - 4 players
Wombat Poker Hand Converter 0.2

momomey1111 (BB): $23.79
Hero (CO): $62.17
LibraryCop (BTN): $15.50
bzj123 (SB): $46.82

Pre Draw: ($1.50)
Hand: Q 2 K 4 5
Hero raises to $2, LibraryCop calls $2, bzj123 folds, momomey1111 folds

First Draw: ($5.50) (2 players)
Hero draws 2, LibraryCop draws 2
Hand: 5 2 9 4 5
Hero checks, LibraryCop checks

Second Draw: ($5.50) (2 players)
Hero draws 2, LibraryCop draws 2
Hand: 9 2 8 4 5
Hero bets $2, LibraryCop raises to $4, Hero calls $2

Third Draw: ($13.50) (2 players)
Hero stands pat, LibraryCop stands pat
Hand: 9 2 8 4 5
Hero checks, LibraryCop checks

Final Pot: $13.50
Hero shows 9 2 8 4 5
LibraryCop shows 5 4 8 3 7
LibraryCop wins $12.83 (8-7-5-4-3)
(Rake: $0.67)

His river passivity is not necessarily indicative of his turn passivity. In particular, raising the hand he had is not very passive. Against some villains breaking here can be bad. I think patting and c/f river is best.

If you're very sure he has you beat, calling and breaking is fine.

this is fine, a c/f otr vs most.

this is fine, a c/f otr vs most.

So calling a 3bet OTT intending to fold river is OK? Don't you expect your opponent to bet most rivers??

So calling a 3bet OTT intending to fold river is OK? Don't you expect your opponent to bet most rivers??

(not a 3bet, just a bet and a raise)
No we don't expect him to bet too often on the river. You both went from 2 to pat, both your ranges are somewhat weak. He will check back always when you are ahead and even sometimes when he is ahead. Unless he snows of course.

(not a 3bet, just a bet and a raise)
No we don't expect him to bet too often on the river. You both went from 2 to pat, both your ranges are somewhat weak. He will check back always when you are ahead and even sometimes when he is ahead. Unless he snows of course.

Whoops you're right

Thanks for the advice guys.

this is fine, a c/f otr vs most.

As villain, would you turn T9 into a bluff on the river?

Unless villain is making this play with all pat jacks and tens I am pretty sure breaking will be better than call and stand pat. Kinda guesstimating the chance our hand is good compared to when its not good and we have 0% equity, compared to drawing and having X% equity, etc.

Unless villain is making this play with all pat jacks and tens I am pretty sure breaking will be better than call and stand pat. Kinda guesstimating the chance our hand is good compared to when its not good and we have 0% equity, compared to drawing and having X% equity, etc.

If villain is raising all Ts & Js I think breaking is a pretty significant mistake. If villain is raising all Ts & better I think its pretty close.

Using some quick gorilla math, if villain starts with a hand like 732xx and we ignore card removal for now, I think there are 13 different T8s or better he can make on the turn and we are ahead 5 of them or 38% of the time. When we're ahead we have about 70% equity vs a draw, so overall I think we have about .38*.7 = 27% equity. If we break and draw we have about 31% equity vs a T, 26% vs a 9 & rough 87 & 15% vs a hand like 86542 & are dead vs a 7. I would guess this comes in under 27% equity when we average them, but its probably pretty close. If we give villain a hand like 862xx instead, the equity of patting increases.

Some other stuff we should probably consider is the reverse implied odds of patting a marginal hand OOP as well as whether villain will pat worse if we pat the 98 here. If villain is going to pat a 987 behind when we pat in front, I think breaking becomes a mistake at that point.

If anyone notices some significant flaws in my math, please point them out, I did this up pretty quick.