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Some Supernova a-whack in seat 5 chatted in the box that I played the hand like an idiot. Of course, he said that to anyone at the table about every 3 hands. Thoughts? Can I, should I fold 5th or 6th?

Poker Stars $2/$4 Limit Stud Hi/Lo $0.40 Ante - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

3rd Street: (1.2 SB)
Seat 1: xx xx 2 ____Seat 1 brings in for $0.60____Seat 1 folds
Seat 2: xx xx 5 ____Seat 2 completes____Seat 2 calls
Seat 3: xx xx 3 ____Seat 3 calls____Seat 3 calls
Hero: 7 6 2 ___Hero raises
Seat 5: xx xx 6 ____Seat 5 calls
Seat 6: xx xx 8 ____Seat 6 folds

4th Street: (9.5 SB) (4 players)
Seat 2: xx xx 5 A ____Seat 2 bets
Seat 3: xx xx 3 Q ____Seat 3 folds
Hero: 7 6 2 8 ___Hero calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6 A ____Seat 5 checks____Seat 5 calls

5th Street: (6.25 BB) (3 players)
Seat 2: xx xx 5 A T ____Seat 2 bets
Hero: 7 6 2 8 9 ___Hero calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6 A 9 ____Seat 5 calls

6th Street: (9.25 BB) (3 players)
Seat 2: xx xx 5 A T J ____Seat 2 bets
Hero: 7 6 2 8 9 T ___Hero calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6 A 9 A ____Seat 5 checks____Seat 5 calls

7th Street: (12.25 BB) (3 players)
Seat 2: xx xx 5 A T J xx____Seat 2 bets
Hero: 7 6 2 8 9 T 5 ___Hero calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6 A 9 A xx____Seat 5 checks____Seat 5 calls

We are always calling 5th, and even if we were only going for half on 6th (which we are not, we are live to scoop), we'd still be calling 6th.

No folding. Unless my ranges are wrong, I think we should be raising 5th.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 283q
az,a5,23,34,46,67, ldld, lsls|5dasts 34.40% (94,945 scoops, 198,855 wins hi, 82 ties hi, 160,418 wins lo, 2,164 ties lo)
7h6h2h8s9h 41.57% (135,749 scoops, 291,996 wins hi, 684 ties hi, 147,577 wins lo, 223 ties lo)
34,35,45,57,6w,az, ldld|6dah9s 24.03% (43,269 scoops, 108,425 wins hi, 682 ties hi, 148,942 wins lo, 2,284 ties lo)

You may even get seat 6 to fold his equity with a RR on 5th to look like this.
ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 283q6a9
az,a5,23,34,46,67,ldld,lsls|5dasts 46.05% (170,613 scoops, 267,784 wins hi, 34 ties hi, 184,502 wins lo, 77 ties lo)
7h6h|2h8s9h 53.95% (217,939 scoops, 332,182 wins hi, 34 ties hi, 219,147 wins lo, 77 ties lo)


Same for 6th.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 283q
az,a5,23,34,46,67,ldld,lsls|5dastsjs 30.59% (113,584 scoops, 172,721 wins hi, 36 ties hi, 117,845 wins lo, 895 ties lo)
7h6h|2h8s9htd 56.86% (250,730 scoops, 393,191 wins hi, 262 ties hi, 109,666 wins lo, 22 ties lo)
34,35,45,57,6w,az,ldld|6dah9sac 12.56% (17,854 scoops, 33,826 wins hi, 226 ties hi, 98,379 wins lo, 917 ties lo)

No folding. Unless my ranges are wrong, I think we should be raising 5th.

Same for 6th.

I am on board with that.

I might just flat on 3rd since the dead cards aren't great for us, but I bet raising is fine.

I feel like raising 5th is ok, but I guess thats a math problem. If they didn't both have aces on board, I'd be happier about it.

I'd raise 6th for sure too. Even if the jig is up about the strength of your high hand, they'll still call with low draws and flush draws and such.

7th as played is interesting... Its probably worth flatting to try and get an (almost guaranteed) overcall, since your raising value doesn't seem super high.

Seat 2's lead on 5th seems odd to me and I'd wonder about a flushdraw and might call on 6th because of it (since he leads into seat 6's paired Aces when he obviously has missed all lows). EasySq's ranges for him have to be adjusted based on the action on 5th and 6th, unless you have a read that he's lagtarded

I also like calling on 3rd as you don't mind letting seats 5/6 in with so many of your outs dead for low.

I agree with Gergery although I might raise 5th street. When Seat 2 fires 6th street, flushes and flush draws make up a greater part of his range. Even if he has 23 underneath with one spade we are behind in equity assuming Easy's range is correct for Seat 5.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 283q
2s3|5dastsjs 46.12% (189,997 scoops, 263,044 wins hi, 0 ties hi, 192,213 wins lo, 102 ties lo)
7h6h|2h8s9htd 42.14% (165,418 scoops, 291,096 wins hi, 197 ties hi, 97,503 wins lo, 43 ties lo)
34,35,45,57,6w,az,ldld|6dah9sac 11.75% (21,657 scoops, 45,663 wins hi, 197 ties hi, 73,457 wins lo, 145 ties lo)

I would call 6th and 7th.

The more I think about this, I think I should've folded 4th. Off suit 8 doesn't play well against most calling ranges here. I called in the middle on 4th with an Ace on either side. I gotta think there are much better low draws out.

On 7th, seat 5 over called with aces and (24)6a9a(7). Seat 2 had the flush. I am a bit concerned my after the fact analysis is results oriented. So I would love to hear thoughts on folding 4th.

I think your being results oriented. Your getting over 5 to 1 immediate odds to see 5th and you caught an OESD with a FD to go with a low draw. On 6th you made a straight and 7th a low. You were unlucky to lose both ways. Being results oriented, you can switch your 8s with Seat 5's Ah and give him Ad. That way you would have an A high FD and low draw on 4th (No one is folding that). On 5th, you would have your flush A high with a 76 low draw. But fast forward to 7th and you would still lose both sides to a higher flush (AJ high) and outpipped for low (7652A would lose to 7642A).

Obviously, everyone would concur that you played all streets correct (some would differ about 3rd) and you got unlucky to get scooped. In all poker games, you can play every street correct against your opponents ranges and still lose. One opponent here made a flush and the other rivered a better low. It happens and it could happen whether you are ahead in equity or priced in to call against their ranges. I wouldn't worry about it. I definately don't think that calling 4th is a mistake. BTW, even knowing their exact hands, your equity is still about 33% on 5th 3 ways. With all that dead money it's not even close that calling is mandatory on 5th.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 283q
lsls|5dasts 40.55% (113,336 scoops, 310,341 wins hi, 77 ties hi, 127,497 wins lo, 1,860 ties lo)
7h6h2h8s9h 32.95% (81,982 scoops, 249,871 wins hi, 49 ties hi, 108,867 wins lo, 784 ties lo)
24|6dah9s 26.51% (19,155 scoops, 39,700 wins hi, 50 ties hi, 269,529 wins lo, 2,496 ties lo)

and your priced in on 4th as well @ 27% equity.

ProPokerTools Stud Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 283q
lsls|5das 36.49% (78,858 scoops, 272,179 wins hi, 262 ties hi, 144,386 wins lo, 3,349 ties lo)
7h6h2h8s 26.96% (42,234 scoops, 211,225 wins hi, 171 ties hi, 96,569 wins lo, 1,821 ties lo)
24|6dah 36.55% (59,512 scoops, 116,302 wins hi, 155 ties hi, 310,853 wins lo, 4,915 ties lo)

But we don't play against exact hands, we play against ranges and your equity is much higher against their ranges. So no fold on 4th.

Definitely think a jam on 3rd is required. Especially with a guy like seat 5 willing to take those bets to the chin

4th, pot is too big to be folding for sure. Not our best card, but let's see what happens on 5th.

Instinctively I feel like 5th is a raise, but not by a ton. Just don't fold obv. Soooo many outs on 6th that I know all don't count as full outs, but there's no shot I'm folding there. And I definitely like just calling 7th and going for the overcall

If there was another dead on 3rd, just call, but complete here is fine.

Jam 5th, you might clear out Seat5 and then be able to take a free card on 6th.

RAISE 6th! Seat2 most certainly has the other Ace in the hole now that he bets out into Seat5-open-AA! He feels: you are on the low draw, and he has the best pair of Aces, of course he is going to bet.