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Table 'Polyhymnia II' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: corduba ($17.95 in chips)
Seat 4: bulletsaa7 ($2.50 in chips)
Seat 5: isma_007260 ($9.55 in chips)
Seat 6: dayoldhater ($10 in chips)
corduba: posts small blind $0.10
bulletsaa7: posts big blind $0.25
*** DEALING HANDS ***
Dealt to dayoldhater [2d 8d Qd 6d Jc]
isma_007260: folds
dayoldhater: raises $0.25 to $0.50
corduba: calls $0.40
bulletsaa7: calls $0.25
*** FIRST DRAW ***
corduba: discards 2 cards
bulletsaa7: discards 2 cards
dayoldhater: discards 2 cards [Qd Jc]
Dealt to dayoldhater [2d 8d 6d] [8h Qc]
corduba: bets $0.25
bulletsaa7: calls $0.25
dayoldhater: calls $0.25
*** SECOND DRAW ***
corduba: discards 1 card
bulletsaa7: discards 2 cards
dayoldhater: discards 2 cards [8d Qc]
Dealt to dayoldhater [2d 6d 8h] [3d 7c]
corduba: checks
bulletsaa7: checks
dayoldhater: bets $0.50
corduba: raises $0.50 to $1
bulletsaa7: folds
dayoldhater: vomits and ???

Is this a fold now, draw to the 86 perfect, or hold on for dear life?

Since I'm not typically playing the same villains on a regular basis I would like opinions vs a complete unknown.

I only really see fish do this when they have no fear of you drawing out on them, which usually means a strong 7.

If he is doing this with a wide enough range that you can call & break the 87 and draw at the 7632 you should just pat the 87 and call down; given I don't think you have enough equity versus a typical fishes "monster range", you should just fold.

Against complete unknowns at this level, I call & pat and call a river bet. yes this can be a monster, but I think this can also be something goofy like a T that our opponent wasn't sure how to play after the 2nd draw and now thinks raising to fold out the 3rd opponent might be good. Note that our hand is actually underrepresented considering we drew 2.

Finally, with a hand like 87632, you would drop the 8 and draw to 7632x. Dropping the 7 to draw at 8632 doesn't make a lot of sense. Catching a 5 or 4 would give you 76532 vs 86532 and 76432 vs 86432. If this last part is unclear let me know and I'll try to explain it better.

Finally, with a hand like 87632, you would drop the 8 and draw to 7632x. Dropping the 7 to draw at 8632 doesn't make a lot of sense. Catching a 5 or 4 would give you 76532 vs 86532 and 76432 vs 86432. If this last part is unclear let me know and I'll try to explain it better.

Yeah I posted this at the end of a long session. I understand drawing to a 7 is better than an 86 lol. I think I may have gone straight to the 86 because I was drawing to the 8 on the 1st draw, who knows.

I think this is a #1-#5 a huge % of the time and I should either break or fold. With the pot size the 2 decisions are pretty close IMO. Given we probably have ~6 outs most of the time I think I prefer a fold.

I think this is a #1-#5 a huge % of the time and I should either break or fold. With the pot size the 2 decisions are pretty close IMO. Given we probably have ~6 outs most of the time I think I prefer a fold.

If you really think this is true, then folding is better than breaking and its not really that close. Regarding breaking, you are forgetting the times you make your hand, but still lose to a better 7. IE you break and catch a 5 for 76532, but villain has 76432 and you lose. So even those you probably have ~6 outs to make your hand, it'll only be good about 60-65% maybe? So your 6 outs become more like 4 outs making it a fold giving the pots odds.

If you really think this is true, then folding is better than breaking and its not really that close. Regarding breaking, you are forgetting the times you make your hand, but still lose to a better 7.

I actually had the thought of RIO vs #1 and #2 but I thought that was me being pessimistic, glad you had the same thought process, this may be an overlooked consideration in my game.

I don't know what to make of his c/r range since I almost never see this, but I'd probably break it as a default and stop breaking it once I've seen him show up with 9's in similar situations (especially rough 9's, since he'll have more of them!).

I don't know what to make of his c/r range since I almost never see this, but I'd probably break it as a default and stop breaking it once I've seen him show up with 9's in similar situations (especially rough 9's, since he'll have more of them!).

I think this is really bad. I'm pretty sure that we are better folding than drawing if we believe we are beaten; I'm pretty sure that if his range is wide enough to "draw" against we should just be standing pat with the 876xx.

Calling & breaking is a dominated strategy; the pot isn't *that* large. We should either fold to the raise, or call, pat and hold on. I'd almost rather call, pat and fold on the river if bet into, to be honest.

His line is odd, as you expect a good 7 to just bet out, hoping for someone to raise an 8 or 9 (or maybe a T or J), allowing him to 3-bet. I suspect his range here is polarized between the nuts, and a snow. If he really has a nr.1, breaking your hand is pointless as you can never draw out.

Calling & breaking is a dominated strategy; the pot isn't *that* large.

Calling and breaking is a dominated strategy given how villains' distribution looks like, not because the pot isn't that big.

The question then becomes whether or not to call down. Is he bluffing often enough here? You need to call down 2bb to win 8.5bb, so you need to be good here almost 20%. I would be inclined to call down here, as his line is weird for good made hands.

Folding the river is an option here, but I think if villain is pulling off some kind of weird snow, he will certainly bet the river too.

!?

Wow I'd never ever break or fold here against random. This is a spazz so often, if it's the nuts note it and act accordingly later. So often this is like T9763 or some random BS that suddenly noticed he could get the third player out if he raises after you bet, then when you pat behind he'll desperately fire the river.

Sure it's not like we're overly excited about our hand here but we're good way too often to fold here.

Also if we fold here we have no idea what he had, imo the information about what someone is doing here is worth a lot and will make us make much better decisions in the future.

Makes a big difference that he's raising when going into the 3rd guy imho, since its less likely to be a monster. if it was HU i'd be more inclined to think he's very strong

Calling and breaking is a dominated strategy given how villains' distribution looks like, not because the pot isn't that big.

It has everything to do with pot size; you are right that his range is also a factor.

If the pot is large enough and we figure he has a 7 almost always (or at least always has us beat), at some larger pot size we are correct to call and break (even if we are drawing dead some fraction of the time). This pot is not large enough to do this.

If we figure his range is wide enough that we can call down because we have some immediate equity with our pat hand then, again, it has everything to do with the size of the pot. We are either getting correct odds to call down, or we aren't, even if we know we beat a slim fraction of his value hands. Again, this pot is probably not large enough for this to be true.

Given this particular hand there is no pot size at which it is correct to say "we are probably ahead sometimes, but we will make more money if we break our hand" for any continuous distribution of villain hands. However, there is one situation where the "call and break" line may have some merit - if we expected that villains range is made up of hands that beat us plus a large number of paired/bluffing hands. In this scenario, a call-and-break argument has some merit. The argument would then go, "given the large number of bluffs in his range, we have enough immediate equity to call down, but given we can still bluff-catch with A hi/pair 2s when we draw, we can improve our equity against his range if we catch good."

Villain checkraises a card ahead of everyone...LOL. Please pat behind and pay off, this is such a fishy line he takes. Totally agree with Soep.

It has everything to do with pot size; you are right that his range is also a factor.

Yes, you are right. Although if his range is 75432 and hands worse than our hand, then pot size is irrelevant. Breaking only becomes an option when villain's range consist of mostly hands that are better than our hand, like a range that consists of all 86 hands and better. Once you add enough worse 87's and 9's, the value of patting and calling down becomes so big that breaking becomes a mistake. And as the pot becomes bigger, we should be more inclined to pat and call down.

Look at it this way, assume the pot is 1000000 bets. And villain has a range consisting of all 9's and better. Would you really break your 87, or would you call down 2 bets (to win 1000000 bets) in case he has a 9? I don't think there is any pot size here where breaking becomes an option.

But if we all agree villain's line is so fishy, why not call, let him pat, and raise him on the river? Will he call often enough with worse hands? I think we can even raise-fold the river.

Yes, you are right. Although if his range is 75432 and hands worse than our hand, then pot size is irrelevant. Breaking only becomes an option when villain's range consist of mostly hands that are better than our hand, like a range that consists of all 86 hands and better. Once you add enough worse 87's and 9's, the value of patting and calling down becomes so big that breaking becomes a mistake. And as the pot becomes bigger, we should be more inclined to pat and call down.

We are agreeing, but saying things in different ways. I think most people should get the point now though

If you still don't get what we are on about, I would encourage anyone to do the pen&paper calculation with suitable estimations so that they understand this as it is kind of important - especially once you get to the higher "not-breaking-my-9s" limits.