In the series premier, sthief09 discusses raising ranges, 3-bet ranges, and attempts to determine a more systematic approach to 4-betting.
sthief09 shows us how to develop various optimal game strategies including 3-betting and 4-betting at mid-stakes 6max NLHE, using PokerStove to break down hand ranges and analyze HEM stats.
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At around the 39 minute mark, we apply it to their 5betting range to reduce 3.8% of hands down to 3.3% of hands, but if our data says that they 3-bet 11% of the time, then we need to be lowering that number by AT LEAST 0.5% for our calculations. I say at least because we already know that 0.5% of hands he'd 3bet are out, but there may be others such as JTs for example that he would have raised in that spot that are now less likely. (arbitrarily) eliminating another 0.5% from the 'bluff' side of their 3bet range, we get 3.3/10 = 33% push or 67% fold. Still profitable, but for closer situations, applying card elimination to 5bet ranges but not to 3bet ranges may turn a marginal situation around (although I guess at that point, it's so close that metagame considerations may be enough to negate it).
that's a very interesting point and you're absolutely right. the card removal works both ways. i think it's actually probably pretty significant. i'll try to look into that more in the next few days
ok i ran some quick numbers. the 11% range i used was AA-99,44-22,AK-AJ,ATs,KQ-KJ,J8s,75s. that's 11.0% of all hands if we have blank cards. if we have KJo, that works out to 9.9%. but then again, that % in HEM is assuming someone already raised, which often means high cards have already been removed. so that might mitigate this factor a bit. but overall you're right, we should be conservative with our numbers because of this.
Nice job you did good. I wonder why you don't charge more money for this stuff. If we min 4 bet AK in position preflop and get called, do you cbet Q72 rainbow flops with air and shove most turns? Or do you mostly just check behind and fold the turn unimproved? Do you adjust your line depending on villians in this spot and what adjustments do you make?
Here is a problem for you Prof Plotkin that might be interesting...
Our Hero made an error calling pre flop and has got himself into a situation. Should we check behind? or make a move?
Wow...awesome video. Really.....I just watched it ones and I will have to watch a couple of times more before everything falls in its place but great job. I think this is the kind of video you will love or hate. In my opinion it is crucial to have a feeling for the math to be able to play optimal.
Keep them coming!
Stop apologozing for the stuff that makes the video good #/%&)(#/T%(#/!
I have the 1.06.02 version but I don't have all the stats that you have
Under the player preference HUD options (or whatever it is called), you have to set it to display "DEFAULT Main Popup". It is probably set to something else..
Fantastic video Josh.
Have been thinking about this a lot lately and will be interested to hear your thoughts on calling 3bets also.
I would be happy to send you my 200NL hands if you are interested in crunching the numbers. I have aprrox 100k hands so just let me know.