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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by Crackmonkey (Mid Stakes)

I completely know what you mean about convincing yourself into making river calls. I play much lower than this but it made me think of a hand I had this week. I was playing a 70/3 type player:

Merge - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $3.56
BTN: $9.74
SB: $13.71
BB: $9.39
Hero (UTG): $11.66

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has J J

Hero raises to $0.30, fold, BTN calls $0.30, fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95, 3 players) J 2 A
BB checks, Hero bets $0.71, BTN calls $0.71, fold

Turn: ($2.37, 2 players) Q
Hero bets $1.97, BTN calls $1.97

River: ($6.31, 2 players) K
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.76 and is all-in, Hero calls $6.76

I got to thinking that what hands would villain show up at the river and would shove. At the time I only suspected that AT got there. (of the hands that beat me, maybe JT some of the time) I called the river under the assumption that villain could also have some two P's, even the premium ones as he has a low PFR. I thought those combos would outnumber the T's that got there and clicked call.

Maybe I should've made a blocking bet but then again its probably still getting shoved w/ his river range. Anyway I definitely talked myself out of folding in an ugly spot.

Blocking bet isn't a bad choice. You know he's never raising you without the straight. This type of player isn't going to be betting worse on the river for value and can't really have pure air, so you definitely need to find a fold. Trust that initial instinct, as I'm sure your original gut feeling was to fold.

A lot of really good comments here and I'm going to respond to all of them the best I can. I'm at work now so it might be a little slow.

Bottom right: if he checked, would you consider turning your 88 into a bluff here?

If he barrels twice then checks that river, I'm assuming he has no less than an overpair, so I don't expect that 88 would hold at showdown very often. He probably wouldn't expect me to turn a hand like this into a bluff, and it's almost impossible for me to have air here, so I think turning 88 into a bluff is a very good play. If he check/calls the river with a hand like JJ, at least we know not to try to bluff him in the future because he's willing to make stubborn calls.

Really interesting discussion on the "gut feeling" decisions. I think I can add some interesting complement.

Had this discussion with few poker friends already few weeks ago. Should we take decisions based on gut feeling only? How should we trust our instincts while playing....

Found a very interesting answer to that question in "The mental game of poker". In short (hope I'll explain it properly!), when you master something very well, it ends up being part of your unconscious competences. You master some concepts or some spots so well that at some point, they becomes like second nature, you don't need to think about them or make all the logical thinking to find the good answer. So, your gut feeling is probably based on this second nature when your instincts kind of tell you what is the correct action in a given situation. Personnaly, I am almost sure now, that when I try to find reasons to go against my gut feeling, I probably take the wrong decision a lot more than 50% of the time!

I think this makes a lot of sense. Once you see the same type of situation hundreds or thousands of times, it becomes etched in your brain to expect to see a certain outcome the majority of the time. The key is to be honest with yourself. If you're looking for reasons to go against what your initial thought was, why are you doing it? If you're thinking about things like, "If I win this pot I'll be back to even for the session", you're probably leading yourself down the wrong path.

Would also not cbet the AQ there.
But what if it was HU vs the fish IP ?
And what if it was oop vs the reg ?

I would cbet v the fish. I still have decent equity with 2 over cards and his preflop range is pretty wide.

It's hard to tell if I can classify the other guy as a reg at this point. I don't have many hands, and if 24/16 is his true vpip/pfr, he's not your typical reg. Against him, I'd take a stab at the flop and barrel good turn cards.

Why diddnt you consider opening 89s to play a hand vs the fish in the BB, btn diddnt seem to be 3beting too too much.
Also on 16.38 same spot on that table with 56s you folded CO

At this particular time, I had 68s, not 89s. I probably would have opened 89s, but 68s is a bit too weak.

56s is also a little too weak for me. I'm going to end up in quite a few spots where I have to try to barrel BTN with 6 high and I don't have a good enough read on him to know how successful that is going to be.

The KQ hand, Your right hes not opening allot in MP but i think with the 2 fish behind, he should open wider, also when they come allong KQ will prob play pretty well MW with the fish involved, so i would have called pre. Getting the fish in there and play QT,QJ,KT,KJ and weaker is so good for you there, and that will overcome the times you lose when the reg has AK,AQ, you just gotta be a little more carefull vs him prob folding some more turns/rvrs when he barrels strong.

Yea I probably should have called given I would have position on him plus either of the blinds if they came along. I don't disagree with anything you've said here.

You dont consider calling there with 9Ts vs the looser fish ?
Are there regs just gonna squeeze too much when you flat, maybe 3bet the fish yourself then to iso him ?

SCs are pretty overrated in my mind. Most of the time you don't flop a thing, or you flop a weak top or middle pair and lose money with it. The raiser also only had about 60 BBs to start with, so that dramatically hurts my implied odds. If I 3 bet him and he calls, there's not really enough money behind for me to try to move him off his hand and it puts the pressure on me to actually make a hand since I only have T high.

What do you think about betting turn and river in that spot with QT when he checks back Axx.
I think he most likely has midpair or a weak ace in that spot, you have a gutshot and maybe 1 or 2 overs vs his midpair. I guess its player dependent...

When a guy who is cbetting 74% checks back a very dry A high flop like that, I'm always wary of that. A lot of times they'll be checking back a weak A and looking to get value on the turn and river. If he does have a weak A, I'm not going to get him to fold it.

With the 77 you say its too big of a raise. I dont agree its only 5.5bb and it looks like the fishes will come along nicely creating a big pot to spike your set on. So i think your odds are enough there, am i wrong ? (im not a math guy)

I'm out of position against basically everyone and there's no guarantee I win anything even if I do hit a set. It's especially more difficult to extract value when you are out of position. There's also no guarantee the weaker players come along. I don't think the times you hit a set make up for the times you call, miss, and just have to give up.

I think that not calling a 3 bet IP w/ 88 is pretty nitty . What was your thought process there ?

26:20 - AQ hand you said it's an obvious 3bet. Most of the time I just call without a read or in your case if a reg folds 63% to 3bet. What is your reasoning and your plan if he 4bets?

Edit: Also I apologise for not putting the time link correctly but I don't know how to do it.

33:20 - Bottom left table. What is the bottom of your calling/shoving range on the flop?

Table 2, folding 22 in the SB vs a reg's BTN min-raise and a non-full-stacked fishy looking dude in the BB. What, if any, would be a good flatting range in this situation, and how about a 3bet range? I play 50nl and I'm currently looking to improve my SB vs BTN play, so any advice would be great. Thanks!

This was more of a villain-dependent spot for me here. In this case, I know BTN is a good player, so I'm not really wanting to play much out of position against him in general. If I'm flatting 22 here, I'm only continuing if I hit a set, and given how wide ranges are here, I can't even realistically expect to make a whole lot when I do.

How you choose to construct your ranges SB v BTN here is very dependent on what type of player BTN is. Since villain here is someone I think plays a very solid game, I'm really only looking to 3 bet strong value hands. In terms of flatting, I will mix in flats with stronger Ax hands like AT, AJ, or hands like KQ and maybe even 99 or TT. By doing this, I can help offset my position disadvantage by playing hands that I expect are ahead of his range.

You start a good discussion here about 3bet bluffing as a preflop plan vs a guy who is opening a ton and folding a ton to 3bets, and just giving up if it doesn't work. If your 3bet with T9o gets flatted, are there any boards you think would be good to cbet, or would you just give up? For example, how about the classic cbet boards like A72r or K82r, or how about if you flop an open-ender, like on a J83r flop? Thanks!

For sure I'll be continuing postflop with hands that flop a lot of equity, such as the open-ender you gave as an example. On dry A or K high boards, I'm probably just giving up. Since villain is folding so much, his range for actually calling my 3 bet is going to be pretty strong, and is going to include a lot of Ax and Kx hands, with some pocket pairs mixed in of course. I think it's just better to give up and preserve the money you're making preflop, rather than play guessing games out of position. The way I look at is if villain is willing to fold so many hands to a preflop 3 bet, he's probably not very willing to fold the hands he actually does decide to play.