Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Ok, so villain in this pot is sort of tagish, but not overly predictable or nitty. 22/18, 3bet: 9. F3bet: 65. Fcbet F/T: 55/31. WtSD: 26. over 4000 hands. No relevant reads, unfortunenatly.

Preflop I 3bet for value, would sometimes flat with an agro squeezer in the blinds. It is hard to calculate an exact calling range for villain in that spot, since I think people change their minds a lot as to what hands can be called utg vs late pos 3bet profitably. Probably JJ-88 close to a 100%, lower pairs sometimes, AQ sometimes(4bet folds sometimes), AK sometime (4bet calls sometimes), AA-QQ sometimes, allthough I think most people 4bet that most of the time. And ocassionally some worse suited Broadways/ suited connectors)
Thoughts?

Flop I obviasly cbet for value. I think he c/c 99/88/TT/JJ/QQ/KK/AA, AK/AQ. Sometimes I do get looked up by 77 - 55. JTs, QJs, if that called pre, will c/c here more often thatn not too, but may c/r.

Turn is sort of a gross card. Given that range, do we pot control turn? If we bet, call off a jam? It def. seems thin, since some opponents fold almost everything we beat but JJ, and mmaybe 77 (flop). On the other hand villain could have AQ/AJ and get frisky with that, or JTs.

River pairs the T, now JT/AT beats us, if he ever has that. I do think, villain would slowplay a lot here, but sometimes would maybe jam turn with a set, to not lose value. So discount some. The key question I feel, is how villain will react with the bottom of his range. Will he think, the board is kind of scary, and I have the bottom of my range, thus I fold, Or is it such a gross board, that my perceifed value range is soo narrow, that villain will think I bluff here a lot? I checked back this sort of spot regularily in the past, but noticed that I do get c/c ed by bad bluffcatchers sometimes lately. So I decided, better bet too thinly, than not thinly enough. Thoughts?

Poker Stars $2.50/$5 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1847059
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $793.10
SB: $500.00
BB: $723.55
UTG: $542.22
MP: $250.00
CO: $668.11

Pre Flop: ($7.50) Hero is BTN with Q Q
UTG raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $45, 2 folds, UTG calls $30

Flop: ($97.50) 8 9 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $49.24, UTG calls $49.24

Turn: ($195.98) T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $121.70, UTG calls $121.70

River: ($439.38) T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $577.16 all in

UTG v BTN I think it's too thin, esp when he's not peeling a lot pre.

turn might be a x and x/f, bc we're only basically trying to get value from JTs..

Turn & River I fail to see worst calling except a very stubborn JJ and can see only weak tight folding better... with WtSD 26 can't definately see this Op folding better.

Preflop
With the 4k hand sample you should use:
- Raise 1st from EP - I can guess it is ~~ 15% for this kind of player
- Fold to 3b from EP - say it is 70%, so if he doesn't fold he continues with 4.5% range

I guess most of this range 4b, but I don't know. I just show you the way I estimate Villain's range.


Flop
Looks like you are very unsure what his range is. Mostly 88-JJ, some AQ, some AK, maybe QQ and occasional KK+. Let's stove it.

Board: 8c 9d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.987% 62.22% 01.77% 18478 526.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 36.013% 34.24% 01.77% 10170 526.00 { AhAs, KcKd, QQ-88, 7d7h, AQs+, AdQs, AhQs }

Yep, bet for fat value.

Turn
AQo, AKo will fold now.

Board: 8c 9d 4s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.636% 41.14% 02.50% 362 22.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 56.364% 53.86% 02.50% 474 22.00 { AhAs, KcKd, QQ-88, 7d7h, AdKd }

Worse hands won't fold and you are smoked against the rest. Check behind.

River
Assuming he calls with JJ and QQ on the river:

Board: 8c 9d 4s Td Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.625% 37.50% 03.13% 6 0.50 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 59.375% 56.25% 03.13% 9 0.50 { AhAs, KcKd, QQ-88 }

There is no value in betting. Check behind.


Mistakes in this hand:
- very general range judgement
- your hand wasn't strong enough to build such a huge pot with
- there were no reads that could help us estimate his range and/or hero calling tendencies

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http://notepixel.com/files/funzug/imgs/funnypics/no_idea_doing_05.jpg

While I do agree that this bet was too thin, I would say most of the time betting thiner for value than your "instinct" is telling you, is good. Took it too far this hand.

Also, his open EP is 19%, and his fold to 3bet 65, but only 58 from EP. So his range is wider than you think. And correct me if I am wrong, but I am pretty sure, that merging ranges and beting very thin is good if you are playing against tough oponents. I would rather bet too thin then not thin enough. Often times in a simoular spot I god called by the absolute bottom of villainsange, because he assumed that I would not vbet overpairs on a bad river and I would be more bluff heavy because of that

I seriously doubt there's any value in betting the turn there.

While I do agree that this bet was too thin, I would say most of the time betting thiner for value than your "instinct" is telling you, is good. Took it too far this hand.

Also, his open EP is 19%, and his fold to 3bet 65, but only 58 from EP. So his range is wider than you think. And correct me if I am wrong, but I am pretty sure, that merging ranges and beting very thin is good if you are playing against tough oponents. I would rather bet too thin then not thin enough. Often times in a simoular spot I god called by the absolute bottom of villainsange, because he assumed that I would not vbet overpairs on a bad river and I would be more bluff heavy because of that

I dont think you should have a betting range on the turn.

I dont think you should have a betting range on the turn.

Odd question, does that make the turn a good card to lead into the PFR as the villain or would you always check the turn and look for a point of honesty vs the PFR? I was debating what to do with AK, AQ, AJs here as villain, checking seems logical because we're beating his air with AK and we're bluff catching and "thin value" catching the river on an A or K when his blockers river their pair, but considering AQ and AJ are behind AK when the villain checks thru', we can only river half as many blockers with just the A and we have a gut shot and straight draw we probably can't call with even if the villain does bet then leading with AQo, AJs seems to have some merrits.

Odd question, does that make the turn a good card to lead into the PFR as the villain or would you always check the turn and look for a point of honesty vs the PFR? I was debating what to do with AK, AQ, AJs here as villain, checking seems logical because we're beating his air with AK and we're bluff catching and "thin value" catching the river on an A or K when his blockers river their pair, but considering AQ and AJ are behind AK when the villain checks thru', we can only river half as many blockers with just the A and we have a gut shot and straight draw we probably can't call with even if the villain does bet then leading with AQo, AJs seems to have some merrits.

Good point. But since we call a 3bet oop with those holdings we assume villains 3bet range is air heavy. (Otherwise we would not call oop especially given positions) In that case, isn't it better to just x/c and let villain barrel with his air as well? If we lead the turn we elimate this possibility and villain will probably fold all hands that we beat anyway and only call or raise with better. To protect ourself versus KQ or Ax doesn't seem necesary since those have very little equity versus us.

Odd question, does that make the turn a good card to lead into the PFR as the villain or would you always check the turn and look for a point of honesty vs the PFR? I was debating what to do with AK, AQ, AJs here as villain, checking seems logical because we're beating his air with AK and we're bluff catching and "thin value" catching the river on an A or K when his blockers river their pair, but considering AQ and AJ are behind AK when the villain checks thru', we can only river half as many blockers with just the A and we have a gut shot and straight draw we probably can't call with even if the villain does bet then leading with AQo, AJs seems to have some merrits.

If we lead with the entire range XC range then it is fine.

Good point. But since we call a 3bet oop with those holdings we assume villains 3bet range is air heavy. (Otherwise we would not call oop especially given positions) In that case, isn't it better to just x/c and let villain barrel with his air as well? If we lead the turn we elimate this possibility and villain will probably fold all hands that we beat anyway and only call or raise with better. To protect ourself versus KQ or Ax doesn't seem necesary since those have very little equity versus us.

After we raise/call a 3bet OOP and check/call a flop OOP from UTG our perceived range is so strong and that turn card is so bad that the opponent probably isn't ever double barreling us with air, so if we know that he's always going to check-back the turn with air that beats or ties our air i.e. his AK beats our AQo, AJs and draws that threaten us i.e AJo, KQo, KJs etc. then we really have no reason to give him an equity free roll while we're holding AQo, AJs because we do fold better hands by betting, we do fold relevant equity shares by betting ane we can't really check/call against with either AQo or AJs but if we lead with them we get a % equity return on our bluff because we can river a straight, or maybe an Ace, when he calls our turn bet with AA-QQ.

I just feel like turning AQo, AJs into a bluff here is one of those counter intuitive plays where you have to realize your opponent's betting patterns and changes in the board texture and disregard your showdown value in favor of taking a bluffing line when it presents itself.

@Oliver, thanks.

I just feel like turning AQo, AJs into a bluff here is one of those counter intuitive plays where you have to realize your opponent's betting patterns and changes in the board texture and disregard your showdown value in favor of taking a bluffing line when it presents itself.

Yeah. Also I think this play is far less counter-intuitive after you've played a lot of plo.

Yeah. Also I think this play is far less counter-intuitive after you've played a lot of plo.

Well, in PLO it makes sense because showdown value isn't as valuable as it is in NL where Ace high means something, I just think we have to disregard Ace high as showdown value because our villain can't value bet us thinly or bluff us easily here and thus he's checking behind a number of hands who have significantly higher showdown value than ours and we need to bet to fold better hands with blockers and redraws to increase our fold and pot equity.

It also occurred to me that if we did check the turn here and our villain did check behind, then we should consider turning our hand into an overbet shove on the river as well.

Don't you think some players might check the turn behind with QQ+ (I've seen it pretty often. looks like players are afraid to get x/r on the turn) and snapcall you on the river when you take this line? Also when we overbet on the river villain has to be good around 40% of the time to make a river call break-even or better. We never make a hand that beats overpairs more then 60% of the time on the river with our gutshots, straightdraws and overcards. And if we are againt AQ/AK its not a great idea to overbet when we hit an ace, only when we hit a straight. So how can this line be profitable? Assuming buttons 3bet range versus utg is pretty strong and doesn't contain many air he checks behind on the turn. What am I missing?
Thanks!

Depends on how villain perceives our calling range, if he gives us credit for having KK+, TT then QQ+ is going to have to consider whether or not it should fold - I think - altho' it does depend on the river card to an extent. Disregarding the Q, J or 7 we can represent back door diamonds as well, and I'd never bet on the Ace for obvious reasons (I've rivered a bluff catcher on a card he is either going to value bet thinly or bluff on). I was deciding whether or not we could get away with overbet shoving on a blank, and it really depends on how many value combos he asigns us plus his ability to discern whether or not we're capable of turning Ax into a bluff on the river.

Both of our ranges are strong, but in theory our range is stronger.