Ok, so villain in this pot is sort of tagish, but not overly predictable or nitty. 22/18, 3bet: 9. F3bet: 65. Fcbet F/T: 55/31. WtSD: 26. over 4000 hands. No relevant reads, unfortunenatly.
Preflop I 3bet for value, would sometimes flat with an agro squeezer in the blinds. It is hard to calculate an exact calling range for villain in that spot, since I think people change their minds a lot as to what hands can be called utg vs late pos 3bet profitably. Probably JJ-88 close to a 100%, lower pairs sometimes, AQ sometimes(4bet folds sometimes), AK sometime (4bet calls sometimes), AA-QQ sometimes, allthough I think most people 4bet that most of the time. And ocassionally some worse suited Broadways/ suited connectors)
Flop I obviasly cbet for value. I think he c/c 99/88/TT/JJ/QQ/KK/AA, AK/AQ. Sometimes I do get looked up by 77 - 55. JTs, QJs, if that called pre, will c/c here more often thatn not too, but may c/r.
Turn is sort of a gross card. Given that range, do we pot control turn? If we bet, call off a jam? It def. seems thin, since some opponents fold almost everything we beat but JJ, and mmaybe 77 (flop). On the other hand villain could have AQ/AJ and get frisky with that, or JTs.
River pairs the T, now JT/AT beats us, if he ever has that. I do think, villain would slowplay a lot here, but sometimes would maybe jam turn with a set, to not lose value. So discount some. The key question I feel, is how villain will react with the bottom of his range. Will he think, the board is kind of scary, and I have the bottom of my range, thus I fold, Or is it such a gross board, that my perceifed value range is soo narrow, that villain will think I bluff here a lot? I checked back this sort of spot regularily in the past, but noticed that I do get c/c ed by bad bluffcatchers sometimes lately. So I decided, better bet too thinly, than not thinly enough. Thoughts?
Poker Stars $2.50/$5 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1847059
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
Hero (BTN): $793.10
Pre Flop: ($7.50) Hero is BTN with Q Q
UTG raises to $15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $45, 2 folds, UTG calls $30
Flop: ($97.50) 8 9 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $49.24, UTG calls $49.24
Turn: ($195.98) T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $121.70, UTG calls $121.70
River: ($439.38) T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $577.16 all in