Hi, I renewed my subscription here just to check out your latest content, it's awesome!
I have one question regarding decision making, variable counts in poker, risk vs reward and whether or not that decision is +/- EV.
You 3bet that AQ vs UTG open - it's very simple to understand and it's a one-step plan.
How do you view low EV, high risk multi-street plans that can be very -EV if you have one of your variables wrong (out of many that were involved in the hand) - basically, where your lack of information can induce big mistakes from yourself.
I find that it's very easy to make decisions based on math when the pot is very small and opponents ranges are widest, but whenever I narrow my own range and my opponents range (big pots), I end up spewing, because my assumptions about my opponents range and his reaction to my actions was wrong to begin with (after we got to turn or river). At least on small stakes, turn and river play should be fairly honest in my experience so I like to draw the line that I don't cross on the flop and very rarely deviate from that unless I have good reads on my opponents.
I have another theroy. To sum it up it goes basically like this - if you steal pre flop and on the flop where you are automatically +EV in a vacuum and after that always shut down, never give anything away unless you are at big equity advantage (PE and FE combined) & your opponents steal from you less than you steal from them, you basically end up freerolling with the top of your range and exploit the fact that they put too much money in the pot for no reason. When faced with agression you don't fight for "splits" or "0EV", you just fold and lose nothing, you only fight when you are offering your opponents some kind of reverse implied odds, where he only wins small pots and ALWAYS loses when the pots get big. Does this make sense and should I follow this philosophy?
Lack of information should never lead to a "Big" mistake. We are not only playing vs villain's range but also playing our own range. For example, if we bluff into a villain who only has the nuts then as long as our bluffing frequency is not too high (proper range construction) then mistake will not be that big since the frequency of it happening is fairly low.
Street by street EV is almost pointless because the hand doesn't end on 1 particular street there's always the possibility of the hand to continue. We only care about the EV of our line. So stealing is auto + EV or not on the flop is irrelevant unless villain folds often enough preflop and we can x/f every flop still make profit.
We should always look for the highest EV play. Folding is 0EV so if there's something that's higher EV we should do that instead of folding. Only win small pots is fine as long as we don't lose any huge ones, this is the typical example vs nits. No one can force you to play a huge pot, you are allowed to click fold whenever you want. Reason like I have to call here because <insert reason here> or when I bet the turn, I have to bet the river because <insert reason here> are all just excuse for poor postflop play.