Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

haha, thanks

that concept applies when you bet and expect worse hands to call (draws) and better made hands to fold. it can also apply three-way where you expect the same to occur due to differences between your two opponents

The problem is two fold, our range is transparent and the villains range is not so it's easier for the villain to determine what his value betting and bluffing frequency should be vs our capped range than it is for us to determine what our bluff catching frequency should be, and considering the only reason we've checked the flop and check/called the turn is because of our back door draw we've entered an unorthodox line where we would need reads i.e. bet sizing, bet when checked to %, checks behind air for false equity protection, can't value bet thinly etc. to have any idea of what to do and it's our first hand.

It's really easy to say "your reasoning is wrong, Poker is about EV" but the problem is there's no way to even guesstimate what our EV is here because we haven't restricted his range by betting and he can value bet Kx with impunity if he wants.

I also extremely disagree with the notion of not betting QQ here because we're turning it into a bluff and that by checking we plan on continuing to the turn with QQ vs. a bet, everybody says stuff like this but nobody ever balances it with AAA, or Ax or Kxcc fwiw, so you're just literally turning your hand face-up for your opponent to barrel you off of it. Range merging is a really big deal because you can't simultaneously value bet enough and protect your check/call or check behind range at the same time and if you start these non-standard lines with a "QQ" type hand instead of the bottom of your value betting range then you're just always going to be put to the test by a good opponent when you're guaranteed to be at the bottom of your range in his mind (which is why I think sand bagging with AAA here is pretty awesome on the flop if you have the discipline to do it)

let's not get carried away here. we're talking about a 75bb fish who openlimped the button. if you're worried about getting owned by him you need to work harder.

we've restricted his range by raising. every action narrows his range. we'd still prefer those that maximize ev. if we need to trade ev for info when we could have inferred better, then we need to work on handreading v fish. you cannot say 'we have no idea what he has here.' that is like saying 'we have no idea what tag X's range on the river is' simply because we have never played a river versus this tag before. the same process you use to think about the tag's range you use for the fish's.

again, think about how many hands this guy has that are not Ax or Kx. it doesn't matter if he can bet Kx "with impunity" if he bluffs too often for these valuebets. fish limp/call crap like T9o and stuff. we have these hands basically drawing dead. the number of Ax and Kx hands will be restricted somewhat given his limp, too. you don't need to balance this with AAA or even Ax.

if i thought the avg fish would bluff too often i would check Ax here, too. you might try it - you'll feel more confident c/c QQ and playing a turn or river once you see the kind of crap they barrel with.

it's very easy to 'see' Ax or Kx here, but it's very hard to name the particular combos he has that bluff. nevermind, though - you don't need to. all you need to do know is some idea of how wide his limping range is, what % is >QQ on the flop and then you can calculate how often he needs to bluff with air if he can somehow play perfectly with his value hands.

1) If the fish is a loose-passive calling station than raising pre-flop isn't going to restrict his range at all, because he's going to limp call our raise pre-flop with 100% of the hands he wants to play. It's not like post-flop where the fish will say, "I didn't flop anything" and fold to a Cbet, it's "he raised, if I call I can see a flop" so this being the first hand we've played with the fish we can't presume our opening raise had any effect on his range.

2) I understand what you're saying about playing exploitatively by depolarizing your Cbetting range with QQ OOP vs a loose-passive calling station because he isn't ~likely~ to put our range under pressure, but in all honesty are you prepared to check/call QQ three strets vs bet, bet, bet against an unkown fish?

3) I'm not disagreeing that the river call may or may not have merrit based on the amount of air in the fish's range, but if the fish does have air in his range then why did he check the flop? Would a fish check behind air in order to represent pot-controlled hands he could delay bet the turn with?

4) I'm not worried about getting outplayed by a 75bb fish, however, it doesn't matter if he is a 75bb fish because this call is literally a gross proposition against any unknown opponent and I don't think EV or bet sizing has anymore to do with it than naked range and no reads does.

1) i agree, it restricts his range very little, particularly relative to a postflop bet/raise
2) no, and you don't need to be ready to c/c 3x. most fish aren't going to do that. for practice, like i said, c/c Ax here sometime and see.
3) i'd not call the river. i've said that already and also above (2). as i've said, even if he bets a ton of hands, he probably won't do so 3x. he probably won't do so 2x, actually.
4) folding the river - agree that this is a gross spot otr

Limp calling KK+AKs from the button is not common to me. Seems like most new players over value AK (I know I did). I may be suffering from a little confirmation bias because I don't see this line happen often enough to give villain any credit. I do see folks open raise AK and flat to 3 bet often. After this pre flop action I could only assume I am up against an undefined range. So I have a hand QQ vs. a really fishy line (this much I do know), so I bet this flop (and would probably bet any flop). If called I proceed with caution, and if raised I would fold. If my flop bet makes him fold a weak suited ace, or KQs, or even better 88, 99, then hooray for me since I could never call any big bets ott, and otr. The concept covered in Terps article does not apply here (although I was quoting from the flop and turn play part of it), but damn it sounded good.

not knowing his tendencies doesn't make any play more correct - it just makes determining the correct play harder. people tend to want to fold when they are unsure, but they easily forget that any action, including folding, can be a mistake.

i tend to call (too much) in these kinds of spots. it's a bit of a crapshoot, in my experience. pot betting fish tend to fall into slowplayers and bluffers almost always. <10% of the time i see something like Ax or any non-flush/air hand. the guys who pot twice are more likely the bluffing types whereas the guys whose bet sizes increase tend to be stronger in these spots or are simply revealing they improved when their bet sizing increases.

so, i'd probably fold

Well best play in this spot is to look at your range and look at GTO.

Fold your bottom x% of your range, call % of your top range. Makes it a lot simplier and harder to get exploitable.

QQ is mid-bottom part, so fold!

Limp calling KK+AKs from the button is not common to me. Seems like most new players over value AK (I know I did). I may be suffering from a little confirmation bias because I don't see this line happen often enough to give villain any credit. I do see folks open raise AK and flat to 3 bet often. After this pre flop action I could only assume I am up against an undefined range. So I have a hand QQ vs. a really fishy line (this much I do know), so I bet this flop (and would probably bet any flop). If called I proceed with caution, and if raised I would fold. If my flop bet makes him fold a weak suited ace, or KQs, or even better 88, 99, then hooray for me since I could never call any big bets ott, and otr. The concept covered in Terps article does not apply here (although I was quoting from the flop and turn play part of it), but damn it sounded good.

first, nice use of your experience. that's not confirmation bias, that's intelligent application of a player pool to predict one player's most likely tendencies.

second, don't bet the flop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

third, he's never folding Ax or Kx to a flop bet, so please forget about that. i guess the rare super weak/tight fish will fold Kx some % of the time, but it's pretty irrelevant in determining the EV of your bet

Thanks all for great discussion! Terp, do you calling bet 2/3p, 1/2p, 1/3p?

i guess i could see sigh calling the smallest sizing. whereas competent players understand that bluffing this sizing is suicidal (and do not exploit this perception as often as they could versus fold-happy players), fish will do it often enough to call. for 4:1 i guess i'd just write a check to the bank of buddy list and pay the man