Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

3bet pot stats : http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/197/asdmh.png
He plays 34/25 with ft3bet 39 and (19) on the CO WTS 28 W$SD 48 after 18k hands (bought database)

No dynamic between us. He knows maybe that Im 3betting a lot like 3 orbits and I 3bet (not him) like 7 times.

Im not really sure about my river bet. Don't you think is to thin? He has to call for 70bb! Do you think that changing pot management in this spot can influence his river calling range?

I prefer to bet 54$ on the flop and then like ~140$ T. His stack to pot ratio would be worse on the river and he would be more likely to bluff catch with 9x,TT,AT, QQ,KK ?


Hand #1
$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1765612
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $725.90
Hero (SB): $696.80
BB: $400.00
UTG: $412.40
CO: $490.50

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is SB with Q A
1 fold, CO raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $40, 1 fold, CO calls $28

Flop: ($84.00) 4 9 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $42, CO calls $42

Turn: ($168.00) A (2 players)
Hero bets $124, CO calls $124

River: ($416.00) J (2 players)
Hero bets $294, CO calls $284.50 all in

We need to know how much he open raises @CO, but given the fact he is defending pretty wide range vs 3bet, we can assume that he have good amount of AXs in his range.

If you expect him to calldown all these AXs, then shoving river is a must, if you expect him to fold these weak AXs you easilly can ch/fold the river, when you know he will check back all his bluffcatchers, same as weak AXs.

^ I really doubt this type of player is ever folding any Ax here.

Given that villain has a super low ft3b stat then we will likely only arrive at flops with (a wide range of) value hands. Meaning our cbets should be bigger against him than other opponents as even the bottom of our cbetting range potentially has SD value when called. So yes, cbet bigger.

If you feel like betting 70bb on the river will make it hard to get called by worse then why not bet 1/3 pot or something and keep his calling range wide?

I think it's not bad as played though.

his f3b is obv pretty low but do you know how much he 4bs? anyway river is prob fine although it's one of the worser rivers..

I prefer to bet 54$ on the flop and then like ~140$ T. His stack to pot ratio would be worse on the river and he would be more likely to bluff catch with 9x,TT,AT, QQ,KK ?

are you assuming villain is terrible? Not aware of math and how pot odds should influence his range construction? It's not like he will float this flop with random Ax hands so the worst A in villain's range that you beat is like AT. On the river you beat no Ax hands in his range except AT.

Villain's range on the river is something like FD, A9-AQ, very few other Axcc, 9x, 77-TT. I really don't see how betting is +EV. On this river you should X/C since villain should turn the bottom of his range into a bluff on this river card(77-TT, 9x and busted FD). Our perceived range on the river when we X is something like TT-KK, weak Ax, Jx and airball.

are you assuming villain is terrible? Not aware of math and how pot odds should influence his range construction? It's not like he will float this flop with random Ax hands so the worst A in villain's range that you beat is like AT. On the river you beat no Ax hands in his range except AT.

No he is not terrible definitely. But I think he can trap QQ-KK there to my ft4bet ~55. Do you think he is ever calling this hand on the river if we change the pot management?

Villain's range on the river is something like FD, A9-AQ, very few other Axcc, 9x, 77-TT. I really don't see how betting is +EV. On this river you should X/C since villain should turn the bottom of his range into a bluff on this river card(77-TT, 9x and busted FD). Our perceived range on the river when we X is something like TT-KK, weak Ax, Jx and airball.

I also think that my river bet is to thin, that's why I posted this hand.
Is it always x/c for you never x/f? Know that it's sick ;]

^
If you feel like betting 70bb on the river will make it hard to get called by worse then why not bet 1/3 pot or something and keep his calling range wide?
I think it's not bad as played though.

But it looks even scarier than just shoving ;]

You have to bet that river, if you aren't betting that river then you don't have any balance in your tripple barreling range for the times you want to represent the ace with diamonds and there's no way you can know AK, AA-TT aren't in his calling range either. If you aren't 3barreling this, then you had better be overbetting the turn for stacks and widening his bluff catching range or just never bother to rep the Ace IMO.

No he is not terrible definitely. But I think he can trap QQ-KK there to my ft4bet ~55. Do you think he is ever calling this hand on the river if we change the pot management?

Then he should know something about range construction and have less combos of stuff that you beat on the river when you bet bigger on the turn. "Trapping"with QQ is terrible and it's terrible as in lower EV to do it with KK unless you spew like crazy post flop or 3bet wider than around 14%. Assuming he has like 25% CO open, you have to be pretty bad to 3bet that wide OOP for slow playing to be higher EV.

I also think that my river bet is to thin, that's why I posted this hand.
Is it always x/c for you never x/f? Know that it's sick ;]

of course not. I'm analyzing based on if villain is competent 400nl player that knows how to hand read and construct ranges. Games are still profitable because lots of players are not that good.

Underbetting works vs not so good villains when we probably have the best hand and probably hard to get called by worse. Vs good villain's it's not a great play in this spot since we rep exactly what we have. When our perceived range(thin value bet) matches our actual range(thin value bet) it's very difficult for someone who can hand read to make a mistake vs our range. The "fish" at high stakes are basically those that play straightforward and rep what they have most of the times. This is why lots successful small stakes players have problems at higher stake.

Isn't a 34/25 with 39% F3b calling you with every suited ace pre? If so, this is not thin at all. Also, if he is calling every suited ace pre, then this river is no worse than any other. (Assuming he almost never folds Ax on the flop, except maybe A6, A7 or A8, although I doubt he would even fold those)

It does seem like you want to be bluffing alot here so this is a mandatory bet IMO if you're ever going to be concerned about balance.

Isn't a 34/25 with 39% F3b calling you with every suited ace pre?

And? preflop range is not the same as river range. It's 100 times more likely villain gets to the turn with A4 than for example A6. Villain has to have a pretty good read on us to be +EV peeling this flop with random Ax hands.

Villain has to have a pretty good read on us to be +EV peeling this flop with random Ax hands.

I agree, but in practice alot of people call either way.

Board: 4d 9d 3c Ah Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.875% 46.88% 00.00% 15 0.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 53.125% 53.13% 00.00% 17 0.00 { 44-33, AJs-A9s, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, A5s-A2s, AJo-ATo }

That's all Ax minus A8s, A7s and A6s without the BDNFD. Close to break-even, but slightly losing, assuming he's never calling down with a 9 and never folding a turned top pair. This obviously then becomes villain dependant, as some people are very likely to call with a 9 here and others aren't. Also, c/c is also villain dependant IMO, because not everybody ships 98 on the river when checked to.

I like all blah's posts but imo this guy is way worse a player than he seems to have in mind.

34/25 w/ ft3b, 39 WTSD 28, W$ 48.. This guy is (if not already, verging on) terrible.

As he said "I'm analyzing based on if villain is competent 400nl player that knows how to hand read and construct ranges."

I really don't think he is this at all given his stats. If it was this guy I would agree with blah and go for a x/c but against villain who I don't believe has any of the above abilities, shove or underbet is my choice.

Preflop
$40-$42 is fine.

Flop
I'd bet about $55, because you are likely to get called by pairs or floats (and this guy does look like a floater).

Turn
Pot should be $194 now, so betting around $120 is fine. I don't like that fact that you are giving away bet sizing tells (1/2 on the flop with a draw and then 3/4 PSB bomb when you hit).

River
Now the pot should be $434 with $275.50 effective stacks. Your best line should be to x/c, because:
- if he somehow floated you twice, he is likely to bluff shove (c-bet and barrel on A and then check OTR looks weak)
- Ax hands are likely to bet for thin value
- busted FDs are also likely to bet