Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Villain is 25/20 reg 3b 8% over a few hundred hands. There's not any history as he just sat down and most the hands I have on him are from a couple months ago or longer. The only relevant read I have is that he's capable of value betting pretty thin. I'm just not really sure what my plan should be on the turn here, I struggle with this spot. It doesn't seem like any of the options are great. I guess my plan was to ch/f since I expect him to bet with his Qx and better and check behind a lot of his PP's. The river kinda confused me since he checks back turn and then bets a K river. I would expect him to bet most of his air and Qx OTT, so I'm not really sure what he's value betting.

Edit: Just realized that the guy behind me was sitting out and I'm actually in the CO. I think I misread positions during this hand. Given that I'm CO, I expect him to have a wider flatting range and also float more often so I should probably barrel turn. How do you guys play this OOP from CO and do you play it differently if you open MP?

Merge Network $2.00/$4.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1762613
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $132.70
UTG: $364.40
Hero (CO): $942.91
BTN: $400.00
SB: $433.50

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is CO with 9 9
1 fold, Hero raises to $12.00, BTN calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30.00) Q 2 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $20.00, BTN calls $20

Turn: ($70.00) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($70.00) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $52.50, Hero folds

Final Pot: $70.00
BTN wins $68.00
(Rake: $2.00)

depend on the reg, a lot of good regs tend to float bdfds and bet them on the river rather than turn since they rep more this way. plus i agree he is a lot more likely to bet qx on the turn rather than river. also he might decide to bet something like aj or a small pair on river sometimes. in general prob look it up and take a note if it's anything funky?

I would BxB.

As played I'm more likely to XR the river than XC.

Check/folding the flop is underrated and I hate to bet, bet at these boards with pocket pairs because you're barreling with barely any equity on a board that you know is going to get floated and a turn you know they are only going to call with Qx or better.

I don't like check/calling the river, becauce once you check the turn you've capped your perceived range and the villain can bet his hands on the turn or on the river as he pleases and there's no way to know the tendency or distribution of his value bets and bluffs. I agree with Improva that turning your hand into a bluff is best on the K if you want to fight for the pot, whether or not that's a bet or a check/raise is debatable but pesonally I find the check/raise is "queer" and gets either looked up or shoved on a lot. I like the idea of lead overbetting here a bit more because it's cheaper and gets looked up or rebluffed less fwiw since it's not as cute, but I usually just check thru' Kx here and hope to bluff catch so eh.

I would BxB.

As played I'm more likely to XR the river than XC.

What are your reasons for wanting to ch/r? When he checks back the turn, wouldn't we be more likely to lead out with a K vs. check?

Def turn your hand into a bluff and bet that river because if we assume the villain is a reasonable player, he will bet the river with a range that you can't call with and if he check back the river we should not win at showdown very often. X/R the river can be used occasionally but should not bet your standard play.

Def turn your hand into a bluff and bet that river because if we assume the villain is a reasonable player, he will bet the river with a range that you can't call with and if he check back the river we should not win at showdown very often. X/R the river can be used occasionally but should not bet your standard play.

I just have a hard time finding better hands that he will fold when I bet the river. I agree that we can't call against his river range, but shouldn't we win often if he checks back? (not that he often will, but I'd expect him to almost always value bet better hands)

I just have a hard time finding better hands that he will fold when I bet the river. I agree that we can't call against his river range, but shouldn't we win often if he checks back? (not that he often will, but I'd expect him to almost always value bet better hands)

So what if no better hands fold? You lose to 83o when you X/F the river for example. Making better hands fold means nothing by itself just like value betting means nothing unless you're IP on the river. I promise you or anyone else will get better at poker once they can get away from "value and bluffs" and think in terms of EV instead.

So what if no better hands fold? You lose to 83o when you X/F the river for example. Making better hands fold means nothing by itself just like value betting means nothing unless you're IP on the river. I promise you or anyone else will get better at poker once they can get away from "value and bluffs" and think in terms of EV instead.

Yeah I've heard you talk about this a lot before and I'm trying to train myself to think this way, but sometimes I still want to think in terms "value and bluffs" for understanding why a certain line is higher EV.

When you say you don't have a plan on the turn, what do you do here normally? Because c/f seems pretty weak if he's ever floating and/or betting worse for protection. Your standard should be to c/c turn IMO.

I think c/c river is really bad, I also think overbetting makes no sense since you shouldn't really be polarized (you wouldn't overbet KT, right?) and you're trying to get him off Qx or JJ-TT if you're bluffing.

I think c/c river is really bad, I also think overbetting makes no sense since you shouldn't really be polarized (you wouldn't overbet KT, right?) and you're trying to get him off Qx or JJ-TT if you're bluffing.

Yeah I think ch/c river is probably the worst option.

I expect him to 3b TT-JJ almost always and I think it might be optimistic to assume he will fold Qx to a river bet.

When you say you don't have a plan on the turn, what do you do here normally? Because c/f seems pretty weak if he's ever floating and/or betting worse for protection. Your standard should be to c/c turn IMO.

I think c/c river is really bad, I also think overbetting makes no sense since you shouldn't really be polarized (you wouldn't overbet KT, right?) and you're trying to get him off Qx or JJ-TT if you're bluffing.

Yes, I'd overbet Kx.

Yes, I'd overbet Kx.

Why? I guess it seems reasonable from a GTO perspective, since you get to this river with so much air that if you're bluffing at least part of it with a decent frequency then any type of bluffcatcher should be a snap call by him getting 2.5:1 -- is that your reasoning?

The thing is that I think his range is so weak that he would probably expect us to make it 52 like hero did with a rivered Kx and overbet air (if we ever overbet, of course), which is the level 1 thing that alot of regs seem to do, in my experience.

Then again, who knows what this guy is thinking, because a good chunk of the regs will instamuck anything if you make it 90.

I take it that you check turn planning to give up and not to bluff catch. If that's the way you felt about the hand I don't see any reason to change the plan on river.

I really don't see how the King changes any of that.

You say Villain is valuebetting thin so he could valuebet most Queens and any King. He will expect you to lead out with AQ or a King. Since you didn't I guess QJ,QT is a easy value bet for this specific villain.

I don't like the idea of a CR - or at least you should have had it planned on previous streets. It seems that you are struggling reading his hole cards in this case and I think that's an argument for not CR. It's much easier to come up with a good CR and a good sizing if you are aiming at some specific range.

If you do CR on River it might work but it would be a " I don't really know so I guess I CR kind of move".

It would nice to know his fold to cbet - if it's low I might just barrel turn.

It would nice to know his fold to cbet - if it's low I might just barrel turn.

Fold to cbet was 7/14 so far. I don't think that it's very relevant, though, since this is spot where I expect him to be calling a lot.

I agree that barreling turn might be our best option since we don't really know his turn and river tendencies in this spot. For those suggesting a bet, check, bet line, what would be your plan against an unknown when villain barrels turn and river?