good contra-arguments regards to my initial thought that I cannot make assumptions on the average reg at NL2/4 b/c he likely is not a Reg there.
But when I now rethink it with your argument - lol, even then -> it seems for me that to jam there AQ/KQ he would have zero clue about perceived ranges.
Imo today most Micro/SSNL-Regs will know enough in this spot to not missvaluejam Qx-hands OTR...
But anyways, with your thought I would not hate a call anymore, but still feel ok with a fold.
for me it's just that I feel that we would fold way to many hands on the river if we fold to a shove. Because, if we fold the nutstraight, we are folding all trips, too, and we are basicly only calling if we have a fh/quads. And I feel that his only real hand here is JJ, because I doubt most players would c/c this flop with QQ/TT/QJ (not impossible, but I think the chances are really low).
Let's assume just one theoretical spot: He doesn't think that you can have AK/AA-QQ here. He also thinks that you would cb all hands that aren't a fh, because you don't expect him to fold any hand on the river anymore. He has AQ and hopes you might find a herocall with like AJ/KJ. I mean, it's a theoretical spot, but I think that you can find a lot of players who would think about this situation that way (I don't say it's correct to think that way, just that some players do).
So overall, folding can't be bad, but I just think that you should call in this spot, because I just feel that after 50 hands he might do so many stupid stuff that I don't want to fold AK (I'd start with folding KQ, not sure about AQ, but it should be a fold, too I guess, because we block his Qx combos).
What you mean with saying that you would not call here under this circumstances?
That I have no info at him and hence I should prefer to take the guaranteed +ev Vacuumspot, even though I have here an imo so balanced 3betcall-range so that even readless I feel that I can play my range here +ev by calling?
Here again, I don't think it's bad by any means. It's one of the close decisions. I just think that you don't know enough at this point about your opponent, to make enough good assumptions about his range postflop. After 50 hands we don't even know if he is 3betting 4% or 12%. So I would just go for the simple +ev play. If after let's say 500 hands I know what he is up to, I have missed maybe 1 chance to play my AK in a more +ev spot postflop, but the decision might just be better in such a small way, that I have no problem with giving up on it right now.
Overall I like calling with AK there, too, but only if we really have a plan against our opponent. And I don't think we have that right now. Overall it's a close spot, but right now I would take the general +ev line.