Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

I think you are underestimating how fast you can develop reads, but i agree that its pretty unlikely to get any good info about a spot like this. But anything that you have seen him do can be helpful.

agree agree - just rly haven`t in this case seen him doing anything to helpful...
but yeah, of course notetaking and extrapolating infos on other spots and making guesses/assumptions is important.

I dont think I have seen x/c x/c donk for anything other than value.

I'm not sure about the flop bet, presume broadways are in villans range.

As played I would give villan credit forvslow playing a set (or 2 pair) vs an aggressive player, filling up and donking river huge for value.

ok, but imo he would need to have zero of a brain to value-leadjam OTR

fyp imo.

Btw, I like pre given positions and so far he doesn't seem out of line. I think I would most likely sigh/fold otr for the reasons you stated.

Whats the worst hand you call with here?

Interesting would be of course what limits ppl play posting in this thread.
b/c as said, would I play NL100 or so, then I would agree that KQ,AQ w/e is more likely readless based on average skillsets...

and how do you know that he isn't a nl100/200 reg taking a shot at nl400?

you can't argue with the average skillset, because the average nl400 player would not jam the river as played. so he shouldn't be the "typical" nl400 player.

Folding can't be bad, because if he only ships FH+ our call would be horrible. But we don't know his exact range, and so it might be +ev to call. Overall you don't know what type of player he really is after 50 hands -> it becomes a call.

And like I said, I don't think your call preflop is bad, but given the circumstances, I think it's not the best play.

fyp imo.

Btw, I like pre given positions and so far he doesn't seem out of line. I think I would most likely sigh/fold otr for the reasons you stated.

Whats the worst hand you call with here?

that is a very interesting question.
I feel that this is a spot where I do not have to worry about being balanced (and not folding too much) b/c it comes up way too rarely.
I am not sure if I would like to bet OTF w JJ or not - if so, I would call it off w JJ.
But as sick at it seems, TT seems here also foldable for me.

and how do you know that he isn't a nl100/200 reg taking a shot at nl400?

you can't argue with the average skillset, because the average nl400 player would not jam the river as played. so he shouldn't be the "typical" nl400 player.

Folding can't be bad, because if he only ships FH+ our call would be horrible. But we don't know his exact range, and so it might be +ev to call. Overall you don't know what type of player he really is after 50 hands -> it becomes a call.

And like I said, I don't think your call preflop is bad, but given the circumstances, I think it's not the best play.

good contra-arguments regards to my initial thought that I cannot make assumptions on the average reg at NL2/4 b/c he likely is not a Reg there.
But when I now rethink it with your argument - lol, even then -> it seems for me that to jam there AQ/KQ he would have zero clue about perceived ranges.
Imo today most Micro/SSNL-Regs will know enough in this spot to not missvaluejam Qx-hands OTR...
But anyways, with your thought I would not hate a call anymore, but still feel ok with a fold.

@pre:
What you mean with saying that you would not call here under this circumstances?
That I have no info at him and hence I should prefer to take the guaranteed +ev Vacuumspot, even though I have here an imo so balanced 3betcall-range so that even readless I feel that I can play my range here +ev by calling?

Dreadful spot - I dont think there is a correct answer without reads.

In favour of calling:

As per prev, given we flat pre flop a villain may bluff thinking we can never have AK. Can villain not jam with missed flush draw?

His line looks so bluffy and BAD that it leans us toward calling.

In favour of folding:

Most players would have to assume not many players are folding Qx or better in a 3 bet pot even given wet board.

He always has full house.

Not sure I can fold here without reads.

good contra-arguments regards to my initial thought that I cannot make assumptions on the average reg at NL2/4 b/c he likely is not a Reg there.
But when I now rethink it with your argument - lol, even then -> it seems for me that to jam there AQ/KQ he would have zero clue about perceived ranges.
Imo today most Micro/SSNL-Regs will know enough in this spot to not missvaluejam Qx-hands OTR...
But anyways, with your thought I would not hate a call anymore, but still feel ok with a fold.

for me it's just that I feel that we would fold way to many hands on the river if we fold to a shove. Because, if we fold the nutstraight, we are folding all trips, too, and we are basicly only calling if we have a fh/quads. And I feel that his only real hand here is JJ, because I doubt most players would c/c this flop with QQ/TT/QJ (not impossible, but I think the chances are really low).

Let's assume just one theoretical spot: He doesn't think that you can have AK/AA-QQ here. He also thinks that you would cb all hands that aren't a fh, because you don't expect him to fold any hand on the river anymore. He has AQ and hopes you might find a herocall with like AJ/KJ. I mean, it's a theoretical spot, but I think that you can find a lot of players who would think about this situation that way (I don't say it's correct to think that way, just that some players do).

So overall, folding can't be bad, but I just think that you should call in this spot, because I just feel that after 50 hands he might do so many stupid stuff that I don't want to fold AK (I'd start with folding KQ, not sure about AQ, but it should be a fold, too I guess, because we block his Qx combos).

@pre:
What you mean with saying that you would not call here under this circumstances?
That I have no info at him and hence I should prefer to take the guaranteed +ev Vacuumspot, even though I have here an imo so balanced 3betcall-range so that even readless I feel that I can play my range here +ev by calling?

Here again, I don't think it's bad by any means. It's one of the close decisions. I just think that you don't know enough at this point about your opponent, to make enough good assumptions about his range postflop. After 50 hands we don't even know if he is 3betting 4% or 12%. So I would just go for the simple +ev play. If after let's say 500 hands I know what he is up to, I have missed maybe 1 chance to play my AK in a more +ev spot postflop, but the decision might just be better in such a small way, that I have no problem with giving up on it right now.

Overall I like calling with AK there, too, but only if we really have a plan against our opponent. And I don't think we have that right now. Overall it's a close spot, but right now I would take the general +ev line.

I don't have comprehensive statistics of 400nl, but at 200nl 4bet/calling AK vs 3bet/5bet ranges at 200nl is -EV because villains are only 3bet/5betting AK, QQ+ with little to no bluffs and this is one of the most common SNL leaks there is fwiw. You're either calling and hoping the villain has Axs, KQo as the bottom of his range or calling based on pot odds and position with the intention of semi-bluffing the villains AK combinations out of his Cbetting range.

Either the opponent has a naked value range or he isn't bluffing enough for you to worry about being exploited, if you only 4bet/called AA/KK here, folded AKo and called AKs, QQ you'd probably be better off then what you're suggesting. Do the math and compare it to your own HEM files vs regulars, I guarantee you that you're bleeding money.

As far as KQ, QJs, JJ, I think you guys are absolutely bat shit insane if you are Cbetting "for value" there, do you think he's calling pre-flop with anything less than AQ+, AJs, KQs, TT+? It's a clear check/call on the flop and crying call on the turn, and I think river leading for value does make a lot of sense because there's just so little we can have that he'd actually value bet against because it's not like we're going to crying call KQ vs AK.

I teamed up with 2 other players to go over this spot, and we got to the point that the bluffing frequencies at nl100/200 are high enough to justify it. we did this on stars, so it might be possible that on party/ipoker/etc it might not be correct to do so.

this is one of the spots that are depending on the player. if you are playing a 20/18 style with a 7% 3b then I can see that it might not be +ev to 4b/c with AK. but if you are playing a more loose style, it becomes +ev

so yeah, I don't think you are wrong, but I don't think you are completly correct either.

as far to the cbetting part: I'm pretty sure most people cbet Qx on the flop, and that the preflop 3bet calling range is way to tight.

We need 30% to stack off, right? I´d agree that we probably see KQ in this spot like close to 0%.

Against TT-QQ, AKss and all AQ´s we have 35%. If we exclude all AQ´s we got 3%. So, the margin for a mistake is way more on the bad side for us. We have to put in almost all combos of AQ to make this a slightly marginal (or even break-even) calling-spot for us.

Strange line by Villain for sure ... but still I think it´s a fold.

I teamed up with 2 other players to go over this spot, and we got to the point that the bluffing frequencies at nl100/200 are high enough to justify it. we did this on stars, so it might be possible that on party/ipoker/etc it might not be correct to do so.

this is one of the spots that are depending on the player. if you are playing a 20/18 style with a 7% 3b then I can see that it might not be +ev to 4b/c with AK. but if you are playing a more loose style, it becomes +ev

so yeah, I don't think you are wrong, but I don't think you are completly correct either.

as far to the cbetting part: I'm pretty sure most people cbet Qx on the flop, and that the preflop 3bet calling range is way to tight.

IDK, I remember seeing the results of 300+ regular players in HEM at 200nl and below and none of them had a meaningful, or even any, amount of 3bet bluffs in their range for blind vs EP confrontations and even if they did have a balanced golden ration you'd still be better off calling with AKo just to play against the bottom of their range with a dominating hand and to stop&go vs the villain's AK. Granted that was circa 2010, but I don't think much has changed since then fwiw.

I typically call my entire range vs a 3bet from the blinds in EP at high(er) stakes , and I only 4bet KK+ if my opponent is the kind of reg-fish who goes "derf, derf AI with AK/QQ." It had a non-negligble impact on increasing my win rate, it feels counter intuitive but it's entirely logical when you think about it and see it for yourself.

We need 30% to stack off, right? I´d agree that we probably see KQ in this spot like close to 0%.

Against TT-QQ, AKss and all AQ´s we have 35%. If we exclude all AQ´s we got 3%. So, the margin for a mistake is way more on the bad side for us. We have to put in almost all combos of AQ to make this a slightly marginal (or even break-even) calling-spot for us.

Strange line by Villain for sure ... but still I think it´s a fold.

+1

Easy fold on the river and mark villain as a fish.

pretty surprising that everyone would fold everything worse then JJ