Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Poker Stars $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1746389
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Hero (MP): $521.51
CO: $434.00
BTN: $462.39
SB: $147.96
BB: $404.00
UTG: $553.03

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is MP with K A
1 fold, Hero raises to $12, 3 folds, BB raises to $38, Hero calls $26

Flop: ($78.00) Q T 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $38.38, BB calls $38.38

Turn: ($154.76) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $84.54, BB calls $84.54

River: ($323.84) Q (2 players)
BB bets $243.08, Hero ?

Villain: 22/18 - only 50 hands

With these posis I mostly call pre AK vs, a 3bet.
The river is strange:
My perceived range is including some AA,KK-combos, some AK-combos, often JJ,TT.
Would you agree so far?

If I am with my estimation on my perceived range right,
then it seems that

- he cannot rly bluffleadjam (readless) here (maybe a weak madehand which wants to turn into a bluff here)

- also cannot valuejam worse.

-> Fold or am I anywhere off?
-> what would be the worst hand you call off here? (what for a range would you put for villain into stove?)

Close spot probably but id end up calling here and see AQ or KQ enough of the times. If you think about what hands we are afraid of here, like JJ or TT or QJ, they prob all play differently, most likely with a bet or a c/r on the turn. Imo his hand looks like a very transparently played AQ or KQ.

edit: I just want to add that i dont think his play is good pretty much regardless of what he holds.

what hands can villain c/c the flop with?
I expect him to bet his value hands and air on this flop, don't you?
This board just hits our range so hard that he should never be bluffing imo.
I think QJ/JJ could make sense.

Close spot probably but id end up calling here and see AQ or KQ enough of the times. If you think about what hands we are afraid of here, like JJ or TT or QJ, they prob all play differently, most likely with a bet or a c/r on the turn. Imo his hand looks like a very transparently played AQ or KQ.

edit: I just want to add that i dont think his play is good pretty much regardless of what he holds.

ok, but imo he would need to have zero of a brain to value-leadjam OTR AQ, KQ.
Istn`t it decent to assume form an unknwon reggish player that he has a brain at NL 2/4, readless based on average observations?
At NL50 I agree and would call due to your reasoning.

I don't expect to see AQ/KQ very often. It's just bad.
Imo AQ/KQ are not more then bluffcatchers on this board.

Does KQ check/call the flop, check/call the turn after picking up the draw and then lead the river for value assumming he can't value bet the flop and AA-KK check behind the river instead of value betting once the Q pairs?

I'm guessing either KQo or QJs make sense here, he can't raise QJs on the turn for value vs your range so it makes the most sense IMO.

Edit: Also AK, JJ could get there the same way, AK, JJ, KQ, QJ all share the same line there. And in the worse case scenario we have like 35% equity so it seems like AK is the bottom of our calling range even if he only ever does this with AK as the bottom of his range?

If we have 35% in the worst case we should call because we need 30%. right?

I mean, i think that KQ AQ is pretty unlikely, and as i said i dont think i like the line. But i cant seem to get any other hands to really fit in either. JJ sure he might only call the turn but doesnt it make very little sense given that we have only a 2/3 pot left to play with. Id say the same about QJ i wouldnt expect to see QJ here very often, most players (?) doesnt 3bet QJ that often, and if we assume he only does it while its suited, there arent that many combos really...

I think its pretty hard to do any further analysis with no more information about the player tbh. I know that you only had 50 hands but 50 hands is over 40-45 minutes of play so you should have some reads?

i think preflop is bad
as played river is a call, he shows up with Qx often enough here. i think not a lot ak combos in your perceived range what makes it even more a call

i think preflop is bad
as played river is a call, he shows up with Qx often enough here. i think not a lot ak combos in your perceived range what makes it even more a call

If he has no AK in his perceived range, what does he have? TT,JJ,AQ? That makes it a terrible spot for villain to bluff..

Why is preflop bad?

readless I think you have to call here

without any read I don't like the call pre, too, I think 4b>call

I

I think its pretty hard to do any further analysis with no more information about the player tbh. I know that you only had 50 hands but 50 hands is over 40-45 minutes of play so you should have some reads?

oh rly?
When you have on average a clearly (not a pseudo one) read after 50hands which helps you significantly in a strange spot that mb happens to me all few k hands, then congratulation.

i think preflop is bad
as played river is a call, he shows up with Qx often enough here. i think not a lot ak combos in your perceived range what makes it even more a call

lol @ preflop being bad.
I mix it up pre with 3betting ang 4betting, but do not wanna elaborate on my reasoning (gameplan) behind it.
As said,
for him jamming Qx, is absolutely terribad - rly surprised that so many ppl think he would jam here Qx readless as MSNL (at micros I would agree).

btw.,
I would not give him too many AK-combos in his range playing this way with this posis.
That would decrease my EQ, if he rly would mostly not jam worse, where I was pretty sure before posting this hand, but not so sure now.
Interesting would be of course what limits ppl play posting in this thread.
b/c as said, would I play NL100 or so, then I would agree that KQ,AQ w/e is more likely readless based on average skillsets...

If we don't expect him to have AK (He would cbet it a fair amount of the time) and I don't see him jamming river with AQ/KQ then this is a clear fold.

Imo calling pre is fine. If we never have AK when we flat, how easy are we to read?

oh rly?
When you have on average a clearly (not a pseudo one) read after 50hands which helps you significantly in a strange spot that mb happens to me all few k hands, then congratulation.

I think you are underestimating how fast you can develop reads, but i agree that its pretty unlikely to get any good info about a spot like this. But anything that you have seen him do can be helpful.