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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by sthief09 (Mid Stakes)

Time Link to 00:03:50

There are also 10 clubs, 2 jacks, and 3 aces we can call a bet on on the turn.

Time Link to 00:25:09

You say that villain ALWAYS slowplays his made hands. But as I see you have only 112 hands on him - so how often could you've seen that? Thats just not representative enough, right?

You say that villain ALWAYS slowplays his made hands. But as I see you have only 112 hands on him - so how often could you've seen that? Thats just not representative enough, right?

I'll see if Justin wants to post (don't think he checks the threads) but I would guess he saw him slowplay a few times. Certain fish just LOVE to slowplay at every opportunity so I've definitely formed similarly strong reads over small samples.

Time Link to 00:35:38

We have a 16/11 that is calling and EP raise. I think that we can narrow his PF calling range a lot here to some MPP (88-JJ), as Hero his likely to have strong opening range. Not sure he calls with small PP as this is unlikely to be EV+ oop vs an EP open.

I think that vs a range that strong he is likely to fold 88-99 a lot because he is very likely to face a lot of pressure OTF and OTT and these hands are really marginal.

Yes we could have a couple of AA and KK combos in the mix, but I rarely see this like theses days in this spot... so maybe 1-2 combos of each if we want to consider this as possible.... but I really doubt that he is check raising river with these hands, because he isnt very likely to be called by worse (Hero folded QQ....)

I think that this spot looks a lot like slowplayed TT.
Maybe some loose aggro players could turn TJ type of hand into a bluff, but I don't think this is in vilain's preflop flatting range in this spot.

In this exact spot, vs this kind of player, I am even wondering if we can call with AA here and be EV+?

Also, considering the above assumptions, can we really value bet QQ OTR in this spot? Without any dynamic, not sure..???

We have a 16/11 that is calling and EP raise. I think that we can narrow his PF calling range a lot here to some MPP (88-JJ), as Hero his likely to have strong opening range. Not sure he calls with small PP as this is unlikely to be EV+ oop vs an EP open.

I think that vs a range that strong he is likely to fold 88-99 a lot because he is very likely to face a lot of pressure OTF and OTT and these hands are really marginal.

Yes we could have a couple of AA and KK combos in the mix, but I rarely see this like theses days in this spot... so maybe 1-2 combos of each if we want to consider this as possible.... but I really doubt that he is check raising river with these hands, because he isnt very likely to be called by worse (Hero folded QQ....)

I think that this spot looks a lot like slowplayed TT.
Maybe some loose aggro players could turn TJ type of hand into a bluff, but I don't think this is in vilain's preflop flatting range in this spot.

In this exact spot, vs this kind of player, I am even wondering if we can call with AA here and be EV+?

Also, considering the above assumptions, can we really value bet QQ OTR in this spot? Without any dynamic, not sure..???

I agree with most of this, but I think there may be too many assumptions. For example, calling a small pair preflop is likely to be unprofitable, however we have to consider them to sometimes be in villain's range because some people do call them. I also think checking back the river relies on a lot of assumptions. I expect to get called by JJ. Even if his calling range is JJ and TT, it's a significantly profitable bet.

I think you're right that calling the shove with AA is no good, but I just have trouble giving him credit for having exactly TT. The reality is that if QQ is a snap fold so AA should probably fold also.

Time Link to 00:35:38

T2264 w/ QQ, I'd not be happy to get xr'd on the river if I had 66 there (maybe somewhat mubsy). It's a pretty spazzy bluff spot and I would pretty much never expect to see AA from villain. I guess it's sort of a case of very narrow value and bluff ranges where adding even one or two combos to either range would change value:bluff ratio a ton. Still, I wouldn't try to xr-bluff here pretty much ever cos I wouldn't be totally amazed to get called by JJ+, I would kinda expect hero to think it's a clear fold when reviewing the hand but in-game it's different.

I would expect villain to call flop w/ 99-77 almost 100% of the time tho.

4.5x'ing utg seems pretty unorthodox, is it your standard size or very table/stack dependant?

Time Link to 00:42:50

KK on QJ9s. I don't really like the small bet even if we're bet/folding (or maybe especially?). There's still a bunch of hands that are behind us, we're committed vs bluffpot anyway, I think it's most likely gonna be a bet/fold vs the reg behind us anyway (and idk if we're really even getting much EV from him in this spot anyway). Our bet looks pretty much equally strong with any non-retarded sizing and I don't think we're inducing that much more action by betting small. Gotta say I'm surprised how well we do vs a reasonable xr-range, I was kinda looking to bet/fold vs Kirbster but even then I'd make it bigger. Given what stove showed us it seems we're committed vs Kirbster too. So essentially we're bet/calling vs the fishier guys anyway and pretty much bet/folding vs the reg anyway, so we shouldn't we just bet bigger?