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Poker Stars $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em $2 Ante - 5 players - View hand 1548070
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BTN: $1026.20
SB: $4093.05
Hero (BB): $2500.00
UTG: $1395.40
CO: $3580.60

Pre Flop: ($25.00) Hero is BB with K J
1 fold, CO raises to $25, 1 fold, SB calls $20, Hero raises to $120, CO calls $95, 1 fold

Flop: ($275.00) 6 K 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $115.75, Hero calls $115.75

Turn: ($506.50) T (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $287.30, Hero calls $287.30

River: ($1081.10) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3055.55 all in, Hero folds

Hi, this Hand was played about a week ago, I had no particular reads on villain. He is a rather tight, fairly competent Tag, playing about 18/16. I 3bet KJo because the SB caller is a huge Whale, playing about 50/14, almost never folding to 3bets.

When the flop hits I decide to bluffcatch even though my hand is relativly strong, because stats say villain bets lots when checked too, also I would honestly not know how thinly to bet my TP med kicker on various turns and rivers. Also I had The Kh which helps with my bluffcatching line.

Pre I think Villain might never be 4betting cause of the fish and the stack depth, maybe KK+ or only AA, which I think this guy would not do for balancing sakes. I think he would call AQ+, any Pair, any suited Broadway and suited connector and any suited Ace, maybe AJo too.
OTF, when villain bets <half pot I weigh his range to mediocre SD hands like 8x, 6x and 99 - QQ. I doubt that he would choose this betsize with draws or even pure bluffs. Maybe some Kxhh that wants action, maybe sets.

The turn does not change much since I did not give him 97, T8s and TT improved though, I obviously call again.

The River totally bricks and he shoves almost 2x pot. Is he ever bluffing here? I was pretty much at the top of my range, but calling did not seem too apealing. My percieved range should be pretty weak, mostly weak Kx and QQ, JJ type of hands.

Does his weird sizing( 40% flop, 56% turn, 190% river) lead us to think he is strong? Because he would prob. bet bigger on flop with most hands that could be bluffing later. Or should I just bluffcatch, considdering that I am at the top of my range and villain should think that I fold almost anything to that bet.

What is villain's Value range? Would He bet KTs or T8s this way? I actually doubt that. TT would make lots of sense with the weak flop bet. KK, 88 and 66 maybe too. That leaves 12 combos of sets. So Villain would need to bluff 8+ combos for me to call. Thoughts?

Pretty sure he could do this with KT obviously i dont know him though whats his nick? i really wouldn't like a hero call here tbh i think hes just gunner have it way often... do you think he has the balls to be bluffing in this spot?/ how good or pycho is he? vs some crazy people i dont think i would fold but the person you explained i think this is just a fold

Zartrüssel at stars

think the big questionmark is about how villain is constructing his range here and since we do not know it, we would have to make wild assumptions.

your idea to induce action was born out of doubt as you have said. and i think you have handled those doubts wrong, so this spot. next time you dont know how light to vbet, you propably shouldnt vbet light but x/f early.. like cbet x/f... he is unknown yet, he wont be much longer, so dont worry about exploitation.

i dont mind inducing action vs unknowns, but i think we'd need a bit stronger hand for that.. like AK or better. still with inducing unknowns you will never know what kind of tree you'll get by planting this semen. lol metaphor.

Probably right that I should have just cbet flop, but the c/folding turn seems bad, since I would expect him to float quite a lot of weak draws on the flop, deep as we were, to take it away later.

hmm you seem to be right, just counted some possible combinations and his range still is very vulnerable to a bet.. id say it's 50/50..

a) The 3bet preflop was a pretty big mistake. You are going to be OOP 250bb deep very very often with KJo!? CO is not going to fold very often.

b) cbetting the flop would not have made the hand any easier to play (because of stack size). The real question is will he stab or float? That is where your money is going to come from. Looking at bet-when-checked-to (or whatever that stat is called) will not tell you much since villian's range construction depends mostly on the range he expects you to be checking.

c) I would just take a note and move on. Villain cannot see what you folded. If you feel exploited at some point start calling with the top of your range.

A) Can the 3bet really Be a mistake? As I pointed out I was in the bb, and had Position over a HUGE whale who played 70/15, and was calling 3bets 80%. Considering this, folding my hand can't be an option, so why should I not 3bet, knowing that the Tag ip, will rarely if ever 4bet, to take the Intiative. In 80% the pot will be protected by the fish which allows me to play relatively straight foreward. My High card value ip vs the Fish seems too good to not increase the size of the pot.

b) valid point. I still think He would stab with lots of hands, and that his bet ip stat is of relevance since I will be c/folding often when I don't cbet such a drawy board. By now, I am actually kind of happy with my play though, since the tiny flop bet leads me to believe he eather had weak SD value or a nutted hand which wants to keep me in the pot, so, since there are not a lot of draws he could have bluffed me with, unless he turned weak SD value into bluff, which seems unlikly for this villain. So I think folding river was the right play.

The pot is not protected by the fish since he never has anything and the reg has position on you both. So you will end up OOP vs the reg very very often and will either have to XF or play pot control.

This deep you should already start pot controlling KJo preflop.

Protected, I mean in the sence, that I can Vbet anything on the flop, knowing the Tag won't raise to keep the fish in. Obviously I wouldn't bluff Air.