Poker Stars $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em $2 Ante - 5 players - View hand 1548070
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Hero (BB): $2500.00
Pre Flop: ($25.00) Hero is BB with K J
1 fold, CO raises to $25, 1 fold, SB calls $20, Hero raises to $120, CO calls $95, 1 fold
Flop: ($275.00) 6 K 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $115.75, Hero calls $115.75
Turn: ($506.50) T (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $287.30, Hero calls $287.30
River: ($1081.10) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3055.55 all in, Hero folds
Hi, this Hand was played about a week ago, I had no particular reads on villain. He is a rather tight, fairly competent Tag, playing about 18/16. I 3bet KJo because the SB caller is a huge Whale, playing about 50/14, almost never folding to 3bets.
When the flop hits I decide to bluffcatch even though my hand is relativly strong, because stats say villain bets lots when checked too, also I would honestly not know how thinly to bet my TP med kicker on various turns and rivers. Also I had The Kh which helps with my bluffcatching line.
Pre I think Villain might never be 4betting cause of the fish and the stack depth, maybe KK+ or only AA, which I think this guy would not do for balancing sakes. I think he would call AQ+, any Pair, any suited Broadway and suited connector and any suited Ace, maybe AJo too.
OTF, when villain bets <half pot I weigh his range to mediocre SD hands like 8x, 6x and 99 - QQ. I doubt that he would choose this betsize with draws or even pure bluffs. Maybe some Kxhh that wants action, maybe sets.
The turn does not change much since I did not give him 97, T8s and TT improved though, I obviously call again.
The River totally bricks and he shoves almost 2x pot. Is he ever bluffing here? I was pretty much at the top of my range, but calling did not seem too apealing. My percieved range should be pretty weak, mostly weak Kx and QQ, JJ type of hands.
Does his weird sizing( 40% flop, 56% turn, 190% river) lead us to think he is strong? Because he would prob. bet bigger on flop with most hands that could be bluffing later. Or should I just bluffcatch, considdering that I am at the top of my range and villain should think that I fold almost anything to that bet.
What is villain's Value range? Would He bet KTs or T8s this way? I actually doubt that. TT would make lots of sense with the weak flop bet. KK, 88 and 66 maybe too. That leaves 12 combos of sets. So Villain would need to bluff 8+ combos for me to call. Thoughts?