Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Villain is a super-aggressive reg, over 220 hands playing 26/22, AF 7.5, AFQ 57%, x/r flop 50% (3/6). No real history so far, one of my first hands at the table.

IPoker Network $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

Hero (UTG): $443.80
MP: $408.80
CO: $175.20
BTN: $196.00
SB: $616.90
BB: $1446.35

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $14, 4 folds, BB calls $10

Flop: ($30.00) 3 J 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $18.00, BB raises to $64, Hero calls $46

Turn: ($158.00) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $112.00, Hero calls $112

River: ($382.00) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $1256.35, Hero ...

First of all, I don't play these stakes.

Given reads, I think this is a snap-call, and I think a stove would back that up (I don't have pokerstove.) What types of hands is he x/r on the flop? This villain would almost always 3bet JJ preflop, and either 3bet or fold 33, so the three combos of 77 are the only set combos he could have. The only semi-bluffs that got there are T 9 or 7 8 , which he might not be defending against a UTG opener. There are just too many missed semi-bluffs and pure bluff combos to be folding a hand that is so high in our range distribution.

You should know what to do on this river already when you called turn. Both player's perceived range on the turn has bunch of draws and bunch of bad river cards can come so to call the turn it must be under the assumption that villain will either bluff the river too often or too little. Otherwise it makes more sense to ship the turn since not many river card will be good for you.

I would usually get it in on the turn if you dont have a specific plan for the river.

i tend to agree to get it in on turn, especially when villain is aggressive and check raises flop a lot.

on the other hand, even if he is check raising a ton, we are calling his check raise from UTG and he barrels pretty much a blank (especially as the GS completing hands aren't really in his range, given he called OOP), its not like we are on the button and have a crappy Jack in our range. he also bets pretty damn huge. when he has something like pair+fd or overcard+fd he basically priced himself in (or very close) to call a shove on turn, not sure thats his intention with a draw.

that said, no idea if its closer to fold or shove :-)

Anybody folding the turn? Or is the only question to get it in on the turn or wait for the river?

vs this guy I actually like to click it back on the Flop.
As played, without a read that he barrels too much OTR calling is bad.
Folding the Turn is not an option vs this guy at this stake imo.

As played, without a read that he barrels too much OTR calling is bad.

What do we expect this guy to do with a busted fd? I doubt he just x/f - when there´s less than a psb left. Or aren´t those in his range?

As I said, he had an almost infinite aggression postflop. I can´t imagine that he ever gave up a flop once he chose an aggressive line.

I'd prob jam turn and as played call river, assuming he is somewhat balanced, can still be value shoving worse.

What do we expect this guy to do with a busted fd? I doubt he just x/f - when there´s less than a psb left. Or aren´t those in his range?

As I said, he had an almost infinite aggression postflop. I can´t imagine that he ever gave up a flop once he chose an aggressive line.

I would say those are big part of his range, so why not shove Turn.

I would only consider calling Turn, if I give him credit to go nuts here with pure airballs.

As I said, he had an almost infinite aggression postflop. I can´t imagine that he ever gave up a flop once he chose an aggressive line.

if you have 220 hands on him stats aren't really that conclusive, i rather look at one of the hand histories he played.

i just don't like his line with a FD - that is what bothers me, am i the only one???

he checkraises to 3.5x and then bets 70% on a turn which is like no scare card for our range at all. if we are UTG we have something like TPTK+ here a very high % of the time. he prices himself in giving him 2:1 on a call if we shove and he give us 3:1 on a call on river. not the best sizing if you are bluffing and setting up a tripple barrel bluff. maybe he wants to be balanced with his value range, but in my experience i have more often draws than monsters :-)

oc, when he is the raise or fold guy, he could be playing QQ KK like this on this board, if he decides to slowplay it preflop..

give how big the pot is already, if you put a lot of draws in his range it think shoving is by far the better play than calling.

I'm not sure I like the flop call. Our perceived callingrange there is not often folding turn and in fact very often shoving turn. We're also beating draws, rather than flipping. I'd rather 3b the flop to get all the money in ahead rather than having him x/f turns or getting there. There's also a chance he's raising KJ etc on the flop given his frequencies so far and against a hand like that you definitely want to 3b the flop.

I'm not sure I like the flop call. Our perceived callingrange there is not often folding turn and in fact very often shoving turn.

continuing at all is kinda edgy to start with, bec the draws making us wanna continue there are not in his range usually.

we'd need like 6 additional combos (87s 98s t9s 77 jj + 6 i think) we beat to stack off.. to have a flip here. what is totally unlikely imo.. at least we can count on his aggression that he is morelikely to x/r every gutshot in his range then, should he have fd+gutshot here

so we would need to call the flop.. or simply fold it, bec its too easy to outplay ourselves.

the 8 of hearts is the worst card for us as welll and we'd need to fold it, once we called the flop as it improves T9 (all 4 of those) and our equity drops to be -ev continuing

when taking passive lines it is so important to stick to the board, but i doubt there is another way to play and it improves our overall game as well. going for different lines to avoid being outplayed or making mistakes is not the way to go imo

Folding AA on the flop is a huge leak imo.

of course cbet folding "as a plan" is retarded, i was just pointing out how important it is to have an idea about villains range to continue at all, because we will pay a high price otherwise. and everybody posting looked like they play totally random against this x/r.
folding after the cbet is not retarded though, just not the best play, that was what i was trying to say

in this hand i think that either my reasonings to fold the turn or x/b flop is the best way to play this
not sure how to play on random turns though once we call the flop, so x/b