Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Hello everyone,

This hand is from a week or two ago when I took a shot.

Villain in this hand is a 22/18 reg with an 80% AFq over 72 hands. I know he plays up to around 10/20. My image at the table is super nitty because I've been so card dead.

Poker Stars $3/$6 No Limit Hold'em $1.20 Ante - 6 players - View hand 1504486
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Hero (MP): $1502.40
CO: $1111.45
BTN: $2176.10
SB: $1510.00
BB: $677.95
UTG: $1005.70

Pre Flop: ($16.20) Hero is MP with A J
UTG raises to $18, Hero raises to $57, 4 folds, UTG calls $39

Preflop: I 3b because I have such a good image and I have a hand that doesn't play that well multiway.

Flop: ($130.20) J T 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Flop: I check back to induce bluffs thinking I have AK that whiffed, and I don't think I get much value on the flop if I bet. I also have the As, so I'm not too concerned about a turn.

Turn: ($130.20) 6 (2 players)
UTG bets $84, Hero calls $84

Turn: Villain bets turn, I don't really think there's any other option here.

River: ($298.20) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $192, UTG raises to $863.50 all in, Hero ?

River: This is where things get really interesting. I make a pretty standard value bet and get c/r (OK betsize?). I don't think he flats KQo preflop given postions and my image. He may c/r a few worse value combos (ATs). Additionally, I'm at the top of my range here, so folding is obviously exploitable if he's capable of bluffing here (no read to believe he is, but I would think almost any 10/20 reg is). Finally, I think the fact that my range is capped here, he obviously knows this, and I'm at the top of my range makes this a call.

We need to be good here 33% of the time.

Board: Jd Ts 7s 6d Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.957% 34.78% 02.17% 8 0.50 { AsJh }
Hand 1: 63.043% 60.87% 02.17% 14 0.50 { QQ-TT, 77-66, AJs-ATs, KQs }

Thoughts?

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

You need 33.2% equity to call him, so it looks like a call.

I added QQ in represent some bluffs btw. Basically I'm asking if you think I gave him a reasonable preflop/river range.

Thinking about it now, he probably doesn't have ATs here too often because of preflop and he might check that on the turn a decent amount of the time.

So this is probably more accurate.

Board: Jd Ts 7s 6d Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.952% 28.57% 02.38% 6 0.50 { AsJh }
Hand 1: 69.048% 66.67% 02.38% 14 0.50 { QQ-TT, 77-66, AJs, KQs }

It basically comes down to how often he c/r bluffs here...

I think your hand is quite face up given your image. He's probably expecting you to play somewhat straight forward postflop so the pot control line followed by a river bet here is almost always 2 pair. He probably also expects you to fold bluffcatchers to another bet and you probably flat rivered 2 pairs here if he leads so it makes sense to go for a checkraise when he has you beat. It's also a reasonable spot for him to just bet out on a bluff instead of going for the checkraise so you can take some air out of the checking range. However, his line makes a lot of sense with KK/QQ. There's no point in betting the river, he can't call your bet, and he's blocking the nuts and deep stacks are perfect for big river bluffs. If there's anyone at your table capable of doing this it's probably gonna be him and someone with your image is more than likely capable of laying down 2 pair. I wonder if he does this with 66 or 77 though. His betsize on the turn also doesn't really feel like a set. And he could be folding KQ pre. I think it's probably a call.

Is there anyway checking back>betting river? I forgot to add this in OP, but he took <10 seconds to shove river, how does that change things?

i would not bet the river at all

Thinking more about it now, I think he is c/f or c/r the river here a ton, so b/f shouldn't be an option.