Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Folding the turn is really tight if the villain is even remotely competent, leading TT+ there to simultaneously fold your equity share and value bet the fish considering how often you're checking behind and how likely the fish is to call with worse would make his range wider than just a full house. Both you and the villain don't reach your points of honesty until the river, the turn is too soon to know for certain KK is no good.

I mean is there a disagreement here about how TT should be played in villain's position, i.e. should villain just check/fold TT assuming hero never double barrels turns as a bluff and the only hands villain "can" lead here are sets? Because frankly there's no way in hell his range is polarized, it's just a question of how thinly he can value bet.

XF - unless he leads with the intention of bluffing the river, but that requires some assumptions about what range we will assign to him which I don't think he can assume at 400nl.

So am I off in assumming there's value in playing the middling pairs (JJ or so) with a lead for equity elimination vs the regular and value vs. the fish assuming the regular always checks behind his air and the fish can call with worse? I mean I think check/folding here is perfectly fine because we have such a good read on a regular's barreling tendencies here, but leading thinly seems legitimate in my mind because we don't want to let AK bink the river or lose a street of value vs. the fish.

Like is lead turn and x/f river if the regular calls us just terrible?

Given that Villain´s value range is pretty small on that turn, leading turn w JJ-type hands and x/f river just seems like burning money to me, tbh. - that´s why I´m struggling with the call on the turn.

Wouldn´t it be way too easy for us to just float the turn w any 2 and bet the river if he checks?

Certainly he could take the same line with the nuts - but why should he? If he expects us to check behind with an overpair - there´s no "need" to lead out on the river with a boat.

EDIT: OK, BB being still in the hand makes "floating" on the turn a bit more difficult ... so maybe it´s actually not the worst line with JJ ...

Well, given our range for leading the turn is 100% value and there's a fish in relative position, floating our turn bet and expecting us to check/fold enough for the float to be profitable let alone the fish over calling seems like it'd be setting money on fire.

My main problem is I have no doubt that check/folding JJ- here is a good line, I just don't know how to prove leading JJ is a bad line because there are way more variables to consider with any equity elimination and the fish spewing with a worse hand. I mean, we know exactly what to do when we check and the regular bets here and that makes x/fing the go to line but how do we calculat the EV of a lead with a non nut hand?

I mean, we know exactly what to do when we check and the regular bets here and that makes x/fing the go to line but how do we calculat the EV of a lead with a non nut hand?

I played a bit with StoxEV and obviously it´s quite difficult to model with BB being active, but if we assume BB is mostly dead money and gives up on the turn then leading the turn and checking (with the intention of calling turn and calling most rivers) is roughly the same.

Sorry I didn't catch that, it should be comparing X/F turn vs lead turn, X/F river where the wild cards are whether or not the regular checks behind with AK in case 1 and whether or not the regular and fish fold or whether or not the regular folds and the fish calls with worse in case 2.

And by regular I mean hero, assumming his Cbet flop range is AK, QQ+ A5s, K5s and his calling range on the turn is AKhh, QQ+, A5s, K5s so he folds 15 combos and calls 23 combos on the turn and we'll say the fish looks us up with like TT/99 for one street only.

Sorry I didn't catch that, it should be comparing X/F turn vs lead turn, X/F river where the wild cards are whether or not the regular checks behind with AK in case 1 and whether or not the regular and fish fold or whether or not the regular folds and the fish calls with worse in case 2.

And by regular I mean hero, assumming his Cbet flop range is AK, QQ+ A5s, K5s and his calling range on the turn is AKhh, QQ+, A5s, K5s so he folds 15 combos and calls 23 combos on the turn and we'll say the fish looks us up with like TT/99 for one street only.

With your given parameters (if I didn´t make any mistake in my model) the results with JJ on the turn against Hero (reg) and fish are looking as following (all figures in $, based on NL400):

1) we check, reg barrels 100% (incl. AK) - we fold:

EV = 0

2) we check, reg barrels overpair+ (we fold), checks behind AK - we barrel river set+, check the rest, reg calls / bets overpair+, folds the rest, fish calls 2p+, folds the rest:

EV = +74

3) we lead turn, reg calls QQ+, A5s, K5s, AKhh, folds the rest, fish calls 100%, we barrel river set+, check the rest, reg calls/bets with 2p+ (we fold), checks the rest, fish calls 2p+ (checks/folds the rest):

EV = +61

Second line is a bit confusing, I'd assume we'd lead any non-heart, non-A, K (maybe Q) river with no chance the regular checked behind a better hand and a likely chance the fish calls with worse, which makes the line even higher EV?

What's the EV of the third line when the reg folds and the fish calls twice with worse?

It's looking like I'm wrong here obv., just curious how much I'm off from eye balling this play and if it's -EV (as in not optimally EV) then I think maybe you're right and folding KK on the turn is more plausible.

Thanks for doing the math, I'm awful at it.

Second line is a bit confusing, I'd assume we'd lead any non-heart, non-A, K (maybe Q) river with no chance the regular checked behind a better hand and a likely chance the fish calls with worse, which makes the line even higher EV?

What's the EV of the third line when the reg folds and the fish calls twice with worse?

Good points, I adjusted the model.

2nd line gets a bit better if we barrel the innocous rivers (like $85 now).

3rd line goes slightly up to $63 if we barrel the river 1/2 pot with overpair+ and fish calls with any TP (included 76s). The main reason why it doesn´t have that great of an effect is that this scenario only happens in 40% (reg folds) * 60% (fish calls river) = 24% overall. That´s not much compared with the risk that we invest a bunch of money with little equity against the reg. Additionally, the fish´s range has ~40% against us on the river.

Yeah I think that'd lead you to the conclusion that villain is only capable of leading trips + then, which makes sense if we figure he's the kind of villain that's incapable of leading the turn thinly (and rightfully so regardless). That's a pretty sick fold on the turn then, I don't know if I could make it in game. Thanks.

Interesting hand and discussion. My two cents about all its worth since I play micro, is MP had 66 PP. My reasoning is he leads out with 3BB raise kinda standard (I think for small PP) You 3B, BB calls. I think that this is why MP stays in. With that much in the Pot he pretty much has to call. I think he checks the Flop when he hits his Set. Probably thinking since you have been playing aggro and you 3B PF you will bet. On the Turn either the Flush Draw worries him possible you have AhKh or he puts you on over-pair and figures your not folding. River he figures he has you and wants to stack you.

How is my analysis on this hand? Good? Way off?

On the Turn either the Flush Draw worries him possible you have AhKh [...]

He flopped a full house with 66.

Besides that, AKhh is only one combination - and not worth to "protect" it, given he had no full house. If he had a set - his only (!) concern would be that Hero checks behind - not that he might get sucked out.

He flopped a full house with 66.
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Opps didnt put that together. I was just thinking about his PF raise and call and it looked like a Set to me. I would have to change Turn action to he figures Hero is on the Hook, big PP and will Call.