Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Hello everyone,

This is villain's third hand at the table. He's on around 9 tables from 200NL-600NL.

I think flop/turn are pretty standard.

Poker Stars $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em $0.80 Ante - 3 players - View hand 1490732
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $516.30
BB: $854.00
Hero (BTN): $1223.80

Pre Flop: ($8.40) Hero is BTN with Q Q
Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, BB calls $8

Flop: ($28.40) 7 J T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB raises to $52, Hero calls $32

Turn: ($132.40) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $92, Hero calls $92

River: ($316.40) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $139.95

Thoughts on all streets are appreciated.
Thanks.

i would not expect such mistakes from most villains and simply flat the bet

i would not expect such mistakes from most villains and simply flat the bet

Agree. Hard to get thing value since you credible rep better hands, and villain is going to have better hands in his range as well.

Closer to a fold than a raise. It's really weird for him to underbet since the river is a great card for your bluffcatching range. He minimizes both value (if he's really afraid of you folding an overpair and wants to milk you he can just bet a bit over half pot too) and fold equity. There are only two reasons I can think of for a MSNL reg to underbet in such spots. Either he's making a cheap bluff that's only targeting your missed draws, or he's trying to induce a raise that he's not folding to. So what's your perceived range? Does he think you play T9 T8 78 99 like this? If not, the only missed draws you have are K9 Q9 KQ but you could easily have everything that's Jx and stronger. Also, if he's bluffing your missed draws, he likely has a draw himself blocking your folding range. If he's bluffing he'll also not call a raise, while if he's inducing he has a monster often. So it looks like he's polarized with reasonable odds of being at the top of his range. The only reason for calling is that it's a good spot for him to valuebet larger since the river card is so good for your bluffcatchers.

I guess assuming he's mediocre rakeback grinder this is most likely exactly JT but most mediocre regs probably fold that to a shove, so I'd still just stick with the above and call. Calling also has as benefit that you get to see his hand and thus gain info, while you give almost none away since your line is very standard.

Yeah, I agree.