Say villain is a LAG, and opens 25% from middle position, we flat KQ from the big blind.
Suppose villain cbets 2/3 pot with 100% of his preflop range, is our hand good enough to check-call?
In a vacuum, check-raising this hand is probably more +ev than check-calling, but as part of our overall strategy, we should generally be raising hands that are good enough to raise for value, and only be bluffing with hands that aren't quite good enough to call, which is why I pose the question above.
My thinking is as follows: In order to profitably check-call a 2/3 pot bet on the flop, we must be able to continue profitably on ~30% of turns. Since we can hit a K, Q or backdoor flush draw, there are ~33% of turns we can profitably check-call on.
If we turn our backdoor flush draw, and villain cbets 2/3 pot again, there are ~33% of rivers we can profitably check-call on again.
On top of this, if villain checks back on the turn, we can profitably bluff many rivers.
Is my line of thinking that since we can continue on 33% of turns, and 33% of rivers profitably after facing a 2/3 pot flop cbet, check-calling the flop is +ev correct, or am I missing something?