Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Say villain is a LAG, and opens 25% from middle position, we flat KQ from the big blind.

Flop 742.

Suppose villain cbets 2/3 pot with 100% of his preflop range, is our hand good enough to check-call?

In a vacuum, check-raising this hand is probably more +ev than check-calling, but as part of our overall strategy, we should generally be raising hands that are good enough to raise for value, and only be bluffing with hands that aren't quite good enough to call, which is why I pose the question above.

My thinking is as follows: In order to profitably check-call a 2/3 pot bet on the flop, we must be able to continue profitably on ~30% of turns. Since we can hit a K, Q or backdoor flush draw, there are ~33% of turns we can profitably check-call on.

If we turn our backdoor flush draw, and villain cbets 2/3 pot again, there are ~33% of rivers we can profitably check-call on again.

On top of this, if villain checks back on the turn, we can profitably bluff many rivers.

Is my line of thinking that since we can continue on 33% of turns, and 33% of rivers profitably after facing a 2/3 pot flop cbet, check-calling the flop is +ev correct, or am I missing something?

You're missing everything that matters. it's not how many cards you can continue on etc its what is your equity vs villain's betting range, how often villain bets and how often you can win the pot when villain checks that matter. EV of a play is always vs someone's range and not your own hand compared to the board.

Also EV is affected by future street plays which is affected by position and skill advantage. Those are used to get villain to incorrectly fold their equity or put money bad.

Thanks for the response! I just listened to an interview you did on Deuce Plays, and I learned a ton.

also u can watch Midnight Run episode 2 by chipchucker5. There is similar hand: KJo OOP vs BU. I think it would be interesting for u.

Your math assumption on the flop is completely wrong. That's not how it works. This example should make your mistake more clear:

Lets say you can call a turn bet profitably 100% of the time. The EV of calling the turn bet will be +$1 each time. Villain bets $2 into the $10 pot on the flop. We have to fold because we're paying $2 to only make $1. So even though we can continue profitably 100% of the time calling is still a mistake here.

In your hand, if villain is gonna bet the turn every time and we can continue on the turn a third of the time, then the EV of continuing on the turn has to be 3 times as high as the bet we called on the flop.

The actual math behind check calling the flop in your hand is extremely hard to calculate as it depends on villains strategy vs your strategy which has tons of variables.

Quite interesting and typical situation. What's his Fold to 3-Bet ? I guess it is high, hence you decided to flat, which is obviously fine. I think you have some implied pot odds, cause he is very likely to c-bet and barrel on high cards, that give you top pair.

Board: 7h 4s 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.501% 41.83% 01.67% 113875 4555.50 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 56.499% 54.83% 01.67% 149264 4555.50 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

These calcs assume you are going to see both turn and river cards. If you are going to see only the turn, you equity is 38.994%, which means you should still at least x/c and re-evaluate the situation on the next streets. But be careful if this guy is barrel happy, cause then you will be forced to fold on the turn with a better hand very often, which is bad.