chipchucker5
339 posts
Joined 02/2008
In the hand with 77 I didn't understand your explanation of why it is a good spot for a "turn my hand into a bluff". I mean why do you include the combos of his bluffing hands ? You would beat those hands by just calling. Shouln't we just consider the amount of hands he valuebet/folds and valuebet/calls and then choose between call or raise ?
I had ruled out calling because i don't think it's profitable to do so.
Posted over 1 year ago
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Klemi
4 posts
Joined 09/2009
chipchucker5
339 posts
Joined 02/2008
would you c/r all-in here with KQ aswell? or do you think that's too weak, because of JJ (what we could discount a little bit because he is probably betting it sometimes), J9 and K9 getting there?
nah i think that's too weak. i mean i really wasn't expecting a ton of worse hands to call honestly..thought like AK would be one of the worst hands that would call a shove. he's not betting Jx on river and may check back like K4s type stuff on turn a decent amt of the time. so yeah, against a typical opponent, i think KQ is just too weak to c/shove here..obv against this guy it would be goot 
Posted over 1 year ago
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QuattroFour4
2 posts
Joined 02/2008
In the 77 hand, I think it's reasonable to assume he opens the button somewhere near 40-50% of the time and, like you said, he's cbetting flop and turn with a lot of his range, since we're folding either flop or turn a lot. You listed hands that would be barreling the turn (clubs, any 5, 2 overcards to the 6), but since a turn barrel is going to be so profitable can't we extend his barreling range to include a lot more hands than just ones with draws? And once all these hands get to the river, they're surely not going to check back with no showdown value, so isn't there a ton of merit to just calling rather than crai'ing? Certainly we're good enough of the time (~30%) for this to be profitable, and I just feel like if they're 3-barreling KK/QQ/KJ/QJ for value they're gonna be pretty paranoid and call a lot on this river (we're repping 33, 66, maybe 44 and A6s/A3s/AJ sometimes, so ~10-12 combos total).
Posted over 1 year ago
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donkrx
68 posts
Joined 02/2012
Time Link to 00:15:00
This play seems very transparent to me, what are we trying to rep here exactly, and what does he think we have when we bet turn and check a blank river? I feel like anytime we have a value hand we just bet the river and all-in makes it look even more bluffy even though its not an overbet or anything. I do agree that river check raise bluffing is not something people ever anticipate so it does get credit. Also, there's probably a good chance he's making a thin value bet with his sizing, but I wouldn't put a lot of faith in that.
Posted about 1 year ago
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donkrx
68 posts
Joined 02/2012
donkrx
68 posts
Joined 02/2012
Time Link to 00:32:26
You said if you had ace high on the flop like AT that you'd check call the flop bet and then check fold to further betting. In this hand you say you think he would be barreling a lot on the turn (justifying the call with 77), so then why would you ever be calling with AT on the flop if you plan to fold the turn?
Posted about 1 year ago
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