Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

So, I posted this hand in another thread (just as an example) and was asked by GC wtf I was doing preflop. I was pretty amazed about that question because I didn´t even mention anything about UTG. So, I post this hand here again to have some discussion, hopefully GC joins in and gives some insights about his idea?

Let´s start by assuming UTG is an unknown, "TAG-looking" guy. Later on I´ll give some more information and we can see if we change our opinion.

BTN: $446.20
Hero (SB): $407.00
BB: $166.60
UTG: $447.85
MP: $386.00
CO: $394.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is SB with J J
UTG raises to $12, MP calls $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $12, Hero ???

put squeeze

squeeze imo

The question is why wouldn't you squeeze rather than the other way around. Not squeezing in these spots by default is quite leaky. Them folding is great, getting backshoved on is great and when you get called by someone you're likely getting some value. Not to mention balance in common spots.

That's disappointing, I'd expected you to argue for the other option.

He posted a hand where he called which is where I asked him wtf he was doing preflop

If you're going to have a bluffing range for squeezing in this spot, you're going to want to have a value range as well. I'd say JJ fits into the latter quite nicely. Like the cheeseman said, Shania.

If villain opens more than 10% UTG then it's a mathematical leak to not squeeze preflop. Only reason to call is because UTG guy is a super nit from that position, in which case we don't have a squeezing range.

Even if someone in the hand is a huge whale I doubt the EV of calling is higher.

If anything, the EV of squeezing increases even more than the EV of calling if someone in the hand is a huge whale.

If villain opens more than 10% UTG then it's a mathematical leak to not squeeze preflop. Only reason to call is because UTG guy is a super nit from that position, in which case we don't have a squeezing range.

Even if someone in the hand is a huge whale I doubt the EV of calling is higher.

How do you learn this stuff?

If villain opens more than 10% UTG then it's a mathematical leak to not squeeze preflop. Only reason to call is because UTG guy is a super nit from that position, in which case we don't have a squeezing range.

Even if someone in the hand is a huge whale I doubt the EV of calling is higher.

That doesn't really make sense, if UTG is a nit in that position it doesn't necessarily mean we don't have a squeezing range, if he's raising wide and calling/4betting tight we just call with the bottom of our value range and squeeze with blockers - a tight UTG raiser doesn't necesarily mean he folds to 3bets too much and a wide UTG raiser doesn't necesarily mean he will call/4bet enough to protect his range fwiw.

I don't think it's a massive mistake to call JJ here, it's the worst, best hand you're squeezing for value as a default and if you don't have an image for squeezing you may only isolate yourself vs better hands or coin flips (and yeah I realize I'm basically saying 3betting OOP from the blinds when UTG raises has insanely high fold equity).

Granted I haven't done the math, but if Hero wanted to argue he didn't think UTG would 4bet as a bluff or 4bet with worse than JJ himself or call with AQ, AJs, KQs, TT and the caller wouldn't back raise a small PP, over call to set mine etc. he could probably sacrifice a little bit of EV to avoid variance and/or tilt. I'd be interested to see somebody actually defend their position with the math tho' to see how much better 3betting JJ is here given a range of assumptions.

It's definitely a fist pump squeeze IP tho', no doubt there.

doesnt have MP to have less than 25% QQ+ AK as well?

i would sqz

i assume MP is a fish and Bu a reg (stacksizes..)
Bu might backraise us from time to time nd its really nice to get it in vs him w JJ. Or we can isolate/have the initiative vs MP.

Otherwise we are getting in really bad spots post

i assume MP is a fish and Bu a reg (stacksizes..)
Bu might backraise us from time to time nd its really nice to get it in vs him w JJ. Or we can isolate/have the initiative vs MP.

This is ongame (=> no auto-reload), so we can´t read anything into stacksizes. None of the players were fish, all were roughly around 24/20-type guys, no further reads on any of them though.

Otherwise we are getting in really bad spots post

Honestly I don´t see any bad spots postflop - in a 4-way pot with JJ. Even if flop an overpair I´m not going batshit. I called mostly for setvalue.

My (very own, maybe flawed) reason for not squeezing was that I didn´t want to get it in against UTG - and chances of MP slowplaying AA, waiting for sb. to pull the trigger where non-zero as well, although that didn´t really concern me. So, instead of 3bet/fold JJ and waste it´s monster-potential, I decided to not 3bet. But I guess all of you who are advocating squeezing are stacking off anyway?

Not wanting to get 4b by UTG is an emotional reason, not one based on math etc. You're roughly flipping vs TT+/AQ+. If they're not stacking off TT/AQ, then note that QQ+/AK is only 2.6% of starting hands. and 2% if you hold Ax, making this a very good bluff squeezing spot for you. If you go $56, it only has to work 55% of the time as a bluff. UTG is probably opening ~15% of hands, so without the blocker he'll easily fold enough from him. And MP is more likely to backshove underpairs once UTG has folded, and BU even more likely once MP has folded. And if the players behind you aren't jamming their small PPs on you but only their premiums against which JJ would be priced out, you can squeeze this spot with every Ax and Kx being 26% of hands or so very profitably. If you can't squeeze JJ here profitably you're playing way too passive (and that's actually a reason for them not to flat their premiums).