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Poker Stars $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1345653
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MP: $423.50
CO: $682.00
Hero (BTN): $641.85
SB: $1942.65
BB: $724.90
UTG: $412.70

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with 7 7
3 folds, Hero raises to $10, SB raises to $24, BB calls $20, Hero calls $14

Flop: ($72.00) A A 7 (3 players)
SB bets $36.00, BB folds, Hero calls $36

Turn: ($144.00) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $86.50, SB raises to $173, Hero thinks "omg, just FML"

Villain: 52/20/1,1/41 - 174 hands
3bt: 4,7% so far.

He was a passive Fish on a heater:
Before he called vs. another REG a 3bet IP w ATo and called on a QJ4r7-Board an over-Potsize-cbet and then also an jam on the Turn -> River was obv. a King

Once I got C/Minraised I think we all can agree that Villain will jam the river always -> hence I need for a Calldown eff. 38% EQ.
This is not less.
After having used stove I can tell you in short:
It depends on if he would play this way often enough AK as well.

Sidenote: Before he C/Minraised on the turn, he has needed a little time and started an extra-cool chataction with asking me if I have QQ....
Readless you probably can interpret it in both ways...

Questions:
1.) Do you calldown here for 160 BB facing the C/Minr.
2.) Do you think we have to bet the turn?
I rly thought before i was finally betting if a check is not better -> reasons:
a.) a hand like KK will anyways not call 2streets here, so I can checkback and extract from this hand on the river value - maybe even easier and more on average.
b.) Obv. a fish could play his nuts from time to time so super-tricky and I hate my life when I get here much action.
But reason a.) is here the primary reason, I think.

I'm not sure if I would've called anyways but chat leads me to fold.

Without that it depends on what we think that he thinks his nuts range is. Like is he only doing this with AA, AQ, QQ or does he think that AK/AJ are the nuts here too?

I think basically fish + chat before raising = AQ or AA a huge % of the time.

As for checking back the turn, that's an interesting spot given our villain. Given the other hand that you talked about though, I think that there is probably too much value to not bet.

I'm not sure if I would've called anyways but chat leads me to fold.

Without that it depends on what we think that he thinks his nuts range is. Like is he only doing this with AA, AQ, QQ or does he think that AK/AJ are the nuts here too?

I think basically fish + chat before raising = AQ or AA a huge % of the time.

As for checking back the turn, that's an interesting spot given our villain. Given the other hand that you talked about though, I think that there is probably too much value to not bet.

+1

what about the turnbetsize?
feels like we could bet much bigger vs that kind of a fish since he`s not gonna fold his medium strength hands - no matther if we bet 86.50$ or 112$ + there`s no reason to have a balanced betsize vs him

Without that it depends on what we think that he thinks his nuts range is. Like is he only doing this with AA, AQ, QQ or does he think that AK/AJ are the nuts here too?
.

Exactly, but honestly -> you don`t have in 95%+ such a specific read on a fish when this spot appears.

@From02Hero:
Yeah, my betsize was for sure a mistake and too small.
But back to the topic of the hand:
So i guess checkingback could be in this spot on the turn ok vs. a fish, but maybe not vs. such a huge station.
And as played, you both would have folded the turn, is this correct?

i absolutely disagree checking back the turn there (just cause we`re afraid of getting x/raised?)
-> we`re only losing value

tbh i dunno if i`m good enough to fold the turn in-game.

but i`m not sure if folding the turn there is the right play either

- you`re betsizing could make him think his AK (mb sometimes AJ) is good

- i`d maybe call the turn an reevaluate after his action on the river (we got ~408$ left pot is about 490$ - there could be a chance he`s only betting like 100$-200$ with his non-fullhouses but thats just speculating - idk

i hope what i`m trying to say makes sense - but really not sure about this

i absolutely disagree checking back the turn there (just cause we`re afraid of getting x/raised?)

tbh, this was not my main reasoning.
I just think that vs. a normal fish you will not get 2-streets value of KK or s spiked Q by betting twice.
big.
Indeed I think that you will get much more value from these part of his range by chechingback:
- he can then check the river as well and after you checkedback the turn, a fish will usually call much lighter even very big bets -> then i would bomb it rly close to Pot.
- he could bet smallish (a kind of blockbet) and you can raise small, so that he will often enough make a curiousity-call...

I just think I get from a normal fish more value vs. the part of his range which I beat, then by betting the turn.
That is likely not true vs. this station.

Idk, tbh once you call here the C/Minr. (look at his line: gay3bet preflop - half PS cbet 3-way - C/MINRaiseTurn - imo this line is mostly rly strong, depending what he views as strong),
I rly think that you will see a riverjam in 95%+.

So you rly have to make imo the whole decision on the turn and not on the river imo.

tbh, this was not my main reasoning.
I just think that vs. a normal fish you will not get 2-streets value of KK or s spiked Q by betting twice.
big.
Indeed I think that you will get much more value from these part of his range by chechingback:
- he can then check the river as well and after you checkedback the turn, a fish will usually call much lighter even very big bets -> then i would bomb it rly close to Pot.
- he could bet smallish (a kind of blockbet) and you can raise small, so that he will often enough make a curiousity-call...

I just think I get from a normal fish more value vs. the part of his range which I beat, then by betting the turn.
That is likely not true vs. this station.

you say this^^^ but you also said:

"Before he called vs. another REG a 3bet IP w ATo and called on a QJ4r7-Board an over-Potsize-cbet and then also an jam on the Turn -> River was obv. a King"

Seems to me that this guys not going to be folding much of anything that he gets there with.

As for the read that he's going to value any ace as the nuts, yeah it's a tough read to develop, but paying attention to any hands that he's put in an agressive action postflop that get to showdown can end us some insight on it. Most fishes logic relates mostly to their absolute hand strength but there are varying degrees of "scared of the actual nuts". This is something that I look for in fish, but you're right, it's not easy.

you say this^^^ but you also said:

"Before he called vs. another REG a 3bet IP w ATo and called on a QJ4r7-Board an over-Potsize-cbet and then also an jam on the Turn -> River was obv. a King"

Seems to me that this guys not going to be folding much of anything that he gets there with.

As for the read that he's going to value any ace as the nuts, yeah it's a tough read to develop, but paying attention to any hands that he's put in an agressive action postflop that get to showdown can end us some insight on it. Most fishes logic relates mostly to their absolute hand strength but there are varying degrees of "scared of the actual nuts". This is something that I look for in fish, but you're right, it's not easy.

as said, I have actually told that my ch-back-plan for my reasoning is not good vs. him b/c of my read.
Against other fish-types i feel that it can be good for stated reasons.

With all your other thoughts i agree of course, but honestly you will not get always such a read when you need it (I haven`t played btw. with him together all the 174hands which are his sample, but maybe so 40 -> rest of the HHs are...)
At the point of the hand i haven`t known if he is the type of fish who only gay3bets preflop QQ+ or also AK and even hands like AQ,AJ, maybe KQ....
There are for sure fishes who do not perceive AK as the total nuts preflop and make only this gay3bets with premiums....

As you can see, it is a tough spots b/c in reality I have to start guessing from his prefloprange, what makes it rly difficult.
But the sad reality is that this will happen not so rarely that you are in an uncommon spot vs. a recreational fish with that you have played a couple of hands and have no helpful information that can refer to this spot (after faced the C/Minr. obv.)

So the whole thread is questionable. But anyways I would have been just interested in basically how other solid REGs would guess here based on their own experiences and memories in this spot and hence react to the C/Minr. - > I mean sometimes we are just in such spots and have to play and guess...

Anyways good thoughts on how important it is in general to try to figure out what a fish perceives as to be strong.

like villain played the hand it seems like a bluff to me for one reason:
i would play a squeeze / bluff the same way.

honestly i cant fold 77 here - just call and see what he does @river and call it off or even shove river if its a 2 or something to get max value off any AK/AJ/A10 and i think he has to call it off cause of the odds.

just my 2 cents! (but im just a micro/smallstakes player)

there are fishes 3betting small with Ax hands like AT AJ AQ and 3betting bigger with AK and JJ+

it`s really kind of a guessing game and a very sick spot since we don`t have that many reads on the fish

maybe the question is do we wanna push the variance playing the guessing game vs the fish or not

btw if he keeps on betting the turn, and shoves the river are u always calling?

i must admit that im calling this 9/10 times.

you consider clearly folding over calling from02hero?

btw if he keeps on betting the turn, and shoves the river are u always calling?

This will imo rarely happen b/c the fish would have to ovejam the river.
If this would happen, this would be also a tough spot like here - basically you cannot know 100% his range and hence likely no one can blaming you for not folding here or there.
But imo it is also ok to fold then.

@eatyafish:
In this spot I don´t have to call and see what he will do on the river b/c it is already clear what he will do -> he will imo shove after having used this line in 98%+.
Hence you have to consider his C/Minr. like a C/Jam abd calculate you effective Odds this way...

like villain played the hand it seems like a bluff to me for one reason:
i would play a squeeze / bluff the same way.

This kind of logic is called projection, where we project our tendencies upon our opponents, and can significantly hinder your growth as a player. It's not about what you would do in your opponent's shoes, it's about what your opponent would do in their own shoes!

Remember to always be thinking about ranges and about relative hand strength (my hand has x% equity vs my opponent's range) not just absolute hand strength (I have a full house).

then say he`s just bet/betting turn river what do u do?

then say he`s just bet/betting turn river what do u do?

calldown, pretty easily tbh.
When we would normalish big betted Turn and River, then I would assume readless that the lieklihood of him having some random Ax-combos is much much higher than when he takes a
" half PS-cbet Flop - C/Minr. Turn"Line.

@2fouroffsuit:
lol, I thought that the quoted comment of this post was even not serious, because it is so ridic.
is