Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $10(BB) Replayer
Hero ($1,005)
BB ($1,411)
UTG ($1,665)
CO ($787)
BTN ($1,845)

Dealt to Hero Q 7

fold, fold, BTN raises to $30, Hero raises to $105, fold, BTN calls $75

FLOP ($220) 6 K T

Hero bets $125, BTN calls $125

TURN ($470) 6 K T 6

Hero bets $305, BTN calls $305

RIVER ($1,080) 6 K T 6 Q

Hero... $470 behind.


villain is 22/17 and a decent reg.
the notes i have on him are that he raise/called AJo ip against me. checked behind AK on AQT instead of a cbet in BU vs blind. and that he cant make tough laydowns, but that might definetly be a tilt note after one of my dpew bluffs went wrong....

he open BU 47%, fold to 3bet 55%, but 80% on the BU (sample 15), 4bet 17%.
his fold to cbet in 3bet pots is 38% (8).
as for my image, i 3bet about 18% here from the small blind and have around 80% cbet in 3bet pots.

the hand: i think preflop and flop should be somewhat standard, slightly too weak to call, he folds a decent amount so i 3bet it. flop i cbet my fd.
on the turn i think my option is bet or give up as i cant c/c here. i decide to bet, expect to take it down against all his floats and peels and still have EQ if called. i think i should have made it a bit smaller to have a better river barrel. i think if he has Tx here hes peeling one more but then lets go, not sure about a K (probably not, its a TP in a 3bet pot).
river i realize my bad turnbet size. i thought if i bet here, my range looks pretty polarized, and he might bluffcatch me light, so i decided to actually bet for value. other than that i think i could just check/fold

the hand: i think preflop and flop should be somewhat standard, slightly too weak to call, he folds a decent amount so i 3bet it.

i fold pre 100%

and i wouldnt necessarily cbet but thinking about c/calling the flop

i fold pre 100%

and i wouldnt necessarily cbet but thinking about c/calling the flop

why do you want to c/c flop?

I´d never c/c the flop. Why give up the control about the hand?

What about betting pot on flop and shoving the turn?

Funny spot. I mean, on the one hand it is the perfect card for you to get him to fold Tx if you have like A7cc/98cc/87cc and if he knows that and really is a little bit callhappy, he might call with Tx. but in general I think he has to fold it so you don't have a valuebet here. I can't see him betting a Tx on the river, so it becomes a c/f

But, tbh, I don't think it really matters if you shove or c/f here.

Thinking about pot flop+shove turn, I like it and I think we have the perfect hand for it. But I think there are 2 problems: The first problem I see here is the 3betting range of hero (18%). If hero cbets 80% of the time in general I think it gets pretty hard for him to not reach a weak range by betting pot and cbetting like 1/2 pot with his bluffs. I have a problem finding a good way to put which part of his value range into the 1/2 and the pot range. The 2nd problem: the tendency of villain to float a lot. I think we get him to fold more hands on the flop, but on the turn his range improves (>=6x often hits pair/gs/oesd or pair+gs/oesd etc), so I don't think we are maximizing our fe on the turn by pot/shove

Maybe I am leveling myself here a little bit, but I think the "standard" line makes more sense here.

In this spot your actual range needs to be balanced on the flop. 3bet button open then cbet flop happens often so if your actual range is unbalanced you will get owned. Pot flop is pretty hard to balance with bluffs.

Bet sizing is bad in this hand in general. You can go smaller on every street to achieve the same thing. Do you usually leave yourself with less than pot left on the river in 3 bet pots and rarely bluff? If so you should just pot flop and ship turn with your entire range since villain will(should) jam the turn with his entire range that's continuing and you save yourself from making a incorrect fold ever.

yeah sizing is pretty wack if you're going to bet that turn. either go smaller and triple a normal runout or go bigger and get it in by the turn.