Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

well even if villain is an idiot i wouldnt be too confident on this board. its really hard for hero to gain foldequity by helping cards on turn+river, simply because its an all low flop+fd and we are out of position. still i dont see any other possibility than barreling this.

i think in such spots its way more likely to get called down, simply because its a must for hero to bet any2 that he wants to continue to play on this board. i can see 66 calling down here as well as 9xs and such.. maybe even 5x

He doesn't just have the nfd, he has a nfd and a gutshot to a wheel; even bad players like to raise combo draws, especially agressive ones although I didn't know that when i posted.

I did mean to write "he *almost* never has the AcXc" though, not never . You're right, it's not totally gone, I just discount it more.

As for how often we have to win; this is more a consideration on whether to even fire the turn barrel imo than the sizing. If we fire another $25 on the turn, the combination of the change in his calling range (ie. He probably folds something like 75s if he has it there for $100 and maybe he doesn't for $75? Hard to quantify and probably not a huge difference, but it's still there) plus the fact that we get that $25 back along with his $25 on flush cards, along with alot of the cards we're bluffing on a large amount of the time, subsidizes the additional cost of our turn bluff by alot, possibly by more than the $25 we add.

However, if we don't think villain will call turn fold river very often, the idea of betting turn ourselves becomes much less ideal unless we make it more of a blocking bet imo.

I'd write more and grammar check but work beckons.

No answers to my question?

No answers to my question?

Which question did you mean, this one?

The question is.. how often do we have to win on the river?

I thought it was a rethoric question. Do you mean when we shove the river or do you mean when we barrel the turn as a bluff?

if we bluff the turn how often do we need to win on the river to justify a bigger turn bet?

if we bluff the turn how often do we need to win on the river to justify a bigger turn bet?

If our bluff on the river succeeds > 50% we gain from any $ that goes into the pot on the turn. Not sure if that was what you meant?

I think that in general, your line as played looks exactly like a flush. The board run-out is such that, any of your turn value-brl'ing range prob. wouldn't thin-value jam the river, ESPECIALLY after you only 3/5 potted the turn.

If you had a hand like 77 or TT, would you be 3/5'ing the turn then thin-jamming his river, hoping .. what? IDK ... say A5/66 hero calls you?

Villain's range is something like 5x/66/77/9x ( which are all pretty similar strength here), 67, and fds. I'd expect most of his 1P hands to fold the river, obv a flush gets it in. 67 would be a tough spot for him.

As played, I think i like making the river like $108. It gets lite calls that will fold to a shove, and might induce from something weak. Any flush will shove over you anyway ( hopefully 2P also), but you do lose value from a str8.

Id defo bet turn bigger for balance. I think your line is fine. However, sometimes checking the river could be better imo. If he gets there with a very wide range, he should be capable of turning a lot of hands into bluffs (unless he's really passive in general).

if we bluff the turn how often do we need to win on the river to justify a bigger turn bet?

Pretty interesting question and as a metter of fact i don't even know where to start to find an answer...Could you show me please?...

Just chiming in to say one thing...

He never has A X


This is not correct.

I think i agree with B-rye88 here...Well maybe not "never" but i think it's unlikely...He seems a bad aggro player...Tackleberry said

- He c/r a low 2suited flop with AK + fd.

But called 2 streets with the nfd...Here with A X he has nfd+gs+oc...It's really unlikely he's not raising...Not saying that raising would be bad uh...Just that i think that he's likely to raise...

Considering the fact he seems bad i think i like the shove on the river...I think that villain range is pretty weak but you never know what a bad player can call you with...

I suggest that you think about what equity actually means. That is likely the root of the problem.

You should expect to spend a couple of weeks on this problem. Create a some games. Try to do EV calculations. Think about what position means.